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Draftkings Thanksgiving Slate Preview
Easily one of the best days of the year if you’re a football fan and even more so as a DFS player. We get to stuff our faces and watch three isolated games all day long. The games themselves are a bit ugly but hey it’s still NFL Football. A three game slate is very different compared to a full slate. Obviously there’s less players to choose from which condenses ownership. It’s a bit of a mix of regular tournaments and Showdown. It’s good practice for the playoff slates. Game Theory is very important. How do you see the games going? If you think one game is higher scoring than the others then load up on that game. My write up will be a little different for this. I’ll Breakdown the games individually with the players and how to stack the games. Then go into how to construct your lineup to get a little different. It’s gonna be a lot to digest and just like Thanksgiving dinner you might need a nap after.
Gobble Gobble!!!
CHI @ DET
Spread: CHI -3.5
Over/Under: 42
Injuries to Monitor
Justin Fields sustained a rib injury and was brought to the hospital where an injury to his spleen was found. He’s highly unlikely to play.
Allen Robinson was unable to practice in any capacity last week due to a hamstring injury. His ability to practice at all on a short week will be telling. He could be a game time decision.
Darnel Mooney is listed as questionable with a foot injury.
Damien Williams has been dealing with a knee injury but a calf injury developed late last week as well. Montgomery has a strangle hold on the RB reps so I wouldn’t expect a less than 100% to have much of an impact anyway.
Jared Goff is dealing with an oblique injury. There was some discussion of him being active as an emergency QB in Week 11 so he does have a chance to play.
Jermar Jefferson missed Week 11 with an ankle/knee injury. It’s unlikely that the Lions rush him back now that Jamaal Williams is healthy.
Pricing
QB
Andy Dalton $5,500
Dalton came in for Fields and made an immediate impact throwing a long TD to Mooney and another long one to Goodwin later. He threw for 200 yards which Fields only accomplished twice and threw for two TDs which Fields has failed to do this season. Fields is the better fantasy option himself but Dalton is better for the Bears offense and more importantly the pass catchers.
Jared Goff $5,100
If Goff plays, he will be the lowest owned QB. You can play him, Maybe. I probably wont and definitely won’t play Boyle.
RB
D’Andre Swift $7,300
Two weeks ago, Swift had 33 carries for 130 yards. Last week he had 136 yards on 14 carries. Despite this dreadful offense, Swift is still averaging 19 DraftKings points per game. His usage gives him one of the safest floors, his ability gives him an incredible ceiling.
David Montgomery $6,000
It’s encouraging that Montgomery came back from his injury and got his workhorse toll back. He’s had the work but not so much the production barely topping 60 yards in both games. Detroit could be the remedy allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs.
Jamaal Williams $4,000
Williams was eased back last week. He’s had double digit touches in 6 of 8 weeks this season. The Lions will have to rely on the run especially if Boyle is under center.
WR
Darnell Mooney $5,700
Mooney has a TD in each of his last two games. He’s averaging just over 20 yards a catch in those games. 16 TARGETS last week. 16!!! Now granted he only caught 5 of them but that many opportunities against the Lions is enticing.
Kalif Raymond $4,600
If I’m playing a Lions WR it’s Raymond. Ok moving on.
Marquise Goodwin $3,800
Goodwin had 8 targets last week and has big play upside. He turned 4 catches into 104 yards and a TD.
TE
TJ Hockenson $5,200
It’s been an up n down season which is understandable on this offense. Hock is the best option behind Swift. He’s had seven games with 8 or more targets.
Cole Kmet $3,700
Kmet was chalk last week and disappointed. That will keep his ownership down this week. In his previous three games he had 20 targets. He’ll be used quite a bit with no Robinson.
Jimmy Graham $2,800
Graham is basically a deep dart throw for GPPS or Showdown. He’s shown his ability to score multiple times on limited targets. It’s a longshot.
DEF
CHI $3,000
DET $2,400
Breakdown
This game is gonna be ugly between two bad teams. If Goff plays it could be a close back n forth game. I dont mind Dalton paired with Mooney but most lineups will have Montgomery who should tear up this Detroit defense. I’ll have Swift as a bring back in most with Hockenson sprinkled in.
