DraftKings Week 1 Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL Season. A lot of us weren’t sure we’d get here. It’s going to be a weird season, but there’s something comforting about being able to sit on our couch on Sunday afternoon, forget about COVID, wildfires, and whatever else 2020 has thrown at you, and sweat some DFS. Let’s make some money.
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
In Week 1, we have a near-max set of games to pick from, with no teams on byes (but a double-header on Monday Night)
Byes: None
Thursday Night Football: HOU @ KC
Sunday Night Football: DAL @ LAR
Monday Night Football: PIT @ NYG
Monday Night Football: TEN @ DEN
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
The quarterback discussion will start every week with Lamar Jackson ($8,100). In 2019, he hit 3x value in 13-of-15 games, and 4x value in 9. There was no more reliable player in DFS. In 2020, he starts off at a price $100 higher than his highest 2019 price. He also boasts the highest total on the slate, at home against a Cleveland team he had success against in 2019, scoring 26 and 33 points in two matchups. He’ll be the highest owned-QB in all formats and is the safest choice in cash.
The other end of the spectrum has Tyrod Taylor ($5,600) making his Chargers debut on the road against the Bengals. My offseason QB research revealed little difference between home and road QBs at Taylor’s price point, though. Taylor was a cash QB favorite during his Buffalo days thanks to his rushing floor, and I like him in that spot here as well. He has weapons that will make his job easier, with RAC monsters in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. If you’re looking to spend down at QB, Taylor offers significant savings in a plus matchup.
The other two guys that will make up my QB core are Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800) and Cam Newton ($6,100). Garoppolo’s 49ers boast the second-highest implied total of the slate at 27 points, but he’s priced at just QB17. By pairing him with his RB (who I’ll mention in the next section), you can get cheap exposure to a high total. Newton looks healthy, and while I’d like a week of proof of that fact before trusting him in cash, his rushing floor and matchup make him an appealing option. Newton is one of the best fantasy QBs in NFL history when healthy, so he offers significant upside at this price.
Running Back
Just like the quarterback discussion starts with Lamar Jackson, the running back discussion starts with Christian McCaffrey ($10,000). McCaffrey’s 2019 was the best DraftKings season of all time, beating 2016 David Johnson by 70 points. He begins 2020 priced $2,100 higher than the next highest RB. As in past seasons, the early release of Week 1 pricing means that injuries and depth chart shuffling has created value down the slate, so there’s no reason we can’t fit McCaffrey this week. As if you needed more reasons to start him, he got a QB and OC upgrade upgrade this summer, too. Fire him up.
With no Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, or Derrick Henry on the main slate, the next tier of RBs is shallow, but presents a couple good options.
- Dalvin Cook ($7,900) has a home matchup with a Green Bay defense that was one of the league’s worst against the run in 2019. Cook went off for 31.1 points in this game last season and should once again be the focal point of the Vikings offense. Cook should have the lowest ownership of these three in GPPs.
- Austin Ekeler ($7,000) has the volume and matchup we look for at this price point. Ekeler averaged 27 DraftKings PPG in Melvin Gordon’s absence and should be prime to pick up where he left off.
- Josh Jacobs ($6,800) gets a Panthers defense at home that looks to have one of the weaker DLs in the league. Indications out of Las Vegas are that Jacobs will have an increased passing game role as well. Of the three, Jacobs is my top cash play (especially if you’re pairing with McCaffrey).
Related | Emergency Picks: Players to add to your Week 1 DFS lineups if you’re low on funds
Moving down the pricing list, there are two mid-priced backs I think offer excellent value. Raheem Mostert ($5,800) and Mark Ingram ($5,500) are the lead backs on the offenses with the highest two implied totals. After finishing the season strong, Mostert looks like he’ll begin the season as San Francisco’s lead back. Kyle Shanahan has been unpredictable in his RB usage since taking over, so Mostert may be took risky for cash. However, he makes for a high-upside GPP play, especially stacked with the 49ers DST. Ingram faces competition from 2nd-round pick J.K. Dobbins, but I’m weary of how much he’ll eat into Ingram’s workload right off the bat. Ingram’s pricetag is also $1,300 lower than where it ended the 2019 season. Ingram has as much touchdown upside as any back on the slate, and is a big value at his price.
A sneaky GPP play here is Todd Gurley ($6,100). I expect ownership to be depressed with the options below (just mentioned) and above (Miles Sanders) him. However, he’s in a game with a high total, steps into a role that should get high volume, and has a matchup against a Seattle defense that was 23rd in DVOA against the run in 2019, and that was when they had Jadaveon Clowney.
If we want to cram Lamar Jackson, McCaffrey, and any decent WRs into our lineup, we’ll need to find some cheap volume in the flex. Enter Antonio Gibson ($4,000). The Washington Football Team rookie RB garnered hype all offseason, but it turned into something more with the releases of Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. Now the de facto starter, Gibson offers huge value thanks to his receiving chops, explosive play potential, and now volume.
Other options include Chris Thompson ($4,000) and James Robinson ($4,000). The two Jacksonville RBs are both potentially viable options at minimum price. Thompson has long been a reliable receiving option for DFS players looking for cheap points, but Robinson is the projected starter. The Indianapolis defense probably isn’t one we’ll target too frequently. At minimum price, though, these guys could hit value on volume alone. In cash, Thompson is a clear safer option than Robinson, but Gibson is the play if going this low.
