DraftKings Week 1 Pricing Preview
Analyzing DraftKings Week 1 pricing before preseason games have even started has always been somewhat of a vain exercise and this season is no different. With a short offseason, players opting out, and the very existence of the season in question, we know that a lot will change between now and the first games of 2020.
One of the things we can look at this early in the process is deviations from redraft PPR ADP, since both pricing and ADP are based on similar information. Some of the deviations will be explained by Week 1 matchups, but others may exploitable differences in DraftKings’ pricing algorithm.
*ADP data from FantasyPros, excluding players not on the Week 1 DraftKings main slate (for example, Lamar Jackson is the #2 QB behind Patrick Mahomes per ADP, but is compared to his DK rank as the #1 since Mahomes isn’t on the Main Slate in Week 1).
Quarterbacks
Most Overpriced based on ADP – Tom Brady, $6500 @NO
The Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay is highly anticipated by DraftKings pricing, bumping his price up $500 from its year-end finish at $6000. His redraft ADP of 9 isn’t quite as optimistic, and that’s before taking into account a tough road matchup against New Orleans in Week 1.
As noted in my 2019 DraftKings Review, underdog QBs (who underperformed favored QBs) around Brady’s price of $6500 averaged 19.92 DK PPG, a fair bit higher than Brady’s 2019 average output of 17.4. Of course, Brady’s weapons in 2020 will be leaps and bounds better than he had in New England, but with a limited offseason to adapt to his new surroundings, QB5 is aggressive for my taste and limits his upside.
Also of note
Phillip Rivers ($6000), Teddy Bridgewater ($5900), Derek Carr ($5900), and Gardner Minshew ($5800) all had the same overpricing as Brady at four slots above ADP. But at QBs 12-15, there’s less risk in their overinvestment. Moreover, they generally find themselves in better situations Week 1, with each either at home or favored.
Most Underpriced based on ADP – Baker Mayfield, $5700 @BAL
Baker Mayfield makes his second appearance in an offseason DraftKings piece at YardsPer, the first as the runner-up Least Valuable QB of the 2019 season. Redraft players are expecting a bounce-back, making him the 15th QB off the board, 11th of the Main Slate QBs. However, DraftKings players may need to wait a week before investing in the Baker Mayfield Redemption Tour, as he gets a road matchup with a stingy Baltimore defense to start the 2020 season. As the 19th- highest priced QB, he has some value as contrarian GPP option, but that price is a fair reflection of his Week 1 outlook.
Other Notes
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5800) finds himself in a situation that checks all the boxes we look for in a QB: he’s a home favorite against a poor pass defense. San Francisco has the second-highest implied total on the slate. But, Jimmy G is just the 17th-highest priced QB on the slate.
Lamar Jackson checks in with a whopping $8100 price tag, starting the 2020 season $100 higher than his highest 2019 price. Of course, he only fell short of 3x-ing that price three times in 2019, so he’ll be very much in play at this price.
Running Backs
Most Overpriced based on ADP – James White, $6000 vMIA
The New England backfield was a mess for fantasy in 2019, with Sony Michel ($4600) earning my Least Valuable RB designation. White was slightly better thanks to DraftKings’ PPR format, but still only met 3x value twice. Despite this, White begins 2020 with a price $100 higher than his highest 2019 mark set Week 17, coincidentally, in the same home matchup against Miami as he has in Week 1. He scored 11.7 points in that matchup, but meeting cash value in this matchup would mean beating that mark by 50%. White has a solid floor in this game, scoring at least 11 points in 12 of 16 games last year, but no ceiling, failing to hit 15 points in 9 of those 12 games. Until his price comes down, I’m fading White.
Also of note – Marlon Mack, $5300, @JAX (RB17)
DraftKings has gone overly cautious on the Indianapolis backfield to begin 2020. They’ve priced Jonathan Taylor at $5700 (RB17), and Marlon Mack $400 lower at RB21. Redraft players are clearly expecting Taylor to seize the feature duties, taking him as the 22nd RB off the board—15th of this slate—and fading Mack (RB31 of the slate). The split may be more even than that in Week 1, but it’s still hard to see Mack living up to his price.
Most Underpriced based on ADP – DeAndre Swift, $4900, vCHI
Rookies frequently tend to be priced lower than ADP due to the implicit assumption that they’ll be less valuable at the beginning of the season than the end. That being said, I do like Swift’s value right out of the gate here. Detroit draws a Chicago defense that will be without stud NT Akieem Hicks manning the middle of the defense. The split between Swift and Kerryon Johnson ($4400) will be the true determinant of the upside of either play. If Johnson holds onto his starting role through preseason, he’s a great value in his own right. But this is a spot Swift can excel in from day 1.