A way to get different could be playing Swift and Jamaal Williams in the same lineup. They could each get double digit touches and if they both score it would make a very unique look pretty good.
LV @ DAL
Spread: DAL -7
Over/Under: 50.5
Injuries to Monitor
Ezekiel Elliott briefly left the game against the Chiefs with what appeared to be an ankle injury. He was able to return and finish the game but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Ceedee Lamb is in the concussion protocol and is highly unlikely to clear protocol on a short week but reports are it is possible.
Amari Cooper has Covid and will be out for this game.
Pricing
QB
Dak Prescott $6,900
<span;>Dak looked awful last week and could be without his best pass catchers this week. A lack of QB talent on a small slate we don’t need a ceiling performance. Dak has multiple passing TDs in all but two games this year.
Derek Carr $5,900
Carr is averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game. 37 pass attempts a game have helped that. Carr has averaged 303 passing yards a game on the road this season.
RB
Ezekiel Elliott $8,000
Zeke being banged up and his price could keep his ownership down. Even at less than 100% he can still be effective. In a disaster of a game where he was injured he still had 15 touches. The Raiders allow the 4th most rushing yards per game.
Josh Jacobs $5,900
Jacobs has back to back games with 5 catches and at least 4 catches in his last three games. Despite missing two weeks, he’s still top 10 in goal line carries. Dallas has given up the 6th most yards per rush over the last three weeks.
Tony Pollard $5,600
With no Cooper or Lamb, Dallas is gonna rely on the running game. With Zeke banged up, Pollard should see an uptick from the 26 touches he’s seen the last two weeks. He’s averaging 5.5 yards a carry. Vegas is giving up the 4th most rushing yards per game this season.
Kenyan Drake $4,600
Drake’s usage is trending down with back to back games with only 6 touches. He’s more a dart throw in Showdowns hoping Jacob’s gets hurt.
WR
Ceedee Lamb $6,900
If Lamb plays he’s the best price per dollar WR. Play him
Michael Gallup $5,900
Although the finishing stat line doesn’t look great, Gallup had 10 targets last week. Dak’s inaccuracy was more the problem. If Lamb can’t play he’ll see closer to 15 targets. He’s averaging 10 yards per catch. He will be the highest owned WR.
Hunter Renfrow $5,600
Prior to this last game, Renfrow had 7 receptions in three straight games. He has a 20% target share and leads the team in receptions and TDs.
Bryan Edwards $3,900
Despite not being targeted, Edwards played the most snaps of WRs last week. He’s scored 2 TDs in the last four games.
Cedrick Wilson $3,500
Wilson was 2nd in snaps for WRs this past week. He will get the biggest bump in opportunity of these cheap Dallas WRs.
DeSean Jackson $3,100
Maybe an option in large field GPPs or Showdon. He’s barely being used and you’re banking on a deep bomb.
Noah Brown $3,000
Malik Turner $3,000
Shot in the dark on these two, Brown has been playing more snaps and Turner scored twice in a game. Saving salary isn’t a necessity on this slate.
Zay Jones $3,000
72% of snaps last week. That’s three straight weeks over 70%. He’s averaged 26.25 yards per catch over his last four games.
TE
Darren Waller $6,400
Waller is 1st amongst TEs in air yards and 2nd in targets. 26 targets in the last three games, Waller has reestablished himself as the clear top option for the Raiders. Dallas is bottom 10 in points per game allowed to TEs.
Dalton Schultz $5,300
Schultz has cooled down after a mid season surge but bounced back a bit last week with 6 catches on 8 targets. The Raiders allow the 3rd most points per game to TEs.
DEF
DAL $3,300
LV $2,400
Breakdown
Dallas is missing some top talent in the passing game and as a result could go run heavy. For that reason I live Tony Pollard in this game. He could see quite a bit of passing work also. Similar to Detroit, pairing Zeke and Pollard could pay off and differentiate a lineup. Zeke will likely go lower owned than he should due to injury concerns.
Dak could still be the highest scoring QB on a small slate even without his top pass catchers. If Lamb plays I love him but otherwise I will play Gallup despite him likely being the highest owned player on the slate. Dak, Gallup Schultz will likely be a popular stack. I like pairing Dak with Zeke or Pollard and Schultz as a unique stack.
