Darrell Henderson: A 2019 Fantasy Football Cheat Code

Darrell Henderson: Buy Before It’s Too Late

Mandatory Mini-Camps are underway, as are the countless articles on every rookie and undrafted player looking great, or a veteran coming in which added muscle and/or lost weight. “I’m in the best shape of my life” will be heard over and over.  We as a fantasy community need to sift through the “coach speak” to determine which reports are legit and which are pure hype.

Insert Darrell Henderson

This brings me to rookie RB Darrell Henderson who was selected by the Los Angeles Rams in the third round.  General Manager Les Snead and company jumped up 24 spots to select the runner out of Memphis.  One of the first things I take note when evaluating post-draft landing spots is how much draft capital was used and how many spots did the team move to go get a player   The Rams sent two third round picks to go up to select Henderson, but why?

Memphis RB Darrell Henderson:

•Totaled 2,204 yards from scrimmage and 25 total touchdowns in 2018 (13 games).

•Averaged 8.9 YPC in both 2017 & 2018

•Exits as school’s second leading rusher all time

•Voted unanimous first-team All American in 2018#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/mL8c2MkVsV

— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) April 11, 2019

How Bad Is Todd Gurley’s Knee?

The Rams currently have MVP candidate RB Todd Gurley, who is just one year into a four-year, $60 million dollar deal with $45M in guarantees.  Since the Super Bowl run, where he was mysteriously losing snaps to CJ Anderson, Gurley’s stock has plummeted. Ever since, there have been numerous conflicting reports about his injured knee.  Just last week, NFL media’s Ian Rappoport said “the days of Todd Gurley just being the straight-up every down bell cow are probably over.”  He added “[It’s] maybe why the Rams drafted a running back (Henderson) in the third round, someone they like a lot.”

“The days of Todd Gurley just being the straight-up every down bell cow are probably over…[It’s] maybe why the Rams drafted a running back (Henderson) in the third round, someone they like a lot.” -@Rapsheet

Running backs tend to hit the age of 30 and slowly fade into the sunset.  Gurley is only 24 but he already has endured a lot of wear-and-tear on his body. The word “arthritis” for football players, or anyone for that matter, is bad news.  There have been a lot of rumors this offseason about Gurley’s surgically repaired knee experiencing arthritis.  If true, the clock is ticking on Gurley’s time as an elite runner.  According to Dr. Jesse Morse of Florida Orthopedic Specialists believes Gurley is going to start trending downward and fast.  “Without personally examining him, my answers will be very generalized, but unfortunately I believe Gurley has peaked and will not be able to repeat his record-breaking effectiveness,” said Morse.  “He could possibly have one to two more years of elite top-five running back talent, but he will likely lose a step.”  Morse also states that in order to prolong his career and get some value back from that contract, the Rams will have to reduce Gurley’s workload to keep him effective.   Only Snead, coach Sean McVay and the medical staff truly know the details of the injury, but at the Combine both Snead and McVay stated Gurley has a bunch of wear and tear because of his high volume of touches.

Let’s face it, the NFL doesn’t deploy many bell-cow backs anymore they all break down with mileage like anything in life.  The Rams may have looked at the recent success of the Alvin Kamara – Mark Ingram duo in their decision to bring in Henderson.  According to Fantasy Football Calculator ADP data, since the draft, Darrell Henderson has risen from a 10th round pick to a seventh rounder in redraft 12-team PPR leagues. I expect by draft time Henderson will be creeping into round five or six.   In dynasty formats, Henderson was initially being drafted around the 10th to 14th overall pick in rookie formats. Now weeks later he has crept into the middle of the first round. Gurley is likely to sit out all of preseason, giving us more opportunity to see Henderson on an NFL field,, thus allowing his stock to rise even further.

“The Memphis guy does give you a Kamara element.  I won’t get off of that, won’t say it, we’ll play against him and you’ll feel it.” -Les Snead, Rams GM

Drafting Henderson in the middle rounds is a must, especially if you draft Gurley in round 2. Both backs can be viable options much like the aforementioned Kamara and Ingram over the last two seasons.  Once the middle rounds hit, I like to draft players with immense upside, Henderson fits that bill to a tee.  The Rams are going to be winning a lot of games, and more importantly, scoring a lot of points. Come fantasy playoff time, Gurley could be resting even more while they set their sights on an actual Super Bowl, not ours in Week 16, leaving Henderson to take on a full load at the most crucial point of the fantasy season. Even if Henderson doesn’t come out of the gate strong, he’s going to get a lot of snaps down the stretch and is worth holding onto.

Why Darrell Henderson?

Henderson is my number two overall rookie. If I’m holding an early rookie pick and not able to trade down a few spots, I’m still taking him over Miles Sanders whom I don’t trust Eagles brass to employ as a three down back, and David Montgomery who will still lose snaps to Tarik Cohen on passing downs. The Rams considered Henderson at pick 63 but weren’t able to find a trade partner.  If Henderson sees the field and similar touches to what Kamara received as a rookie, he is looking at 120 carries and 81 receptions as the number two back on his own team.  While Gurley is capable of catching pass better than Ingram, I do anticipate Gurley seeing the field less than last year and Henderson will be the prime benefit.

Here is Memphis RB Darrell Henderson

➕71st percentile Speed Score
➕Elite Homerun Hitter
➕8.9 YPC in BOTH 2017 & 2018 👀
➕33.9% Dominator
➕3 seasons of 19+ receptions
➕7.4% Target Share
➕80th percentile BMI

➖5-8
➖Pass Protection ❓
➖Upright Runner#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/03JRtS0bgl

— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) March 31, 2019

Henderson adds another dynamic weapon to the Rams offense. He was electric in college, averaging 8.9 yards-per-carry in two straight seasons and 15.5 yards per reception. The Rams ran an outside zone play 217 times last year which was 52 times more than anyone else according to Pro Football Focus.  Over the last two seasons on outside zone runs; Henderson rushed 53 times for 569 yards, which led the nation, at 8.85 YPC, 23 first downs and 16 broken tackles.  Henderson is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. The way defenses will have to line up against the Rams just got trickier.

Follow @GregKowalczykFF