Why Christian McCaffrey Is Too Risky of a Pick in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts
Risk vs Reward: Should you AVOID Christian McCaffrey in 2025 Fantasy Football?
Christian McCaffrey’s name still carries massive weight in fantasy football circles—and for good reason. When healthy, he’s been a league-winning machine. But heading into 2025, the landscape has changed dramatically, and it’s time to ask the hard question: Is McCaffrey worth a first-round pick anymore?
The Ceiling We’ve Seen Before
No one questions McCaffrey’s upside. When we last saw a fully healthy version of him:
* He was RB2 in fantasy points per game in 2022
* RB1 overall in 2023
* He totaled 152 receptions, over 3,900 total yards, and 34 touchdowns across those two seasons
That kind of production is elite-tier. If you’re drafting based on best-case scenario, McCaffrey still looks like a top-three option. But that’s not how smart fantasy managers build championship rosters.
A Lot Has Changed Since That Peak
In 2024, McCaffrey’s body finally started to betray him in a more permanent way:
* He played in just 4 games
* Missed the early part of the season due to Achilles tendinitis in both legs
* When he did play, he was a shell of himself—averaging only 12 fantasy points per game, the lowest of his career
* He lacked his usual efficiency, explosiveness, and burst
* Then he suffered a PCL injury in Week 13, ending his season early again.
Kyle Shanahan has since declared him “100% healthy”, but the question isn’t if McCaffrey can pass a physical—it’s whether he can hold up for 17 games at a fantasy-viable level.
First-Round Picks Are About Floor, Not Just Ceiling
We’ve seen the upside. That’s not in dispute. But fantasy football isn’t just about swinging for the fences—it’s about avoiding landmines early so you’re not playing from behind all season.
And McCaffrey? He’s the ultimate high-upside / low-floor player in early 2025 drafts.
You want to take risks in Round 8? Go nuts. That’s the time to swing for breakout stars.
But in Round 1? You’re setting the foundation of your team. One wrong move, and you’re cooked. You don’t win your league in the early rounds—but you can absolutely lose it.
A Long History of Red Flags
This isn’t just about one injury-plagued year. Let’s zoom out:
* McCaffrey is now 29 years old
* He has more than 1,800 career touches
* He’s played fewer than 8 games in three of the last five seasons
* Injuries are no longer random bad luck —they’re part of the profile
Even if he’s healthy Week 1, who’s to say the 49ers don’t manage his workload in-season to save him for a playoff push? Touchdowns and touches are the lifeblood of fantasy running backs—and any reduction in opportunity can make even the greats hard to trust.
You May Never See 2022–2023 McCaffrey Again
This is the harsh truth: there’s a very real chance that version of Christian McCaffrey is gone. You might be paying a first-round price for a name, not a performance. Yes, anyone can get hurt. But McCaffrey’s age, workload, and long injury history make him a uniquely risky bet.
And if you were the manager who took him 1.01 last year? You already know how that story ends.
Players I’d Rather Draft at Cost:
If I’m picking in the first few rounds and want a combination of stability and upside, give me:
Ashton Jeanty – Electric and rising in a less crowded backfield
Brian Thomas Jr – Breakout candidate with alpha traits
Nico Collins – Now C.J. Stroud’s clear WR1 in a loaded offense
Derrick Henry – Still durable, still productive, and likely to dominate touches in Baltimore
Final Word
Christian McCaffrey was a fantasy god. But in 2025, the risk far outweighs the reward—especially at his current first-round ADP. The floor is no longer stable, and the ceiling? It might be out of reach for good.
Let someone else take that gamble. You draft for floor early—and build upside later.
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | ROOKIES
Draft season starts TODAY on Underdog. Sign up and draft now! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER to claim your Special Pick + First Time Deposit offer up to $1,000 in bonus cash!