Dallas hasn’t been great against the run so Jacobs is absolutely in play. I do prefer Waller as a bring back though. He offers a safe floor and a high upside. Renfrow is a good option as well for the safe floor and if I were to play a Carr stack it would be with Renfrow and Waller. Bryan Edwards is a possible low owned option that could get you a TD.
Playing Waller in the flex is a legitimate option and will help differentiate lineups.
BUF @ NO
Spread: BUF -4
Over/Under: 44.5
Injuries to Monitor
Alvin Kamara has missed the last two weeks with a knee injury. On a short week it’s hard to believe he’s back especially with Tony Jones returning from IR.
Mark Ingram is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury. It is assumed that he will play but it’s worth monitoring since he was listed as a non participant in practice.
Adam Trautman has a sprained MCL and will be out for 4-6 weeks.
Cole Beasley has been dealing with a rib injury for a couple weeks and is listed as questionable. He’s played through it and should be available for this game.
Pricing
QB
Josh Allen $7,800
Allen is averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game and has thrown multiple TDs in all but two of his games. Allen should look to run more in this one after seeing Jalen Hurts run all over the Saints defense last week.
Trevor Siemian $5,600
Siemian has produced way above expectations throwing for an average 254 yards and no less than 2 TDs in the last three games.
Taysom Hill $4,800
A large field GPP play and he could be a good one. With Kamara and Ingram injured Hill could get a ton of usage. Even if Ingram plays I think Hill could get some usage especially in goal line packages. He’ll be very low owned which is rare on a small slate.
RB
Mark Ingram $6,200
With Kamara out, Ingram has back to back games with over 100 yards from scrimmage. He could be out or limited in this game and its risky especially being in the night game.
Devin Singletary $4,900
Matt Breida $4,800
Zach Moss $4,700
Basically splitting snaps with a third a piece. They each scored a TD in week 10. It’s a crap shoot with Breida likely offering the highest upside but not by much.
Tony Jones Jr $4,000
If Kamara and Ingram can’t play, Jones will see a significant workload.
WR
Stefon Diggs $7,900
Diggs is by far the most talented WR on the slate with no Cooper or Lamb. He’ll likely be the highest owned too. He’s scored 4 TDs in the last four games.
Marquez Callaway $5,000
Callaway has a TD in three straight games. He also has big play upside averaging 14.88 yards a catch.
Emmanuel Sanders $4,800
Sanders has been mostly irrelevant after some early season success. He is still top 15 in air yards this season with a 16.6 yard average depth of target.
Cole Beasley $4,500
Beasley has been banged up and has only seen 7 combined targets in the last two games after seeing a combined 24 targets the previous two games. It’s possibly related to his injury and he could see a larger target share in this one.
Tre’Quan Smith $4,400
Smith has scored a TD in two of the last four games. He’s had 8 and 7 targets the last two weeks.
Gabriel Davis $3,600
Davis has seen limited opportunities but is a deep play threat. He had 105 yards in week 10 and has a 23.6 yard average depth of target over the last two games.
TE
Dawson Knox $4,400
After only 1 target and reception in his first week back from injury, Knox had 10 targets last week. He has the 2nd most TDs on the team despite missing three weeks due to injury.
Juwan Johnson $2,600
Johnson should see a decent amount of targets with Trautman heading to the IR. He’s scored three TDs this season on only 15 targets.
DEF
BUF $3,100
NO $2,900
Breakdown
I think the Bills will be too much for the Saints in this one. I think there will be a lot of passing on both sides in this game. Allen to Diggs and Beasley will likely be the highest owned stack. I like it but will most likely be heavier on Allen, Diggs Knox. Knox will be lower owned than the other TE options with plenty of upside.
Emmanuel Sanders will also be lower owned and could be a nice one off if you’re not going heavy on this game. He also can be used as a lower owned peice of a ln Allen stack.
I’m just not gonna try and guess on the Bills RBs especially against this Saints front.
If Ingram plays I think he’s the best play on the Saints due to the volume. I will have sprinkles of Taysom Hill though.
I like TreQuan Smith the most of the Saints WRs as a one off or to pair with Siemian. I’ll have a few Callaway shares due to the upside but lean Smith
