Breakout Wide Receiver time: Week 4 Rookie Stock Update
After week 1, we got a little over excited and anointed some rookies as first ballot Hall-of-famers. Then in week 2, they were kicked to the curb for some shiny new toys in LA and we started getting excited about potential opportunities opening up on depth charts as injury swept the nation.
As we close out week 3, we have a real mixed bag of decreasing workloads, missed opportunities and longing for the days gone by (week 1…).
As noted in my introduction to this series, each week I’m going to do a stock take on the rookies, review how they’re progressing and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 4 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
Joe Burrow continues to impress whenever he steps on the field. After a crazy-high 61 pass attempts in week 2, Burrow was back to 44 in week 3 (6 of which were in overtime). That puts him top 10 in pass attempts (even without overtime) in a game that was never more than four points out of hand, this is a clear signal that this team is going to be pass-heavy. That’s good news for Burrow’s fantasy value, even if it isn’t good for the Mixon owners in the room.
Despite his slow fantasy start in week 1, he’s currently QB9 after QB8 and QB13 finishes in the last two weeks. Burrow is quickly establishing himself as a reliable low end QB1 that you can plug in with confidence.
Week 3 One-to-Watch: Justin Herbert
Thanks to one of the most 2020-style stories involving a doctor and a punctured lung, Justin Herbert led the Chargers again in week 2, although this time he had all week to think about it instead of 36 seconds before taking his first snap. In week 2, he leant heavily on his running backs to take more than half of the offensive plays but in week 3, Herbert was throwing a lot more (68-percent passing).
As his pass attempts lifted from 33 to 49, his completion percentage also lifted from 67 to 71-percent, in no small part because he used the Chargers not-so-secret sauce of throwing short to Austin Ekeler – turns out that works, who knew! He’s not a 2020 fantasy league winner but his QB15 finish on the week is pushing him to being a useable starter and definitely bodes well for the future. Now we just need Anthony Lynn to give him the job on a permanent basis when Tyrod is healthy.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
Snaps | 52 (69-percent) | Last Week: 48 (62-percent) |
Carries | 20 (65-percent) | Last Week: 10 (45-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 2 (67-percent) | Last week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last week: 0 (team total = 0) |
Targets | 6 (14-percent) | Last week: 8 (17-percent of team total) |
CEH is still the main back for a Chiefs team that just dominated on Monday night. He might not have made the endzone this week but with only a handful of carries and targets from the other backs, CEH is continuing to get a dominant floor of points regardless if he scores. That’s an Ezekiel Elliott level of comfort to have in your starting lineup. He did pile up a few of those carries towards the end of the game when the result was sealed, but something tells me that the Chiefs are going to be able to do that a fair bit this year if they keep playing like this. He only ceded redzone carries to Mahomes himself but he hasn’t yet established himself as a trustable goal-line back. If he can add that to his game in the coming weeks, that ceiling could break.
Jonathan Taylor | ||
Snaps | 24 (40-percent) | Last Week: 49 (67-percent) |
Carries | 13 (42-percent) | Last Week: 26 (65-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 5 (83-percent) | Last Week: 6 (86-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 3 (75-percent) | Last Week: 2 (100-percent of team total) |
Targets | 1 (4-percent) | Last Week: 2 (8-percent of team total) |
Some of us are old enough to remember week 1 when Taylor was catching passes and carving himself a surprising role. Well that appears to be gone for the time being and he’s the ground-and-pound back that was expected coming in. His snap share dropped somewhat in week 3 and his carries halved. That’s not good on the face of it but this was a complete blow out game where a number of starters sat for large portions, so I wouldn’t panic on that usage. He continues to get the majority of the redzone usage so that touchdown upside is there every single week, even if the receiving work isn’t.
Antonio Gibson | ||
Snaps | 26 (40-percent) | Last Week: 43 (65-percent of team total) |
Carries | 9 (41-percent) | Last Week: 13 (57-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 2 (67-percent) | Last Week: 2 (50-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
Targets | 3 (8-percent) | Last Week: 2 (6-percent) |
Gibson’s usage didn’t move a great deal in week 3 yet his second touchdown in as many weeks has got me bullish on his role continuing to grow. He’s not getting too many carries but is still the lead back for Washington, it’s their overall volume that’s driving down Gibson’s workload. Now that’s a problem that could continue on an anemic team, especially one that has to deal with a Ravens team with a point to prove. Gibson’s receiving role is still lower than expected for a player who used to be a wide receiver, so we’re still looking for this to develop for Gibson to really start returning decent fantasy production.
