Dynasty Buys & Sells: AFC North Edition
Months of waiting, watching, disseminating, prognosticating and other long words came to a frothy head with the NFL Draft April 29 thru May 1. While there were no real surprises at the top of the draft, several teams selected interesting prospects that could yield reasonably good fantasy outcomes if the circumstances are right. With this in mind, and since the AFC North is my “home” conference, I’m taking a deep dive into the shallow end and identifying one “buy/sell” for each team. I may be spot on, I may be way off, but its May and we can only pontificate so much. In lieu of more long words, lets dig in.
Sell: Ravens Pass Offense
At the risk of being labeled a “hater”, I am still in wait and see mode in terms of the passing potential of Lamar Jackson. Lamar by no means had a bad year in 2020, and much of his struggles to find compatibility with his receivers certainly could be blamed on the lack of off season activities. However, three seasons into his career, we are still looking for Jackson to progress as a passer, and he simply hasn’t.
This begs the question, at what point is his MVP season of 2019 going to be considered an outlier? The Ravens drafted Devin Duvernay in 2020 and he responded with 20 receptions for 201 yards. Miles Boykin was drafted in 2019 and has a whopping 32 career receptions for 464 yards. Granted neither of these players were high capital guys, but Hollywood Brown was. The 2019 25th pick was expected to be the guy that could take the top off defenses and allow Jackson to take the next step.
While results haven’t been completely disastrous, the Ravens felt the need to add journeyman Sammy Watkins and yet another first round receiver in Rashod Bateman of Minnesota. Bateman has good size at 6-2, 210lbs and can run. But does he inspire confidence that Jackson can progress as a passer? At some point the coaching staff in Baltimore will have to stop blaming the receiving corp and look at their own failings in developing Jackson as a passer. Lamar remains a fantasy cheat code with his rushing upside, so drafting him as your QB1 is understandable. But also understand that when his speed and athleticism start to wane with age, if this staff doesn’t pull his potential as a passer out he will need to be dealt in dynasty formats before that happens.
Buy: Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
Entering his fifth year in the NFL, Mixon is a curious case. At 24 years old, he appears to have many years of prime production left. The problem with this plan isn’t Mixon, however so much as with the Bengals coaching staff. Zac Taylor’s play calling has been suspect more often than not, resulting in uneven production from the Bengals skill players. In 2018, Mixon appeared to be on the verge of a breakout. He logged 237 carries for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. In 2019 Mixon played all 16 games and logged more carries than the previous year but dipped in yardage and touchdowns.
In 2020, Mixon actually led the league in touches at the position before being injured six games in, despite averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. Why is any of this significant? It’s significant because Mixon’s breakout year of 2018 was under line coach Frank Pollack. Pollack left when Taylor took over in 2019, and coincidentally or not Joe’s production took a hit. In what may be the most important hire of Taylor’s brief career, Pollack was hired to be offensive line coach as well as run game coordinator for 2021. My expectation is a renewed commitment to the run game, which will take pressure off Joe Burrow, resulting in a career year for Mixon. Buy Joe Mixon low, enjoy the fruits of his labor and sell him high in 2022.
Sell: Steelers Run Game
Ok, yes I am aware the Steelers drafted the consensus top back in Alabama’s Najee Harris. Yes, I am aware that the Steelers want to run the ball more to take the pressure off clearly declining Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, I am aware the Steelers have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver. Why then would I be selling the Steeler run game? Thanks for asking! According to Pro Football Focus, while the Steelers line ranked at 17th overall, they were the 31st ranked unit in terms of run blocking. That is not good.
Further, their best run blocker, Alex Villanueva is a free agent. No team averaged fewer yards per run play than Pittsburgh at a paltry 3.6. That is not good either. Free agency your ask? Not good either. Pittsburgh added Bengals castoff (always a bad sign) BJ Finney and someone named Joel Haeg. Draft you ask? Despite the state of their line and loss of Villanueva and Maurkice Pouncey to retirement, they only saw fit to draft one offensive lineman. While third round pick Kendrick Green of Illinois may develop into a fine player, is it going to be in 2021? Is he going to be enough to transform a terrible run blocking line into a respectable unit? Likely not, and that alone caps the upside of Najee Harris. If you draft Harris this year, be prepared to be patient and hope the line somehow gels later in the season.
Buy: Browns Passing Game
So why would I “buy” a receiving corp that features two aging starters, one of which is oft injured? Why would I “buy” a corp that features almost no experienced depth, and no real threat at tight end? Perhaps I’m getting too cute, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are why. The one, two punch of Chubb and Hunt punished the AFC in 2020, taking pressure off Baker Mayfield and propelling the surprising Browns to the playoffs.
The NFL however is populated with very smart people who’s only job is to figure out how to make what worked for teams last year not work the next. In short, the Browns are going to need to rely more on Baker Mayfield’s arm in 2021. Stacked boxes should open up the passing game, but to whom? Key will be whether Odell Beckham Jr is fully healthy and committed and if Jarvis Landry has anything left in the tank.
If those two can perform at even close to the level they are capable of, it could lead to big things for rookie third rounder Anthony Schwartz. The fastest man in the draft, Schwartz ran an absolutely blistering 4.25 forty yard dash. He is a raw prospect, yet possesses decent size at 6’1 and 180 pounds. Schwartz should be good for some gadget plays as well as one to two shots down the field per game. Long term, if the Browns staff is able to refine Schwartz route running skills, that combination of size and Olympic speed could be nightmare material for AFC coordinators.
These are just a small, very early sampling of potential players to add or drop. As always, pay attention to camp battles, injuries, and preseason games to identify which players are taking advantage and which aren’t.