Other Thoughts
In my 2019 DraftKings Recap, I pointed out the failure of high-priced RBs not named Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) and said “The gap between McCaffrey and the No.2 back in Week 1 of the 2020 season will be interesting to see.” Well here we are, and McCaffrey comes in at an incredible $2,100 more expensive than RB2 Dalvin Cook. Of course, we are without Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott on the main slate. They likely would have narrowed that gap. McCaffrey, of course, is very much in play at $10,000. He gets a QB and offensive coordinator upgrade from 2019 and gets a Las Vegas team travelling across the country.
The two highest team totals on the slate belong to RBs priced below $6000 and outside the top-15. Raheem Mostert ($5800) got his contract upgrade and is the presumed feature back for San Francisco after handling 53 of the 95 RB carries in the playoffs and running for 336 yards and 5 TDs. Mark Ingram finished 2019 priced at $6800 and as the RB9 on DraftKings, but starts 2020 as RB19 at $5500. Both these guys will be in-play in Week 1 despite potential challenges to playing time.
Wide Receivers
Most Overpriced based on ADP – Tyrell Williams, $5500 @CAR
The Las Vegas Raiders loaded up on WRs in the 2020 NFL Draft, spending their first pick on speedster Henry Ruggs ($5100) and a third-round pick on Bryan Edwards ($4200). The redraft community is ignoring incumbent WR1 Tyrell Williams. He’s been pushed down to the 79th WR off the board (including players off the main slate)—34 spots below Ruggs and just three above Edwards (not to mention 15 spots below slot WR Hunter Renfrow ($4500)). Meanwhile, DraftKings has Williams at WR28, $400 more expensive than Ruggs, $1000 more than Renfrow, and $1300 more than Edwards.
Personally, I lean closer towards DraftKings’ distribution of Week 1 points, but I still won’t be targeting Williams at that price. Williams ended the 2019 season at a salary of $4600. And didn’t exceed 13 points once in the second half.
Most Underpriced based on ADP – Marquise Brown, $5100 vCLE
Brown is tied with Cleveland WR Odell Beckham ($5900). And there are some WRs priced below 5k with bigger gaps. But, I’m going to highlight Brown here. Beckham’s underpricing can be chalked up to matchup, but Brown’s is exploitable. And WRs are pretty condensed at lower prices, so small price differences have big rank effects. Brown made waves a few days ago for an article reporting he had bulked up to 180 lbs. I’m not typically one to buy preseason fitness hype, but this Baltimore offense is ripe for producing a top-end fantasy WR. If Brown is healthy, his second-year leap could be one that makes early adopters a lot of money.
Other Thoughts
No WR discussion would be without Michael Thomas. Thomas begins 2020 priced at $9000. That’s in line with where he spent the second half of 2019, when his price averaged $9100 and production averaged 26 PPG. He gets a decent matchup in Week 1 at home, but additional competition for targets with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, who is in play at $5700.
After Thomas, high-priced options are slim. There’s a $1300 drop to Julio Jones ($7700), and the next four WRs are all road underdogs. In 2019, road WRs in this range from DeAndre Hopkins ($6800) to Davante Adams ($7300) significantly underperformed their home counterparts. In cash games, where every statistical advantage helps, I’ll largely be avoiding road WRs in this range, especially in suboptimal matchups.
John Ross ($4200) posted a first quarter-season pace of 64 rec, 1,312 yards, 12 TDs. He enters 2020 with a new aggressive QB. He can meet that salary on a single catch. The Chargers have a pass defense to be avoided, but their attention will be focused on A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Ross could be a week-winner – though maybe not in Week 1.
Tight Ends
Most Overpriced based on ADP – C.J. Uzomah, $3600 @PHI (TE9)
There aren’t many egregious overpricings, since Tight End pricing is so narrow. The TE15 is separated from TE30 by just $500. So while C.J. Uzomah is priced 11 spots higher than his redraft ADP, it’s only a $400 difference. Uzomah only averaged 4 PPG last year, and while the Cincinnati offense should improve with Joe Burrow under center, there’s still little reason to even invest $3800 in him in Week 1.
Most Underpriced based on ADP – Irv Smith Jr, $3100 vGB
Redraft players are largely torn on Smith and Kyle Rudolph ($3700) in the Vikings Tight End room. They are the 28th and 29th TEs off the board (including players off the main slate). DraftKings is less concerned about Smith eating into Rudolph’s production, pricing Smith $600 and 16 slots below Rudolph.
I lean towards redraft players on this one. Smith was earning an equal snap share to Rudolph by the end of last year. And he has more upside as a receiver. At a minimum, the two players should be closer in price than they are, which makes Smith a value.
Related | Finding Late Round Tight End Values In 2020 Fantasy Drafts
Other Thoughts
Ian Thomas ($3400) takes over for Greg Olsen as the #1 TE in Carolina. Thomas has had weeks as the chalk at TE when Olsen was hurt, but in 2020, he’ll be the starter week-in and week-out. That’s not reflected in his Week 1 price, however. At $3400, he offers cheap exposure to volume and I expect him to be a popular play.