The good news is that Peyton Barber appears to be a non-factor in this offense now. The bad news is that they seem to like JD McKissic, particularly in the passing game. Not only does that limit the receiving role for Gibson, but it potentially keeps him off the field on a team that is going to be in negative gamescripts more often than not. Something tells me we’re about to see the explosion but I can’t see it being against the Ravens in week 4.
Joshua Kelley | ||
Snaps | 23 (29-percent) | Last Week: 43 (52-percent of team total) |
Carries | 8 (35-percent) | Last Week: 23 (52-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 4 (57-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last Week: 3 (75-percent of team total) |
Targets | 2 (4-percent) | Last Week: 3 (9-percent of team total) |
Joshua Kelley is the new Melvin Gordon, all hail the king. Hold your horses. I did caveat Kelley’s performance last week with a note on the unexpected QB change and no time for Herbert to prepare. However, we were all pretty certain that the Chargers would be able to dominate on the ground against the Panthers and that Kelley was going to have a great week. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, with only a 29-percent snap share and 35-percent of the carries, as the Chargers failed to assert any kind of control in this game and forced Herbert to use his arm.
Great news for Austin Ekeler, not so much for Kelley. Even worse news for Kelley, they’re playing the Buccaneers this week who are allowing 2.8 yards per carry. They have allowed the 4th most yards in the air to running backs so expect this to be another Austin Ekeler week. Don’t panic on Kelley, he’ll be back when the opponent and the gamescript fall right. He’ll get redzone opportunities again when the Chargers work out how to get back in to the redzone.
D’Andre Swift | ||
Snaps | 6 (9-percent) | Last Week: 20 (34-percent of team total) |
Carries | 0 (0-percent) | Last Week: 5 (24-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 0 (0-percent) | Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (0-percent) | Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total) |
Targets | 2 (6-percent) | Last Week: 5 (33-percent of team total) |
Oh no. Oh no no no. This is not good. Not good at all.
You’d be forgiven for thinking Swift left this game injured early on. Nope, sorry. This was an Adrian Peterson running game, and when he got tired later on it was Kerryon Johnson carrying the ball. Last week’s carries were in game-chasing mode and this week they hardly bothered even putting him on the field. His role in this game was very much a 3rd string backup on a few passing plays. This is a terrible situation for Swift who I have no choice but to relegate to my backup category until something significant happens. Is he being punished for that week 1 drop?! I kind of hope that’s the case because if not, then there’s potentially something more concerning going on here.
JK Dobbins | ||
Snaps | 24 (43-percent) | Last Week: 20 (31-percent of team total) |
Carries | 1 (24-percent) | Last Week: 9 (24-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
Targets | 4 (4-percent) | Last Week: 1 (4-percent) |
This backfield is going to continue to be a messy split and there will be games where Dobbins gets more carries. This game got out of hand for the Ravens and they were chasing early. When they did run the ball, it was Lamar himself trying to force things or Gus-the-bus later in the game. He did get a few targets in the passing game which is good for his upside, including a 6 yard catch in the 4th quarter that lost me one of my matchups, which is bad for my upside. I’m ok, I’m over it, I’m not bitter, it’s fine…
There will be better games for Dobbins but you’re never going to know when they’re coming and unless there’s an injury to Ingram, you won’t be able to trust him this year. Let’s look for him to develop his game and the trust of the coaches so he can get a good run at 2021.
James Robinson | ||
Snaps | 30 (45-percent) | Last Week: 38 (51-percent of team total) |
Carries | 11 (65-percent) | Last Week: 16 (59-percent of team total) |
Redzone carries | 2 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
Targets | 6 (14-percent) | Last Week: 4 (9-percent |
Confession time. I missed Robinson from this article in the last couple of weeks. If you read the introduction to this series, you’ll know that I only picked up players drafted in the first few rounds so the undrafted rookie missed the cut. But I did promise to add other rookies who established a role and Robinson has 100-percent established a role. He blew up on primetime for all to see and anyone who was still sleeping on him is now very much awake. Robinson is the number one back in Jacksonville and, pleasingly, is now starting to get some more work through the air.
When Chark comes back, some of these targets may start to dwindle but Robinson is still the guy on the ground and will get plenty of opportunity. Workhorse back, goal-line back, receiving back. He’s an automatic start and just imagine how much debate we could have saved about Leonard Fournette if we’d known this before the season started.
