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It appears as though the Offensive Rookie of the Year award may soon be a receiver’s award – at least for 2021. Before the Sunday slate, let’s get a quick update on our front runner(s).
Subject to change in the coming weeks, I have determined rookies to make the report will qualify by achieving one of the following:
- 30 percent offensive snap share
- Scoring a touchdown
- Special circumstance
- i.e. high draft capital, relevant production despite snap share, unforeseen playing time due to game script, injury, etc.
The report will be organized by position, listing players in order of their snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, Week 3: 5.8 PPR fantasy points (WR78)
Week 3 Statistics: 98% snap share, 6 targets, 3 receptions, 38 yards, 12.8 aDoT, 0.6 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 55.5
Overview: For a blowout, DeVonta Smith had an insanely high snap share. He was weaned off in garbage time, giving light to the fact that he had opportunity to really prove himself in a divisional road game in Dallas. Instead, Smith got clamped up by college teammate Trevon Diggs. When lined up against Diggs, DeVonta Smith tallied two catches on four targets, for nine yards that included just one yard after the catch.
The worst moment for the Eagles offense on Sunday Night came on a Diggs pick six. Smith ran an out route and lost his footing making his break towards the sideline. This made the catch and run an easy play for Diggs in coverage. Hurts was deflated after this play:
A clearly frustrated Jalen Hurts says to DeVonta Smith after the INT Pick 6
“what happened?… You fell?”
Hurts passes was intended for Smith pic.twitter.com/HRFuiFDUl7
— Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) September 28, 2021
Outlook: Trevon Diggs mapped out a blueprint for how to shut down 10th overall pick, DeVonta Smith. He was physical, lunging to jam Smith at the line to disrupt any semblance of crossing concepts or a quick release. Diggs played the ball aggressively in the air, forcing Smith to win with the strength he doesn’t have. Lastly, Diggs was attentive of when the ball was released by the quarterback, not pursuing Smith until the ball was in the air. This tactic kept the rookie receiver in front of Diggs on double moves and contained in run-after-catch situations.
Regardless, DeVonta Smith remains a focal point in this offense. Even studs have down stretches, so don’t give up on him after a rough start. This is a game close to, if not at his floor.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, Week 3: 17.8 PPR fantasy points (WR19)
Week 3 Statistics: 88% snap share, 13 targets, 12 receptions, 58 yards, 2.8 aDoT, 1.12 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 59.6
Overview: Jaylen Waddle was quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s favorite target for the Dolphins in week 3. Waddle was widely used as Brissett’s safety valve, averaging 4.8 yards per reception, with a long of nine yards. Waddle lost a fumble deep in his own territory that essentially cost his team the game.
Outlook: The good was the 27.6-percent target share. The bad was the 58-yard, zero touchdown production. Waddle finished as a PPR WR2, thanks to nearly 70-percent of his scoring output coming off 12 catches. Under normal circumstances, Waddle getting 13 targets would mean game-breaker potential. If his involvement holds at this level, he’s a WR2 from here on out. Sadly, I don’t think high usage for Waddle should be expected far too often, especially when Tua comes back into the lineup.
Jaylen Waddle finished with 12 catches for 58 yards today. pic.twitter.com/voeMZXwWwE
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 27, 2021
The Dolphins host the Colts in week 4; a pass defense that is currently ranked 29th in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Waddle could be a solid streamer or DFS play this week, with potential to open a nice selling window for redraft.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals, Week 3: 22.5 PPR fantasy points (WR7)
Week 3 Statistics: 83% snap share, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 65 yards, 2 TDs, 16.2 aDoT, 3.42 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 77.9
Overview: Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow have exhibited exceptional chemistry in the first few weeks together. I don’t know which is more impressive of Chase’s first touchdown grab of week 3: blowing by the defender, or the actual catch itself. Chase (top of screen) is behind the defensive back when the ball is released, and it’s as if he got faster when he turned to locate the ball. I hope the medical staff tended to the defensive back after this play, because he got third-degree BURNED.