Wide Receivers
It’ll be difficult getting to high-priced WRs in cash, but there are three opposing WR pairs that make excellent GPP stacks.
- Of course, Michael Thomas ($9,000) was an absolute beast last year, posting the best WR season on DraftKings since 2015. He gets a Tampa Bay defense that he torched for 44.2 points in Week 5 and 28.4 in Week 11. Meanwhile, 2019 WR2 Chris Godwin ($7,100) will be Tom Brady’s new Julian Edelman in the slot. With Mike Evans banged up, he could be in for a big target share right off the bat.
- A slightly cheaper stack starts with Davante Adams ($7,300). Adams looks like he’ll be a target hog again after Green Bay didn’t add any weapons in the offseason. On the other side of the ball, Adam Thielen ($6,700) has little competition for targets in Minnesota after the departure of Stefon Diggs.
- Staying in the NFC North, Allen Robinson ($6,500) has a matchup against a Lions defense that lost Darius Slay in the offseason. He’ll try to go catch-for-catch with Kenny Golladay ($6,200), who admittedly has a tough matchup against Chicago’s Kyle Fuller. However, Golladay went off for 28.8 points when these two teams met in Week 13 of last year, and a respectable 14.7 in their first meeting. (Friday practice update: Kenny Golladay is DOUBTFUL for Sunday’s game)
Related | Feeling Flexy: Week 1 DFS Targets Under $5K
The highest I’ll likely go for my WR1 in cash is Terry McLaurin ($5,600), or Jamison Crowder ($5,200). Both look to be target hogs in fairly condensed offenses. Their upsides are capped due to their matchups and the offenses they play in (both have implied totals of under 20 points). McLaurin’s a stud though, and can shine in any situation, and Crowder can hit value on receptions alone. One thing to keep in mind with McLaurin: in cash, we generally want to limit your exposure to bad offenses. The Washington offense has an implied total of just 18.25 points, so I wouldn’t play both him and Gibson. In GPPs, McLaurin/Gibson make a great stack to run with some Eagles, like DeSean Jackson ($4,900).
My favorite breakout WR for 2020 is Marquise Brown ($5,100). He has all the tools and is in a great situation for it. I’m all for stacking Brown and Lamar Jackson in cash; Jackson is safe enough due to his legs that the stack’s riskiness is limited. Kendrick Bourne ($5,000) is somewhat the last man standing after injuries to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Hurd. Aiyuk practiced on Thursday, but there’s still more than enough workload projected for Bourne that you can fire him up in any format.
Some under-5k options I like in cash start with Allen Lazard ($4,900). As mentioned earlier, the Packers didn’t bring in much help for the passing game, so Lazard looks nailed into the starting slot position. Rodgers showed some trust in Lazard towards the end of the season and I expect that to continue. In Las Vegas, Tyrell Williams’ injury leaves two rookies and Hunter Renfrow ($4,500) as the top receiving options. Third-rounder Bryan Edwards ($4,200) seems the trendier pick, but in Week 1, I expect Renfrow to be the top option.
Tight Ends
TE is typically where we get our savings to pay up for RB. George Kittle ($7,200) is prohibitively expensive in cash. In GPPs, he’s my favorite TE of the week. He’s basically a WR1 on the team with the second-highest total on the slate, except he’s a TE, and Arizona hemorraged points to TEs last year. In cash, Zach Ertz ($5,800) is likely the highest-priced TE worth paying up for. On an Eagles offense still lacking receiving targets, he should get better volume than a similarly-priced WR.
Hayden Hurst ($4,300) steps into the Austin Hooper role in Atlanta. He’ll offer cheap exposure to a high-total game. If he gets even 75% of Hooper’s volume, this is a steal. Hurst is my safest TE play of the slate.
If you’re really spending down, the top two options are Ian Thomas ($3,400) and Chris Herndon ($3,300). Both are in roles that should give them more than enough volume to approach value, even if they don’t find the end zone. They come with some risk though (as cheap TEs do). Thomas has a lot of competition for targets with McCaffrey, Moore, Anderson, and Samuel. Herndon barely played last year. Still, Thomas has a matchup with a Raiders team we’ve liked to target with TEs in the past.
Herndon has shined in his role when healthy, and the Jets don’t have many passing game targets after losing Robby Anderson to Carolina. He also has concerns with his team’s implied total. In cash, we won’t want too much exposure to this Jets offense implied for just 16.25 points, so we’ll have to choose between Herndon and Crowder.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points: all it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
Related | Steaming Defenses: Week 1
The high-priced option for me is the Patriots ($3,200). They get a turnover-prone QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick standing behind a shaky Miami offensive line. Recall this defense scored 37 points against Miami in Week 2 last year.
$400 down is the Chargers ($2,800). Their top-tier pass rush gets a Cincinnati offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year, and a rookie QB making his NFL debut behind it. Green Bay ($2,600) is a GPP option at the same price range. Their elite pass-rush gets a Vikings offensive line that it scored double-digit points against in both matchups last year.
The punt option is Washington ($2,000). They sneakily had the fourth-best adjusted sack rate at FootballOutsiders in 2019. Now they’ve added #2 overall pick Chase Young and get a Philadelphia offensive line that’s banged up. There’s a real possibility of a goose egg in the scoring column here, but it also won’t take much to pay off this salary.
