LionsPlayer Value

Deciphering The Lions Backfield: Which Running Back To Target For Fantasy Football In 2023

July 11, 2023

Analyzing The Lions Backfield: Which Running Back To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football

The Lions had one of the better rushing offenses in the league last season. They ranked 11th in the NFL with nearly 130 yards per game and 23 total rushing touchdowns. In fantasy football, they had two running backs crack the top-20 in fantasy points per game. Apparently that wasn’t enough, though, as they used the 2023 offseason to upgrade both running back roles. They drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of the NFL Draft to replace D’Andre Swift and added David Montgomery in free agency to improve upon the Jamaal Williams role.

But that opens up some questions for us who play fantasy football. How will this Lions backfield play out? Is it as simple as Gibbs takes on the Swift role and Montgomery is the new Williams? Perhaps. But there are many who believe Gibbs will be a bellcow, leaving behind the scraps for Montgomery. The answer likely lies somewhere in between.

Our mission today is to dive into this Lions backfield to determine how the touches will be distributed and which running back we want for 2023 fantasy football.

The Lions Offense

Both Montgomery and Gibbs should be thrilled to be running behind this Lions offensive line. After all, they produced the league’s highest touchdown scorer last season. Montgomery is coming from a Bears o-line that ranked below league average in yards generated before contact. The Lions, on the other hand, ranked third. That was with a line that was never all healthy at once. The production in all areas benefits when you have a great front five. That was no different in Detroit as they were one of three teams (Bills & Eagles) to finish the year top-12 in both rushing yards and passing yards in 2022 and finished top-5 in total points scored (PlayerProfiler).

The David Montgomery Role

The Lions signed Montgomery to a three-year deal worth $18 million this offseason. He left the Bears after four seasons where he ran for more than 3,600 yards and 30 total touchdowns. He now joins one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and certainly the most talented he’s ever been a part of. He ran behind a poorly constructed offensive line in Chicago so he will surely appreciate the upgrade in Detroit.

It feels cliché to say at this point, but Montgomery projects to slide right into the role that Jamaal Williams held on his way to 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. Yet, Montgomery is a better version of Williams across the board. He’s bigger, evades more tackles, is far more efficient as a runner, and adds more value in the passing game. Montgomery was an RB1 in fantasy football in two of his last three seasons and he has scored as an RB2 or better 18 times over the last two. So, we know he can produce.

The Jahmyr Gibbs role

But what can we expect from the rookie? First off, it is important that we remind ourselves that he is a rookie. He has yet to step on an NFL field and has yet to produce a single NFL stat so we must be careful when projecting him into a significant role right out the gate. However, it’s safe to say he will take the “lion’s share” of the receiving work. This is a guy who caught 103 passes over three college seasons. In fact, we could consider him as one of, if not the, best receiving backs to enter the NFL since Christian McCaffrey. He even led the entire Alabama team in receptions last year.

While Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in rushing as well, he was not nearly as prolific on the ground in college as he was as a pass catcher. He never cracked 1,000 yards and often split carries. That’s about what we can expect at the NFL level as well, especially early in his rookie season.

Projections

Gibbs projects for around 50 receptions in his rookie season, but will average somewhere around 7-10 carries per game. That’s more than plenty to be an RB2 in fantasy football. As for Montgomery, he is likely to dominate the early down work and get the red zone touches. In an offense that was in the top-half of the league in rushing yards last season and produced the league’s highest touchdown scorer, that’s a pretty awesome role. He may not score 17 touchdowns, but Montgomery can realistically get to 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns with 30 receptions in this offense.

And yes, I said 30 receptions. The Lions targeted running backs 115 times last season. Not all of that is going to go to the rookie. Montgomery has proven to be underrated in the passing game and has averaged three receptions per game over the last three seasons. When adding that to his rushing numbers, we should easily get a solid top-24 running back season from Montgomery.

I’m Drafting…

The reality is, both of these running backs are going to be startable in fantasy football. But if we’re choosing just one, there is a clear winner. While their projected fantasy points are similar, their ADPs are four rounds apart. Montgomery is available in the eighth round on Underdog. When selecting him, we’re doing it over guys like Quentin Johnston, George Pickens, Gabe Davis, and Isiah Pacheco. For Gibbs, on the other hand, his Underdog ADP currently resides in the fourth round as the RB14. We’re having to decide on him versus Najee Harris, Christian Watson, Travis Etienne, Joe Burrow, and Jerry Jeudy. That’s a massive difference. As someone who believes Montgomery will be the higher scoring running back in this Lions backfield—or at least close to it—it’s a no-brainer that Montgomery is the running back I want in 2023.