Another week, another @JoeyB to @Real10jayy__ deep TD! #RuleTheJungle
📺: #CINvsPIT on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/fUHZ1gXe0f— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2021
Extending his arms, Chase gets to the ball just in time, snagging it by the back nose. How does he catch this? How?! This dude isn’t playing fair.
Ja’Marr Chase proved he is not – I repeat, NOT a “one-trick pony”. There were analysts who wanted him to play another year at LSU to craft his route running, but he didn’t need LSU to do that. Watch him (top of screen) work Joe Haden on a nice dig route in the end zone, making sharp cuts to find separation. I wish the replay showed Chase instead of Burrow.
That’s TD No. 4 on the season for @Real10jayy__
WATCH on CBS pic.twitter.com/WkC7D48JNe
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 26, 2021
Outlook: Ja’Marr Chase is currently the WR11 in PPR scoring, with 42-percent of his output coming off touchdowns. Touchdown dependency is never a good thing, but being a favorite red zone target is. He plays the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night (as I am typing this). He’s due for some regression, so don’t be discouraged if it comes on a night that is notorious for giving us fluky outcomes. He’s the best of the best in this pack.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants, Week 3: 3.6 PPR fantasy points (WR90)
Week 3 Statistics: 66% snap share, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 16 yards, 2.3 aDoT, 0.52 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 54.5
Overview: Well, well, well, look who decided to show up to the Rookie Report. Kadarius Toney saw action in this one by way of injuries. If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought Toney left the game with an injury too. The first round wideout saw all three of his targets in the second quarter. Questionable utilization of Toney’s elite athleticism.
Outlook: Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are unlikely to play Sunday in New Orleans. Even with that, I have no confidence in offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to give Toney his shot. If he doesn’t start this week, it’s going to be a tough season on the bench for the Florida rook.
Dyami Brown, Washington Football Team, Week 3: -0.4 PPR fantasy points (WR149)
Week 3 Statistics: 65% snap share, 2 targets, 0 receptions, 19.0 aDoT, 1 rush, -4 yards
PFF Grade: 55.5
Overview: Dyami Brown finished 148th of the 149 receivers to touch the field in week 3. He saw one target in each half, and got an outside rush attempt that yielded his sub-zero fantasy output. Brown saw a lot of snaps for how little he was used in this contest.
Outlook: I told you he’s not worth the roster spot. Even in a negative game script with passing situations left and right, Dyami Brown finished in the negative. Not zero… NEGATIVE. He’s useless if the quarterback can’t connect with him on deep shots. Current Football Team quarterback Taylor Heinicke ranked 31st out of 34 quarterbacks in PFF grade on throws of 20-plus yards in week 3.
Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers, Week 3: 8.8 PPR fantasy points (WR53)
Week 3 Statistics: 62% snap share, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 48 yards, 6.4 aDoT, 1.85 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 76.8
Overview: Terrace Marshall had his most efficient week of the season in week 3, posting his highest yards per route run (Y/RR), yards per reception (Y/Rec), PFF grade, and passer rating when targeted. Critics will want to take away from his performance by mentioning it came against the Houston Texans, but those critics fail to realize that the Texans pass defense is currently ranked seventh in the NFL in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Marshall finished second on the team in targets, trending towards fantasy relevancy.
#Panthers Robby Anderson & Terrace Marshall Jr. Snap% by week
R. Anderson
Week 1: 81.25%
Week 2: 73.68%
Week 3: 64.38%
– Steady decrease over first 3 weeksT. Marshall
Week 1: 53.13%
Week 2: 51.32%
Week 3: 61.64%
– Notable increase week 3
– More targets, Rec. & yards pic.twitter.com/l7GNdWQouc— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) September 26, 2021
Outlook: There is a lot of hype surrounding fellow rookie tight end Tommy Tremble with the departure of Dan Arnold. Tremble is athletic enough to assume Arnold’s role, but if I’m offensive coordinator Joe Brady, I’m looking at Terrace Marshall. Dan Arnold has averaged 17 slot snaps per game through three weeks, while Marshall averaged just over 15. I see Marshall picking up the bulk of Arnold’s vacant snaps moving forward.
