Buy Damien Harris, Sell Zack Moss? — AFC East Buys & Sells
I’ve always been interested in the stock market. The constant absorption of news and information by our society is reflected better in few places. As we always know (or have the ability to know) what is going on in the world for a particular business, it means that stocks are always in flux. The slightest scare of a negative story can see the market flock with sellers, and a major contract is almost begging for those buying to come swarming. However, one thing that those who seriously invest in the market always say is “buy low, sell high.”
While it seems like a simple statement, there’s more to it. We need to be able to dive into our current information on the stock and determine what news is real, and what is just a bunch of malarkey. This strategy of diving into stocks to unearth some proper value can be easily translated into Dynasty football. Every offseason is full of team changes, free agency, and a fresh bunch of players coming through the draft. Value always seems to slip through the cracks. It is up to YOU to take advantage of both the news and the knowledge gap you as a reader may have against another person in your league. If you can, it may be enough to see the value of your team skyrocket before a single snap is played.
To that end, let’s dive deep. Team by Team. Division by Division. In this series, we’ll take a look at every team and find at least one Buy or Sell to focus on as the dust has finally settled in free agency, and we can see our ever-evolving dynasty rosters taking more shape.
BUY: Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Harris, as a third-round pick out of Alabama, stumbled out of the gate of his professional career. Harris only appeared in two games as a rookie. Then, a poorly-timed finger injury meant Harris missed the first couple weeks of his second season. However, once those concerns were behind Harris, he let New England in on a secret that the rest of the world already knew. He was better than Sony Michel.
Buy Damien Harris | See Where He Lands In Our Dynasty Rankings!
Michel, who has had a multitude of injury concerns, had his misfortune strike again just as Harris was back to full strength. An injury left Harris a prime opportunity to take charge of the backfield, and Harris took that chance and ran with it (pun fully intended). Harris, starting 10 games, managed almost 70 yards per game and a whopping 5.0 yards per carry, and three games over 100 yards rushing in that span. More importantly, Harris continued to lead the NE backfield even after Michel returned, averaging about 14 attempts per game.
While NE brought back two major negative factors for Harris with White and Newton returning, Harris is likely to lead the line on a team looking to run the ball even more this season. Add to that to an offensive line that finished 4th per PFF grading, and you have a recipe for success, and I’m seeing a clear opportunity for growth. At that price, I’d be happy investing a mid-2nd round pick all day into a runner that has a good grip on an improved offense in 2021.
SELL: Zack Moss AND Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
In the deepest realms of a fantasy football nightmare is a backfield where two RBs cannibalize each other to the point where neither has value. Both Singletary and Moss ran relatively well last year as the Bills went from a playoff-hopeful team to AFC runner-ups. In the season, Singletary held a stat line of 156 carries for 687 yards (4.4 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, while also turning 50 targets into 38 receptions for 269 scoreless yards. Moss, meanwhile, took 112 carries for 481 yards (4.3YPC) and 4 touchdowns, along with 14 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown. This led to fantasy finishes of 31 and 46 respectively.
However, looking deeper into these numbers, we find some worrying statistics. Most notably, Buffalo’s two main RBs combined for just 6 rushing touchdowns. This is because Josh Allen is the team’s clear goal-line back, rushing for 8 touchdowns. That’s not likely to change, as Allen put up an MVP caliber season in 2020. Additionally, as Moss moves into his second season in the league, it’s unlikely his carry count gets reduced as he gets a better grip of the offense and the speed of the NFL.
Therefore, it’s likely we see an almost even share in the carries IF the Bills decide not to address the position in the draft (which is heavily rumored that the Bills are looking at). Additionally, either RB will be forced to pick up Allen’s TD scraps. That’s a situation you never want an RB to be in. And if the Bills do address the position, it’s likely all hope is lost. I prefer Singletary to Moss because of his receiving aptitude. However, I’d be very comfortable moving either RB if I was offered an early second for Singletary and a mid to late second for Moss.
BUY: Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins
I’ll be honest here, I love Myles Gaskin. I loved the impressive tape of Gaskin while at Washington. However, I never anticipated that he would show so early that he was the Alpha-dog for the Phins.
After a non-existent rookie season, Gaskin flourished once finally given the chance. In Gaskin’s ten games, he accumulated 584 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while also heavily contributing through the air, turning 47 targets into 41 receptions, 388 yards, and two touchdowns. This led to Gaskin finishing as the RB 28 on the season. However, Gaskin’s consistency may have been his most significant contribution. Gaskin failed to hit double-digits just once during his 10 games as the lead back. His consistency led to a whopping 16.4 FPPG during that span. For reference, was Gaskin to complete a 16 game season at that pace, he would have finished as the RB 4 with 262.4 Fantasy points.
However, he’s being forgotten about after an offseason where the Dolphins improved both their receiving corps and offensive line. Both of these alleviate pressure from Gaskin. And if he gets the opportunity to be the lead back, he has RB 1/2 upside. I’d be comfortable giving any second-round rookie pick to acquire Gaskin’s services on my rosters.
SELL/HOLD: Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets
Let me start by saying, I love Jamison Crowder as a player. When healthy, he brings stability to any PPR league lineup. However, it’s more about what is AROUND Crowder that has changed this situation.
First and foremost, the Jets invested significant draft and free agency capital in their receivers over the past two years. The team brought in Denzel Mims and Corey Davis over those seasons. While neither option is terrifying for Crowder, who is going to be 28 by September, both could cannibalize what Crowder has had to his lonesome in New York.
Last season, there was no Jets piece you wanted. Crowder, playing just 12 games, led the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Outside of Crowder, no receiver had more than sixty targets. Also, no one came close to Crowder’s six touchdowns. However, even with the passing game completely to himself, Crowder could only finish as the WR 39.
While Crowder missed four games and made the WR 3/4 line, he faces significantly more competition this year. Mims showed flashes of promise in his rookie year and has a full offseason to adjust to the NFL game. Additionally, the signing of Corey Davis means that Crowder may not be the #1 option. This is all while the Jets are also debating about drafting a QB with the second overall pick. While a rookie may bring a breath of fresh air, I’m not confident about a 28-year-old slot receiver welcoming a rookie to the NFL. I’d be happy getting any mid-second or above for Crowder.
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