Bowl Mania: New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico Bowl

When: Saturday, December 16th @ 5:45 PM ET

Where: Albuquerque, New Mexico

Who: Fresno State (8-4) vs. New Mexico State (10-4)

Spread & Total: New Mexico State -3.5; O/U 51.5

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Tale of the Take: Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State won their first five games and found themselves ranked. A trip to Laramie, Wyoming, was the first hiccup for the Bulldogs. After rattling off three straight victories against conference foes, Fresno State found themselves in the hunt for a Mountain West Championship appearance. Quarterback Mikey Keene was knocked out of the San Jose State game, leaving Logan Fife to fill in the void. Fresno State lost their last three in the regular season, but did see Keene return for the regular season finale. Fresno State went 2-2 against bowl eligible teams this season.

Offensively, Fresno State is extremely pass oriented. The Bulldogs average the 9th most pass attempts per game (39.8). On the other end of the spectrum, they average 28.4 rush attempts per game, 7th fewest nationally. The 3.7 YPC mark ranks 107th nationally, the 4th worse mark among bowl eligible teams.

Defensively, Fresno State is strong at slowing down the passing game. Opposing quarterbacks average just 56.2% completion rate, a top-15 mark nationally. Their 16 interceptions is tied for top-5 in the country. Fresno State allows just 4.3 YPC

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

LT Jacob Spomer

Starting left tackle

HC Jeff Tedford

Missing bowl game due to an undisclosed illness

 

Transfer Portal Departures:

QB Logan Fife

Backup quarterback

S Crishawn Gordon

IOL Hayden Pulis

LB Raymond Scott

LB Tanner Blount

 

Players to Know:

#1 QB Mikey Keene

Starting quarterback; transfer from Central Florida. Career 65.7% completion rate, 44 touchdowns to 16 interceptions

#6 LB Levelle Bailey

2023 All-Mountain West Football Second Team. 72 total tackles (41 solo) ranked third on the team. Three interceptions, five pass breakups, and 1.5 sacks

#2 DB Carlton Johnson

2023 All-Mountain West Football Second Team. 53 total tackles (38 solo). Four interceptions (eight for his career), seven pass breakups

Preview: Bowl Mania: Cure Bowl

Tale of the Tape: New Mexico State Aggies

The Aggies opened up their 2023 regular season with a concerning loss to Massachusetts at home. After a win over a FCS Western Illinois and 16-point loss to Liberty, it could not have started worse for New Mexico State. But the resilient group got hot, winning nine of their next ten before a rematch in the Conference USA title game against Liberty. Start quarterback was knocked out of the game, and the Aggies fell 49-35. They gear up for their 15th game of the season against Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. The Aggies went 3-2 against bowl eligible teams, with both losses at the hands of Liberty.

Offensively, the Aggies are more run-oriented thanks to star quarterback Diego Pavia’s ability to run. He’s the team’s leading rusher with 139 carries and 980 yards (removing sack yards lost). Star Thomas is the team’s top used back, but typically gets seven to 12 carries a game. Pavia spreads the ball around, with three receivers over 30 receptions but none over 40.

Defensively, the Aggies will have to slow down Fresno State’s passing attack. That’s been their weakness this year; against bowl eligible teams – Liberty (twice), Auburn, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky – opposing quarterbacks average 252.2 YPG, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. They allow 444 YPG and 27.6 PPG against bowl teams. Their six interceptions is tied for the second fewest among bowl eligible teams.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

QB Diego Pavia

Was hurt in the Conference USA Championship game with a shoulder injury, but expected to play in the bowl game

QB Blaze Berlowitz

Third-string QB; was injured during the Conference USA Championship game

Transfer Portal Departures:

WR Trent Hudson

Led the team with 10 receiving touchdowns

WR PJ Johnson III

WR Ta’ir Brooks

TE Tyler Devera

WR Jordin Parker

DL Tyriece Thomas

CB Reggie Akles

S Malachi McLean

 

Player to Know:

#10 QB Diego Pavia

All-Conference USA Second Team . Completes 58.6% of his attempts in his two years as the starter. 39 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and 8.2 YPA. Rushed for over 1,500 yards in his two years as the starter.

#26 DT Sterling Webb

All-Conference USA First Team. 4.5 sacks is tied for team lead

#44 Keyshaun Elliott

All-Conference USA Second Team. 101 total tackles (55 solo) leads the team. 2.5 sacks, five pass breakups, one forced fumble and recovery.

Bowl Game Trends:

• Fresno State: 3-7 ATS in bowl games since 2008
• New Mexico Bowl: Mountain West – 11-5 (won L4; 7 of L10)
• New Mexico Bowl: Conference USA – 1-5 (all against Mountain West)

Game Synopsis:

The absence of head coach Tedford for the Bulldogs could loom large, but Fresno State has had time to form a game plan for the New Mexico Bowl. Both teams’ offensive strengths could flourish against the opposing defense’s weakness. I think this is a high scoring game, but will go with the defense that can create more pressure and turnovers, and that’s Fresno State.

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Fresno State

Bowl Mania Confidence: 8/43

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