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Dynasty Gameplan: May 2022
It’s the end of May, or what I like to call the “fantasy football deadzone.” Free agency was over two months ago. The draft has come and gone. Our rookie drafts are mostly wrapped up, and training camp is still a couple months away. However, that doesn’t mean you should get complacent with your dynasty teams. In fact, it’s the perfect time to pull-off some moves. Your league-mates are board and player values are not yet dialed-in all the way like they will be in August. There are opportunities in the market right now. Let’s take advantage of some of them.
Buy For A Contender: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton is being drafted more than a round later than teammate Jerry Jeudy according to DLF’s latest dynasty ADP data. This is despite Jeudy being mostly unproven in the NFL while Sutton has shown us he can perform at a high level and is more of your prototypical alpha wide receiver. With Drew Lock at quarterback in 2019, Sutton managed 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions (124 targets). After missing nearly the entire 2020 season with a torn ACL, Sutton came back with a solid 2021 campaign. He had three 20+ point outings in the first six weeks. From there, he struggled to produce consistently while being hindered by Denver’s ever-worsening game of quarterback musical chairs.
THE ULTIMATE 2022 DYNASTY ROOKIE DRAFT GUIDE
Still, the peripheral numbers are encouraging especially with the upgrade to Russell Wilson under center. Sutton finished the season eighth in air yards (1,534), fifth in unrealized air yards, second in average target distance (15.7), and sixth in deep targets (29) (PlayerProfiler.com). With Wilson—one of the league’s best deep ball passers—tossing him the rock, Sutton could be one of the most productive receivers in the league in 2022. We know he’ll be on the field a ton—he was top-15 in snap share in 2021 while running a route in 92-percent of Denver’s drop-backs. At 26 years old, Sutton is in the prime of his career for the next 2-3 years. Buy him in dynasty now before he shoots up in ADP when we start seeing the Wilson to Sutton connections in training camp.
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Buy For A Rebuild: D.K. Metcalf
The way I approach my rebuild teams is I start with the wide receiver position. I want to acquire as many young (younger than 27) wideouts as I can to establish a litany for f youth at the position. Then I work my way through the other positions before finally putting the topper on the cake with a couple stud running backs. That takes me to D.K. Metcalf.
Metcalf is going from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL to Drew Lock and/or Geno Smith. That’s scaring a lot of dynasty managers away from him and driving down his cost in trades. If you can afford to live without peak-level Metcalf in 2022, you should be making offers to acquire him. He’s a 24-year old athletic freak in the mold of a prototypical alpha wide receiver. And we know he’s good. Just two years ago, he went for 1,303 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 83 receptions and 129 targets. He was WR10 in fantasy points per game. Even 2021, while considered a down season, was solid considering he played five games with Geno Smith at quarterback and several others with a less than healthy Russell Wilson. Metcalf continued to be a force down the field with 30 deep targets, 1,605 air yards (sixth among WRs), and 940 unrealized air yards (first). He continued to be a red zone machine with 12 total touchdowns.
See where Metcalf lands in the dynasty rankings!
The quarterback upgrade will come in 2023 one way or another. He’s in a contract year so you know he’s going to be hungry to overcome the bad quarterback play and to earn a big payday either with the Seahawks or elsewhere. With Wilson gone, whoever is the starter in Seattle will be less likely to spread the ball around and more apt to lock-in on his 6-3, 228-pound stud. Then in 2023, he’ll still be in his early prime years and ready to be your team’s WR1 with a new quarterback.
Sell: Damien Harris
Damien Harris was a nice value in 2021. He out-played a lot of people’s expectations and helped you win some games. That’s great, but this is 2022. Much of Harris’ production last season came on the back of his 15 touchdowns. Only Jonathan Taylor had more. Yet, even at No.2 in rushing touchdowns, he was barely a mid-level RB2 in fantasy points per game (RB18). And it’s hard to imagine he finds the end zone at that rate again. So how in the world will he even replicate RB18 production? It’s nearly impossible. He doesn’t catch passes (averaged one reception per game) and doesn’t even get full workhorse treatment on the ground (just 13.5 carries per game).
Let’s not forget, the Patriots drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in 2021 and basically split carries between he and Harris during the season. Stevenson isn’t going away. The team also drafted two running backs—Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris—in the 2022 draft, not to mention James White is back healthy. The Patriots are not a team that typically resigns its first and second-down runners. Instead, they draft a new back (or two) every few years to replace the incumbent at the end of his rookie deal. We’ve seen this with guys like Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, and others. All signs point towards Harris being the next guy in this trend. And guess what? Harris’ rookie deal is up after the 2022 season. He’s gone. At that point, he’ll be multiple years past the age apex for running backs. There’s really no upside to holding Harris at this point. Sell him before your leaguemates realize this. The writing is on the wall.
Sell: Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill is being overvalued in dynasty based on brand equity. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic talent, but his fantasy floor and ceiling are not what they once were. He has gone from the high-flying, Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs to the Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins. This is the same Tua Tagovailoa who threw 16 touchdowns in 13 games in 2021. It’s the same Tua that ranked 31st in air yards per attempt.
In Kansas City, the passing game went through two guys—Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In Miami, Hill will have to contend with a redundant asset in Jaylen Waddle. Stylistically, these are two similar players who are going to siphon targets away from each other. Neither guy is going to see the same target shares they were seeing before teaming up. At 28-years old, Hill is now passed the age apex for wide receivers. One year from now, he’s going to be a 29-year old coming off the worst season of his professional career. Get out while you can still get high-end value back in return.
Stash: Chris Evans
Chris Evans was underutilized at Michigan before coming out as a sixth round pick to the Bengals in 2021. He’s incredibly explosive and agile with enough size to handle any amount of work put on his plate. As a rookie, he flashed receiving prowess, handling 15 of his 17 targets for 151 yards and two scores in limited playing time. Joe Mixon has been far from the epitome of health over his career and if anything were to happen to him, just Samaje Perine stands between Evans and a significant role in one of the league’s top offenses. Evans is the perfect guy to get in trades as a “throw-in” and a great stash on your taxi squad.
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