Bowl Mania: Idaho Potato Bowl

2023 Idaho Potato Bowl

When: Saturday, December 23rd @ 3:30 PM ET

Where: Boise, Idaho

Who: Georgia State (6-6) vs. Utah State (6-6)

Spread & Total: Utah State -1.5; O/U 59.5

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Tale of the Take: Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State had a tale of two halves of their 2023 season. A weak early nonconference schedule consisted of hosting Rhode Island, UCONN, and at Charlotte had the Panthers at 3-0. After a hot start, Georgia State won three of their first four Sun Belt games to clinch a bowl berth by the middle of October. But that’s when the wheels fell off for the Panthers. The Panthers lost their last five games – all to bowl eligible teams – to finish 6-6. Georgia State went 3-6 against bowl eligible teams and 2-1 in one possession games.

Offensively, Georgia State relied heavily on the ground game. Marcus Carroll handled 86.7% of the team’s running back carries; he entered the transfer portal. Backup KZ Adams is also in the transfer portal; he had 35 carries for 61 yards (1.7 YPC). No other Georgia State running back had double-digit carries. Carroll and quarterback Darren Grainger totaled 21 of the team’s 22 rushing touchdowns. Grainger averaged 28 passing attempts per game.

Defensively, there was a significant drop off in the Panthers’ defense in the middle of the season. In their first seven games, the Panthers allowed just 22.9 PPG. In their last five games, the Panthers surrendered 41.8 PPG enroute to a five game skid. The Panthers ranked 131st in passing yards allowed, and the 2nd most among bowl eligible teams. The 8.5 YPA is 125th in the country and tied with Oklahoma State for the worst among bowl eligible teams. 28 passing touchdowns allowed is 127th in the country.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries: N/A

Transfer Portal Departures:

RB Marcus Carroll

2023 All-Sun Belt First Team Offense. Led the Panthers with 274 carries, 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns. 3rd in receiving yards (234)

RB KZ Adams

Backup to Carroll; only other running back with double-digit carries this year (35 for 61; 1.7 YPC)

WR Robert Lewis

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Offense. Led the Panthers with 70 receptions, 877 yards and seven touchdowns.

CB Bryquice Brown

Team lead six pass breakups. Recovered a fumble and had an interception to go along with 35 total tackles (25 solo)

RB Jaquon Dixon

WR Rico Arnold

OT Montavious Cunningham

CB Tony McCrary

S Jalen Tate

 

Players to Know:

#3 QB Darren Grainger

2023 Sun Belt Honorable Mention. Three-year starter; completed 67% of his attempts for 7 YPA. Threw for 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 2nd leading rusher on the team with 121 carries for 715 yards, net of sack yards, and eight touchdowns.

#1 LB Jontrey Hunter

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Defense. Led the team with 95 total tackles (50 solo) and three forced fumbles; added four pass breakups and 1.5 sacks

#3 CB Gavin Pringle

2023 All-Sun Belt Third Team Defense. Led the team with four interceptions, returning one for a touchdown. Four pass breakups and 37 total tackles (25 solo); added 1.5 sacks

Preview: Bowl Mania: Boca Raton Bowl

Tale of the Tape: Utah State Aggies

Utah State began the year slow, losing to their first FBS opponents; the Aggies handled business against FCS Idaho State. They found themselves back to five hundred after two wins against UCONN and Colorado State. Losing their next two against Fresno State and at San Jose State put the Aggies against the wall for bowl eligibility. Needing to win three of their last four, the Aggies did just that. It took two road double-overtime games at San Diego State and New Mexico, but Utah State made it to a bowl game for the 3rd-straight year. Utah State went 0-6 against bowl eligible teams, and 3-2 in one possession games.

Offensively, the Aggies were one of the best teams in the Mountain West. Utah State averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game, completing just 61.9% of their attempts. They averaged 7.7 YPA, and the 33 passing touchdowns is tied for 7th-most in FBS. The rushing attack was just as strong, averaging 38.7 rush attempts per game and 4.8 YPC. The 4.8 YPC ranked 32nd nationally.

Defensively, Utah State is one of the worst defenses among bowl eligible teams. The 33.8 PPG allowed is 4th among bowl eligible teams. Their run defense is the 2nd worst with just under 200 YPG allowed. They allow 4.8 YPC and saw 41.6 attempts per game, the 6th most in FBS. The 28 rushing touchdowns allowed is tied for the 8th most in FBS and 2nd most among bowl eligible teams. They did force 15 fumbles, the 6th most in FBS. Utah State saw 33.6 pass attempts per game and held opposing quarterbacks to 57.1% completion rate. They allowed just 6.4 YPA, but the 24 passing touchdowns allowed was tied for the 16th-most in FBS.

Opt Outs: N/A

Injuries:

QB Cooper Legas

Left the game against Boise State; 30 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and over 3,300 passing yards over the last two years.

Transfer Portal Departures:

S Devin Dye

2023 Mountain West Honorable Mention Defense. Team lead seven pass breakups. Added 81 total tackles (37 solo); two interceptions, one forced fumble and fumble recovery

RB Reggie Foster

DL Adam Tomczyk

DL Vaughn Mamea

DT Siaosi Lauhingoa

CB Malone Mataele

 

Player to Know:

#1 WR Jalen Royals

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Offense. Led the team with 68 receptions and 1,023 yards. 14 receiving touchdowns was tied for 2nd most nationally, only trailing Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU

#2 LB MJ Tafisi Jr.

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Defense. Led the team with 131 total tackles (11th nationally; 50 solo). Forced two fumbles and recorded one pass breakup

#6 S Ike Larsen

2023 All-Mountain West Football First Team Defense. 2nd on the team with 91 tackles (51 solo) and six pass breakups. Led the team with four interceptions, returning one for a touchdown; forced one fumble

Bowl Game Trends:

• Utah State: 5th appearance in the 2023 Idaho Potato Bowl is the most in the bowl series (1-3)
• Utah State’s Blake Anderson is 3-5 all-time in bowl games (1-1 at Utah State)
• Georgia State: 3-2 in bowl games since becoming a FBS program in 2013
• Georgia State’s Shawn Elliott is 3-1 all-time in bowl games, all at Georgia State

Game Synopsis:

Georgia State’s running back room is depleted from the transfer portal. This will put pressure on Grainger and likely leave him as the primary rusher. The weakness of this Aggies’ defense is on the ground, and there is a chance we see more run-pass-option to assist Grainger.

The loss of Brown in Georgia State’s secondary does not help their already vulnerable pass defense. The Aggies will likely turn to McCae Hillstead in Legas’ absence; he has 147 attempts this year. In what should be a higher scoring bowl game, thanks to two bad defenses, I have more confidence in the Aggies. Utah State takes the 2023 Idaho Potato Bowl

Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Utah State

Bowl Mania Confidence: 4/43

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