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Laviska Shenault
- Bryan Edwards
- Brandon Aiyuk
- KJ Hamler
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
Another 9 targets for Jeudy is fantastic to see. With a 73-percent snap share, Jeudy’s time on the field appears to be dictated by the personnel they run, coming off in two-receiver sets in favour of Hamler and Patrick. His 9 targets represent a 23-percent market share which was beaten only by Noah Fant. He’s still catching less than 60-percent of his targets though, which could be more about the quality of the targets than his ability, but this could be what holds him back. He’s clearly got the volume but who is going to throw him the ball? Driskel appears to be benched so we’ll have to see what the tendencies are of Brett Rypien in a plus matchup against the Jets on Thursday night.
Lamb’s snap count reduced in week 3, which was a bit of a surprise. The Cowboys spread the ball around more with Cedrick Wilson (who?) and Noah Brown (who???) getting plenty of playing time and some of the targets we would have hoped to see Lamb get. Dallas ran four-receiver sets on 20-percent of passing plays after doing this only once in all of 2019, and they tried to use Lamb on a couple of rushing plays. He still clearly has a role and his big game is coming.
Week 3 One-to-Watch: Michael Pittman Jr
Pittman didn’t get his 92-percent snap share again but then, given how this game blew out, not many Colts players did this week. The snaps were spread around and so were the targets, but Pittman’s four targets were only beaten by Hines. I was really intrigued to see how Pittman developed and highlighted him as one to watch for week 3. There wasn’t much to see this week and unfortunately an injury is now going to keep him out for a while.
We just keep getting artificially excited about Shenault don’t we?! First it was “with Fournette gone, you’re going to see him get work out of the backfield” then it was “with Chark injured, Shenault is in for a big game”. But despite things falling down around him, we’re not seeing a great deal from him yet. In week 3, his snap share ticked up slightly to 68-percent and his targets ticked up from 4 to 6, but he’s not a high-volume receiver. If Chark is out, it’s Conley and Cole that get those targets, in the backfield it’s James Robinson. Shenault will continue to be used and will have some games where you wished you’d started him, but he’s going to need Minshew to play better than he did against Miami for starters. For me, he’s a touchdown-dependent play in deep leagues.
In week 2, Edwards only got two targets as the entire offense funneled through Darren Waller. He managed three targets in week 3 with some big plays before exiting the game with an ankle injury. We’ll see how bad that injury is and if it keeps him out but it’s not been a great start for Edwards.
Let’s all give an officially warm ‘welcome to the NFL’ to Brandon Aiyuk. He showed why the 49ers drafted him by getting a 22-percent target share in addition to 3 rushes and a touchdown on 73-percent of snaps. He was clearly the number one in this offense and Shanahan schemed up ways to utilise his abilities. If everything stayed the same, there would be great optimism for Aiyuk’s potential fantasy contribution but the fact is that the 49ers don’t really have much choice. With Kittle, Samuel and Mostert back in the line up soon, he’s not going to be a trustable fantasy asset in the short term.
With a 92-percent snap share, KJ Hamler is a clear starter in this Denver offense now that Sutton is out. He did only get 13-percent of the target share which he turned into 3 catches and 30 yards. Not mind-blowing and, like Jeudy, will be impacted depending on who is going to be throwing him the ball on any given week. He’s up against the Jets on Thursday night so could well be worth a bench stash if he’s still available in your league. If he goes off in primetime, you’re going to miss your shot. He’s on my ‘One to Watch’ list for week 4.
Well, well, well. Last week I noted that Justin Jefferson had clearly dropped to be the third receiving option on his team. So what does he do, he explodes. He played 78-percent of snaps, including work on the outside instead of exclusively out of the slot. That’s huge for his potential usage and clearly shows a change in approach from Minnesota after a dreadful start to the season. The hope would be that they see Jefferson’s usage as a reason for their change in fortunes and continue to utilise him. He won’t catch 7 balls for 175 yards and a touchdown every week but that looked very much like a 2019 Stefon Diggs stat-line. P.S. now is your time to buy-low on Adam Thielen…
After starting to establish himself with increased playing time in week 2, Tee Higgins is another rookie receiver who exploded in week 3. He out-snapped all other wide receivers and out-targeted AJ Green. Tyler Boyd is the heavy-volume safety valve for Burrow but Higgins made a play for that alpha receiver role with five catches and two touchdowns from his nine targets. He only got 40 yards so not a big yardage game but he was the most targeted receiver in the red zone and caught all three of those targets for two touchdowns. You have to think that gives Burrow and the coaching staff confidence to look his way again, with the Burrow-Green connection clearly not working.
