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Who said Monday’s cant be fun? What better way to spend it than making the filthiest DFS lineup and watching America’s Team visit the greatest quarterback of all time for the final divisional playoff spot? I can’t think of anything. The Cowboys come in following a brutal loss to the Commanders, a game which Dak and company looked like a shell of themselves. The Buccaneers come in well rested after only playing their starters for the first half in a game against the Falcons, having the division and #4 seed already locked up. These teams met all the way back in Week 1, but how much can you take away from that now that we are four months removed from that? Which Dak Prescott shows up? All we can follow are trends and statistics, and below are the stats that are going to lead you to FanDuel/DraftKings glory.
Showdown Captain: Tom Brady
He is him. Do you want to win a DFS championship? Why not ride the coattails of the quarterback with the most championships of all-time? The volume will be there, and he just got his starting center back giving him a little more time to pick apart this Cowboys defense.
- Brady is 7-0 vs the Cowboys in his career.
- He has thrown 2+ TD in each of his last four home games.
- He has thrown at least 40 attempts in his last six games (excluding Week 18 where he only played the 1st) The last three QB’s with 40+ attempts vs the Cowboys are averaging 327 yards and 2.3 TD’s.
Flex Stack: Mike Evans or Chris Godwin
It would be difficult to afford Brady, Evans and Godwin and still find two more player to fill out your lineup. So you will likely have to choose between these two. Here is the argument for both:
Mike Evans
- Evans was shadowed by Trevon Diggs on 37% of his snaps in Week 1, hauling in three catches on seven targets for 33 yards and a touchdown. Diggs is likely to cover Evans on the perimeter, but he can be beat and typically it is long, allowing 14.3 yards per reception (#73). Evans is 3rd in the NFL with 31 deep targets.
- Last year in two playoff games Evans had 17 catches on 26 targets for 236 yards and two touchdowns.
Chris Godwin
- After Diggs, the CB position is a question mark for the Cowboys. DaRon Bland has been covering slot receivers, where Godwin runs the 4th most snaps in the NFL. Bland has allowed five touchdowns and 109 passer rating when quarterbacks throw to his designated receiver.
- Godwin had racked up three catches for 35 yards before exiting in the 2nd quarter of Week 1.
- Godwin has seen 7+ targets in 13/14 full games played this season. Bland is 70th in fantasy points allowed per target among CB this season.
There may not be a wrong call here, but I would lean Godwin for the floor, Evans for the ceiling.
Value Play: Russell Gage
This may be favorite play from this weekend’s slate. Gage has been heavily involved in the Buccaneers offense of late, especially in the red zone. Also, the Cowboys CB room is rather thin on the backside, so Gage should see some good opportunity.
- 54%+ snap share in each of the last four games, 6+ targets in three of those.
- 24% red zone target share (highest on team) and has four touchdowns in his last five games.
Flex: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is one of the premier quarterbacks in the league, but occasionally he doesn’t show it. His performance last week was difficult to watch, but it shouldn’t scare you away from a below average Buccaneers secondary.
- QB’s have thrown 30+ attempts in each of the last four games versus the Bucs, and they have multiple TD’s in three of those four (only quarterback to not do it was Trace McSorley). They allowed three of those four to finish with a passer rating over 104.
- Dak has 30+ attempts in each of his last seven games.
- He also has multiple touchdowns and more than 250 yards in eight of his last 10 games.
Flex Stack: CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee has grown into one of the games best receivers, setting career highs this year in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He is in a position to have a nice game here vs the Bucs, as well.
- WR1 on the opposition has been torching the Bucs over their last three games (excluding the Cardinals.)
- Drake London – six catches, eight targets, 120 yards
- DJ Moore – six catches, 10 targets, 117 yards, TD
- Ja’Marr Chase – seven catches, 13 targets, 60 yards, TD
- Lamb’s average over his last four games: 9.75 targets, 8.25 receptions, 99.5 yards, 22.73 fantasy points per game (He also has three touchdowns in that span.)
- Lamb runs the 6th most routes out of the slot, where the Bucs have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards in the NFL this season.
Value Play: Dalton Schultz
He is very cheap for his role in this offense. He is Dak’s 2nd favorite target and for his price should be in your lineup.
- The Buccaneers have allowed a TD to a tight end in 4/5 games (excluding AZ with McSorley.) Schultz owns a 24% red zone target share.
- Schultz in his last two games has seen 19 targets and has 11 receptions and 2 TD.
Longshot: T.Y. Hilton
Hilton filled a need for the Cowboys at the end of the year and has a chance to be a big value in DFS lineups. With a receiver like him, all it takes is one big play for his output to exceed his cost.
- Hilton has seen his snap share increase every week since joining the Cowboys.
- He has seen 50+ air yards in all three games and has 4+ targets in back-to-back.
Fade Play: Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White
- The Cowboys are 5th in the NFL in fantasy points per game to running backs and allow the 4th least catches.
- Cowboys allow the 11th least yards per carry to running backs (4.19) while Fournette and White are #68 and #65 in True Yards Per Carry, respectively.
- In only two games since Week 13 has one of them reached 80 total yards.
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