I predicted Terrace Marshall’s breakout would come next season, but with the Dan Arnold trade it may be right on the horizon. Pick him up if he’s available and you have the roster spot… before it’s too late.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets, Week 3: 5.2 PPR fantasy points (WR74)
Week 3 Statistics: 48% snap share, 6 targets, 3 receptions, 22 yards, 6.7 aDoT, 1.16 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 62.0
Overview: Offensive coordinator Mike LeFleur finally utilized Elijah Moore optimally. Moore’s average depth of target (aDoT) dropped drastically, from 17.2 over the first two weeks to 6.7 in week 3. Moore was given opportunities to show off his talent in open field, averaging 5.3 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec), compared to 1.0 YAC/Rec each of the two weeks prior. Moore’s unrealized air yards rank (as discussed in last week’s report) slightly increased from ninth to 13th. Still bad, but I won’t knock signs of improvement.
Elijah Moore has been creating separation all year. The big numbers are going to come in due time pic.twitter.com/Wpt3xNpWNi
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 29, 2021
Outlook: Braxton Berrios has the Jets slot role on lock this season, showing no signs of forfeiting targets any time soon. Berrios is the only player on the Jets offense finding consistent fantasy success, as their pass game ranks dead last in the NFL in all EPA metrics, per RBDSM. Until Mike LeFleur looks more like a LeFleur and less like a Jets coach, Elijah Moore isn’t worth redraft consideration. Check back on Elijah Moore next week after facing a less-threatening Titans defense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, Week 3: 1.2 PPR fantasy points (WR115)
Week 3 Statistics: 43% snap share, 1 target, 1 reception, 2 yards, -4.0 aDoT, 0.14 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 57.0
Overview: The Southern Cal rookie receiver lost his slot snaps to Kalif Raymond and TJ Hockenson in week 3. St. Brown saw his lowest target total in a close contest with the Ravens. The only good thing I have to say is that he finally picked up yards after (his only) catch, racking up six (for a net gain of two).
Outlook: Amon-Ra St. Brown’s snap share in week 1 was 64-precent. It declined to 60-percent in week 2, and most recently he dipped all the way down to 43-percent. In an important home game that the Lions had a good chance at winning (and probably should have if Justin Tucker’s leg wasn’t made of aluminum), St. Brown was eradicated from the game plan. He’s more of a dynasty stash because, as I’ve said in previous weeks, the Lions’ underneath and middle-of-the-field targets are going to the tight ends and running backs all season.
Anthony Schwartz, Cleveland Browns, Week 3: 0.0 PPR fantasy points (WR121)
Week 3 Statistics: 35% snap share, 1 target, 0 receptions, 11.0 aDoT
PFF Grade: 55.5
Overview: The Browns didn’t need to take any deep shots in this game, resulting in one target for Anthony Schwartz. Odell Beckham Jr. has returned, giving us more reason than not to believe this won’t be his last zero-point game from Schwartz.
Outlook: He’s not worth a roster spot. Any production from him (as we saw in week 1) will come from scheme, not talent.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals, Week 3: 2.4 PPR fantasy points (WR102)
Week 3 Statistics: 34% snap share, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 1 yard, -5.0 aDoT, 0.07 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 52.7
Overview: After exploding onto the scene in week 1, Rondale Moore showed how one-dimensional he currently is in week 3. The Jaguars contained him, as both of his catches came well behind the line of scrimmage. They knew what the Cardinals wanted to do with Moore and snuffed it out from the get-go.
Outlook: Moore has potential to develop into a nice slot receiver, but it’s going to take some time for him to master the nuance of the wideout position in the NFL. He’s a gadget guy this season who isn’t even matchup-dependent, because saying so would imply his usage is relatively consistent. Rondale Moore is an unpredictable boom-or-bust that needs a larger sample size to fairly evaluate.