Buffalo Backfield: James Cook or Damien Harris?
There is no position in fantasy football that relies as heavily on competition/opportunity than running back. With most of the marquee free agents having found homes at this point in the off-season, we can begin to identify the potential impacts that these new landing spots will have on the opportunities that will be available for various RBs (and, by extension, their likely fantasy worth).
One free agent move that has led to a wide array of reactions is Damien Harris’ arrival to the Buffalo Bills. The fantasy community seems split as to whether this move is good or bad for Damien Harris and his new backfield counterpart, James Cook. Given the disparity in views, I wanted to dive into the Bills offense, each player’s profiles, and try to discern what the possible outcome could be.
Bills 2022 RB Usage
The Bills’ usage of RBs has been a point of frustration of fantasy managers in recent years. Put simply, the Bills do not utilize their RBs as much as other NFL offenses have. Here is a summary of some key Bills RB usage metrics in 2022 under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (which include the usage of Devin Singletary, Cook, Zack Moss, Nyheim Hines, and Duke Johnson combined):
The Bills were in the top half of the league in pass percentage. While they weren’t drastically skewed towards pass vs run relative to the rest of the league, the RB usage was further hurt by Josh Allen’s 124 rush attempts for 762 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is substantial ‘leakage’ of the ground game away from RBs and to the QB position.
What’s worse is that the RB rushes and receptions were spread amongst multiple backs. Here is a breakdown of RB utilization for the Bills last year:
As can be seen, there were no ‘clear roles’ between RBs. Singletary and Cook were the primary backs, but both RBs mixed into both the run and pass game. Furthermore, the split between the two became much less pronounced in the second half of the year, as Cook began to earn more work. In short, the small RB pie of the Bills was split into pieces that wouldn’t satisfy even a mild sweet tooth. Both Singletary and Cook ended the year as fringe flex options.
Thus, in order for an RB to ascend to greater relevance for fantasy football in 2023, the hope would be that either 1) one RB takes over a greater share of the backfield, or 2) the Bills increase their overall usage of RBs.
The current RBs of relevance for the 2023 season are Damien Harris, James Cook, and Nyheim Hines. Let’s take a look at what the 2023 season may hold for these three RBs.
2023 Rushing Outlook
Damien Harris profiles as the most prototypical between-the-tackles runner on the depth chart. He’s shown he can carry a heavy load on the ground too. Harris has had varying degrees of success on the ground the past three years for the Patriots:
Harris dealt with injury in 2022, but his ability to shoulder the bulk of a backfield rushing load was on full display in 2021 when he topped 200 carries and added 15 TDs. He is a better between-the-tackles runner than what Buffalo has had in recent years. Cook can also run effectively between the tackles, but his smaller build (190 pounds) may not allow him to safely shoulder as many carries. Thus, it seems likely that the Bills brought Harris in to take on a significant amount of the work on the ground.
More importantly, Harris projects to be the primary goal line back for the Bills; however, the Bills goal line RB has had to compete with Josh Allen for carries in recent years, and that figures to be true for Harris as well. In 2022, Josh Allen had 7 rushing TDs, while Singletary and Cook combined for 7 between them.
Still, there’s reason to be optimistic that Harris could earn more of a role around the end zone than his predecessors given his historical affinity for scoring touchdowns. Further, the Bills have noted that they’d like to reduce the amount of punishment that Josh Allen is receiving by running the ball, and it’s possible that part of that plan is to give more of the goal line punishment to Harris instead. If Harris can take 3 or 4 of the 7 or 8 rushing touchdowns that Allen has gotten annually, he could potentially reach double digit touchdowns.
Of course, James Cook could also pose a threat to that goal line work. Cook was not much of a factor around the goal line early in the year, and only began to split some of those duties with Singletary towards the end of the season. Whether at the goal line or not, Cook at least projects to cut into the run game more in 2023 than he did over the course of 2022. Over the last 8 games of 2022, he averaged 7.6 carries per game, though his weekly carries would oscillate significantly (e.g., 2 carries one week, 14 the next, then 4, then 11, etc.). That pace comes out to 130 carries in a 17-game season.
Cook was also highly efficient with the carries he received, averaging 5.7 yards per tote on the year. If Cook is able to stay efficient with his opportunities on the ground (e.g., assume 5 yards per carry), 130 carries (i.e., his pace from the back half of last year) would come out to 650 rushing yards. Whether Cook can earn (and stay healthy with) more than 130 carries, or earn meaningful goal line, is a big question for 2023.
Based on the Bills’ usage last year, and projecting for slightly more RB rushes than in 2022, the following could be a plausible projection for Bills’ RB rushing usage:
2023 Receiving Outlook
Harris has not historically provided fantasy managers much production in the receiving game, though he hasn’t been altogether non-existent. After factoring in the amount of time he missed last year, Harris actually had the best receiving pace of his career. The following is a summary of Harris’ receiving numbers the past three years for the Patriots:
Harris’ minimal receiving work doesn’t figure to change with the Bills, who haven’t historically given many targets to RBs. Further, Cook profiles as more of a pass catching specialist, and he figures to take a bigger step forward in that department from last year.
As such, Cook figures to be the primary receiving back, assuming he can hold off Nyheim Hines now that Hines has a full offseason to learn the playbook. But even if we assume Cook gets most of the passing game work, how lucrative can that role be? Last year, all Bills RBs combined for 540 yards on 71 receptions. For context, Leonard Fournette had 73 catches for 523 yards himself last year. If those overall Bills volume numbers hold, even if we assume James Cook gets 100% of the RB receiving work from last year, he would still need to cut out a valuable role in the running game to be a regular fantasy contributor. Otherwise, Cook will need the Bills to expand the use its RBs in the passing game.
Based on the Bills’ usage last year, projecting for slightly more targets going to the RBs, the following could be a plausible projection for Bills’ RB receiving usage:
Summary
- Harris will likely be an inconsistent RB2/RB3 in fantasy for 2023. He may provide some decent weeks due to touchdowns and an occasional big game on the ground, but these boom games will be mixed in with some fantasy duds (think: 10 carries for 40 yards and no touchdown). He’ll likely have relevance, but it’ll be best not to have to rely on Harris week-in and week-out. A ceiling scenario for Harris could come via more touchdowns, a greater rush share, or a bigger-than-expected role in the passing game. Even so, it’s difficult to see a ceiling better than a mid-RB2 finish.
- The projection above assumes Cook can take over a majority of the receiving work (and that the Bills also increase their overall usage of RBs in the passing game), while maintaining the same rushing pace he earned in the back half of last year. An even more bull case for Cook is probably in the ballpark of 150 carries for 750 yards, and 50 catches for 400 yards. Even if Cook achieved that bull case, he would still be only a high end RB2. To push into the RB1 conversation, Cook would need to take on highly unexpected workloads in the rushing or receiving game, or else outperform expectation in the touchdown department. While Cook projects to at least be usable as a low end RB2, fantasy managers should beware that a bear case for Cook could lead to him being volatile, or worse, unusable in fantasy. Such a bear case could be realized in the event Harris takes over more of the backfield than expected.
- In short, the most likely outcome for the Bills backfield appears to be more frustration for fantasy managers. Harris and Cook may fit more neatly into defined roles in the offense due to their unique skill sets. However, unless the Bills significantly expand the overall usage of their RBs in the offense (which is difficult to project), the RB production pie might not be large enough for both RBs to produce on a weekly basis.
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