Injury Issues
- Zack Moss (RB)
- Cam Akers (RB)
- Henry Ruggs (WR)
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
It’s sad to see this list starting to grow. With Moss and Akers both missing week 3 through injuries, both are going to have some work to do to win back a reasonable role when they return. Akers in particularly finds himself behind a Darrel Henderson who is firing on all cylinders and Malcolm Brown who the Rams trust at the goal-line.
The Raiders are hoping Ruggs’ injury is short-term and can get him back stretching the field for Darren Waller, while Reagor and Mims look to be longer-term issues. Based on the way their teams are playing, I’m not sure either of them would be in a great rush to get back.
LONGER-TERM PLAY WITH EARLY QUESTION MARKS
- Chase Claypool (WR)
- Van Jefferson (WR)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
This list is getting shorter. In part, it’s getting shorter because of players like Jefferson and Higgins who are becoming weekly starters on their teams, but it’s also getting shorter as players like Lynn Bowden and Quintez Cephus are clearly becoming backups that are unlikely to get time without an injury.
At 76-percent of offensive snaps, Claypool was the most used wide receiver on the Steelers in week 3. This was a result of an early injury to Diontae Johnson so he hasn’t beaten out the competition to get here just yet. That said, with Washington not exactly destroying the competition he does have an opportunity to move up the depth chart. Unfortunately for Claypool, he only caught one of his four targets so may have jeopardised his opportunity. We’ll keep an eye on that Johnson injury but if he’s back, Claypool could drop back down to the fourth option.
What happened to Van Jefferson? He went from being a trusted target through the first two weeks to only playing 8 snaps and getting one target. That target came early in the second quarter when the ball was ripped out of his hands for a turnover. That was the last time the ball came his way. It may have been this that led to his lack of production but with the Rams running heavy 11 personnel, Jefferson only made it on the field for those two-receiver sets. When they use three receivers, Reynolds is clearly ahead of him on the depth chart.
With John Brown getting injured, Gabriel Davis saw much more of the game than in the first two weeks. He caught all four of his targets for 81 yards and looked good. He’s definitely not hurt his stock here and if Brown or Diggs miss any time this season, Davis is next man up for an offence that is firing right now.
Potential Late Season Plays
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
As Herbert is currently the starter in LA, I may need to rename this segment ‘Tua watch’.
Anything? Did you see him? I saw him sat next to a happy old guy with a beard (not Santa) on Thursday night, does that count?
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
- Quintez Cephus (WR)
Some of these guys are starting to see some playing time but it’s still minor and still nothing special. Devin Duvernay announced himself to the world with a kick-off return touchdown on Monday night but he still isn’t a useable option at this stage. Darrynton Evans made his debut and Anthony McFarland got some work but there’s not much going at this stage for most of these guys.
Now that Kenny Golladay is back for the Lions, Quintez Cephus is dropping back down to the bench. He played a handful of snaps and made more tackles than he got targets.
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
As you were with Asiasi playing some snaps but not as a receiving TE, and Keene still hasn’t seen the field for New England.
Cole Kmet’s snap share continues to hover around 30-percent but he didn’t get any targets in week 3, while Adam Trautman took advantage of a Jared Cook injury to get a significant bump to his playing time. Didn’t turn in to much on the target front though I’m afraid.
After getting himself a couple of targets in week one, Deguara sat out weeks two & three due to injury. When he does recover, it’s a crowded Tight End room in Green Bay.
Harrison Bryant is getting a healthy snap share in Njoku’s absence but only getting a couple of targets as the Browns continue to heavily use their running backs.
Injury continues to keep out Albert O and Colby Parkinson while Brycen Hopkins was once again a healthy scratch – copy, paste from week 2.
Week Four
Week three was the week of disappointing rookie running backs and rookie receiver blow-ups. Team tendencies are continuing to refine and it doesn’t look great for some.
CEH and Taylor are locked in starters and Joe Burrow is becoming a reliable QB1. Undrafted James Robinson can be started with confidence now too.
Other than that, there’s doubts everywhere. Lamb and Jeudy are startable but they need to start turning their targets in to production soon for them to retain a place in your fantasy lineups. Same can be said for Joshua Kelley and we want to see Antonio Gibson’s trajectory moving up to gain confidence with him.
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- KJ Hamler – potential WR1 role in Denver against a weak Jets side in prime time
- Justin Jefferson – can he continue to hold the WR2 role and help improve Minnesota’s fortunes
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.