Do Not Draft These Players In 2021 Fantasy Football
Last week, the Yards Per Fantasy team got together to deliver “our guys.” This week, we are naming the players we are fading. This doesn’t mean we’re avoiding them at all costs, but generally we are not drafting these guys at their ADP. We make a case for why you should be wary of these guys too. If you want to hear more from our team, be sure to join us on Discord! We’re talking fantasy every day and always willing to answer your questions!
Bengals WRs
You probably won’t see me with any Bengals Wide Receivers at their current ADP this fantasy football season. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are being drafted in the middle rounds. Chase and Higgins are going back-to-back at WR 24 and 25 respectively near the middle of the fifth round, and Boyd comes in as WR 38 per ESPN’s Average Draft Position. While Higgins had a promising rookie campaign and Chase comes in from a prolific 2019 with QB Joe Burrow, I have significant concerns about each of the Cincy receivers.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
It’s not that Derrick Henry is 27 years old. Nor is it that Henry had 378 carries and nearly 400 touches last year. The reason I’m fading Henry is that he is being drafted at his absolute ceiling.
Henry is coming off the board at RB3. This makes sense considering Henry was PPR RB3 last year. However Henry’s 2020 was historic. He rushed for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. With those eye popping numbers he was still only RB3 behind Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. It shows how valuable pass catching is in PPR.
Henry would have to duplicate his historic 2020 to justify his draft capital and I don’t see that happening. Forget the inevitable cliff that 90% of RB’s hit in their age 27 season. Or the fact that Henry has almost 1,000 NFL carries which leads to another RB cliff. Derrick Henry very well may be an alien that bucks trends due to his superior physique. However, I never chase historic seasons because there is a less than 1% chance that Henry duplicates his 2020 season and he is being drafted as if 2021 will be just as fruitful.
Do not draft players at their ceiling, if Henry falls to the bottom of round one or early round two, then smash the draft button. However, drafting him in the top 5 will surely lead to disappointment.
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Mike Evans is the most over-drafted player in the top-50 this year. Nearly 20-percent of his receptions last year went for touchdowns. While it’s great that he is such a red zone threat, that’s an unsustainable touchdown rate. When we look past the scores, the numbers get real ugly. Evans commanded a career-low 109 targets in 2020 with a target share of 18-percent which was 52nd among all wide receivers. He saw a target on just 13.5-percent (No.52) of his routes. Evans has always been a downfield threat but, whether it’s because of Tom Brady at quarterback or Evans’ game declining, Evans was not used in that role nearly as much as we’ve come accustomed to seeing. His average target distance was barely over 12 yards, while his 14.1 yards per reception ranked a modest 31st. Evans accounted for just 23.4-percent of the team’s air yards which ranked outside the top-50 wideouts.
It’s clear that Evans is not the same steady producer that he has been in the past. He has become extremely volatile and touchdown-dependent. Even while scoring the fourth most touchdowns in the league, Evans still found himself scoring outside the top-30 on seven occasions in 2020. It won’t get any easier in 2021, either, with both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown returning for another Lombardi run.
