2019 Deep Dynasty Values – Part Two: RBs And WRs
In part one of this deep dynasty values series, I reminisced about how when I was young, my father and I spent our weekends picking all of Northern New York. We searched for that next item or piece that someone discarded or wanted to discard. My father taught me that there was value in what others wanted to give up. I still do this with my father, even after graduating from law school. That’s because it’s always rewarding to take something that people perceive to have little value and watch that asset flourish.
Like the next garage sale or item to pick up on the side of the road, there are a myriad of different low-risk options that improve their dynasty value throughout a season. Last season, I acquired Tyler Boyd on a number of my teams, picking him up off of waivers or sending 2019 fourth-round rookie picks for him. The strategy of finding which low-cost assets will make that jump in the upcoming year can define your dynasty roster, and create value from nothing. Part two of this series examines running backs and wide receivers that could take that step into fantasy prominence.
Bargain Bin: Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons
2018 was a lost season for the Atlanta Falcons. Finishing 7-9, the Falcons had a laundry list of injuries to valuable pieces, both on offense and defense, including running back Devonta Freeman. Due to the Freeman injury, Ito Smith became the second-string running back, behind Tevin Coleman. Smith, a rookie out of Southern Mississippi, was a prolific runner and receiver coming out of college. He posted a 77th-percentile college dominator rating and 88th-percentile college target share. Smith struggled on the ground in his rookie season, turning 90 carries into 315 yards and four touchdowns. However, Smith excelled in the passing game, catching 27-of-32 targets for an additional 152 yards.
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With Coleman’s departure via free agency, someone will need to step into the RB2 role behind a now-healthy Freeman. In 2016 and 2017, the Falcons used Coleman as a 1B to Freeman’s 1A, resulting in both Atlanta RBs finishing in the top-30 at the position in those seasons. Smith enters the season in that number two running back role. While Smith does have stand-alone value with Freeman present, Freeman has missed 16 games due to injury since his overall RB1 finish in 2015. Smith would be thrust into a prominent role if Freeman went down. Currently, Smith is being valued at approximately the 2019 Rookie 2.11. However, he could likely be had for a third, a great value considering he is a potential flex-worthy option, with room to grow if Freeman goes down.
Deep Dive: Qadree Ollison, RB, Atlanta Falcons
If you aren’t a believer in Smith, the same exact logic applies to Qadree Ollison. The Falcons selected Ollison in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. At Pitt, Ollison played behind James Conner and took over after Conner left for the NFL. At 6-1, 228 pounds, Ollison is a punishing runner, who prefers to run through defenders and not around them. However, Ollison also possesses above-average speed, pass protection abilities, and was a capable receiver in college. Ollison offers the Falcons a refreshing option in their run scheme in comparison to Freeman and Smith. After only a few weeks in training camp, Ollison is already expected to “pick up some of the slack” in short-yardage situations.
According to DLF’s trade analyzer, Ollison is equal to the 2019 Rookie 4.08 or a 2020 fifth. Ollison is a great target in the later rounds of a rookie draft, and will likely have a role to play in 2019.
Bargain Bin: Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
Before you go clicking off this article, hear me out! Zay Jones has not had the most tremendous start to his NFL career. A second-round pick out of Eastern Carolina, Jones profiles as a top tier athlete, measuring out at 6-2, 200 pounds, and an 88th-percentile SPARQ-x score. However, fantasy owners remember Jones for his abysmal rookie season, posting a 36.5-percent catch rate. Off the field, meanwhile, he’s known for the unusual circumstances surrounding his arrest in March of 2018.
Regardless, Jones was able to bring it together last season, catching passes from the rookie Josh Allen. Very quietly, Jones finished as the WR35 in PPR scoring. More importantly, once Allen returned from injury, Jones was the WR20 from weeks 10-17. Jones was a startable asset for most of the year, and will likely look to take another step forward in 2019.
On the Dynasty Trade Value Chart through FantasyPros, Jones is valued equal to an early third-round pick. With Allen and Jones getting another off-season to work together, if Jones can establish himself amongst the Buffalo receiving core, he could easily return a profit for that investment.
Deep Dive: Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
Some of you may be asking “Who on Earth is Jakobi Meyers?” Well, let me explain. Meyers is an undrafted free agent out of North Carolina State who is starting to make noise in Patriots camp. Meyers, 6-2, 200-pounds, was a dominant force for the Wolfpack, posting an obscene 47.8-percent college dominator rating. For those that don’t know, that means that Meyers had nearly half of the Wolfpack’s receiving yards and touchdowns. Those are unreal numbers for a team in a Power five conference (ACC).
While Meyers wasn’t drafted in the NFL Draft, he was signed soon thereafter by the Patriots, who outside of Julian Edelman, have a wide-open competition for snaps. Even though the Patriots drafted N’Keal Harry in the first round, Meyers has been “consistently outplaying” Harry throughout camp, “consistently making plays in competitive situations.”
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When beat reporters notice a player, it is usually just noise. However, when Bill Belichick himself comes out and praises a player’s camp, that is a time to listen. In a press conference, when asked about Meyers, Belichick stated: “He’s a smart kid…there are a lot of subtleties and nuances that all receivers need to pick up, certainly in our offense, and he’s doing that.” With Edelman firmly established as the number one option, Meyers has the ability to force himself into the starting lineup and should be picked up as a speculative add in all leagues.
Conclusion
Remember, not every person’s trash is another person’s treasures. Using this method, you can get burned. However, the beauty of dumpster diving is that when you lose, you lose very little. Maybe a late-round pick here, or a waiver spot there. But when the rewards hit, and every year there are hits (Tyler Boyd and Phillip Lindsay come to mind), their owners reap fantastic rewards for those willing to try.
