Fantasy Depth Charge: Players to Draft from Crowded Rooms
Fantasy Depth Charge: Players to Draft from Crowded Rooms
The NFL season is upon us (in 10 days, that is), and there will be a flurry of news related to each team’s individual depth charts to sort through. The preseason offered precious little information to that end, as most teams concentrated on their individual second- and third-stringers hoping to make the team. That’s not a lot of help for fantasy football managers with oh-so-coveted home league drafts to capitalize on between now and next Thursday’s kickoff.
Luckily, there is information out there to lean on. We can’t predict with 100 percent certainty how the pecking order at each position will fill out. Frankly, even depth charts are not that reliable. Remember when Zac Taylor put UDFA Damion Willis atop the WR depth chart in 2019? Granted, there were injuries in preseason, but Willis went on to post 9/82/0 in his only NFL season. Teams are also big fans of giving the first couple runs to a running back who then disappears and cedes 18-straight totes to the guy. It’s like an appetizer or something.
Let’s take a look at just a few of the positional draft debates so you know where your allegiances should lie. Then, crack open a beverage and set out to dominate your friends.
Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers
This has been a hot button debate all summer, ever since Stefon Diggs was dealt to Houston in a “just take him” deal. The beneficiary then appeared to be tight end Dalton Kincaid, and it still is. With that said, quarterback Josh Allen is not likely to be satisfied unless he still gets to air it out from time to time. Not only that, Buffalo has stated publicly that Dawson Knox is still going to be heavily featured in the offense. This is bad news for Kincaid managers who will likely be poached whenever Allen changes the play at the LOS.
Rookie Keon Coleman (FSU) shot up dynasty draft boards and best ball rankings as managers still had NFL draft fever. Putting faith in Coleman to be the 1a in Buffalo is a bad idea. He’s currently slated to run from the outside opposite Curtis Samuel, meaning they hope to put his ability to grab “anyone’s ball” to the test. He’d better, because his 4.61 speed and questionable route running isn’t likely to gain much separation. Coleman has a ways to go after catching three balls for 12 yards in the preseason.
Samuel is the odds-on pick to lead this team in targets if his health cooperates, but he is already behind the 8-ball. The Bills have stated that the wideout who collected 63/634.5/4 average over his last two seasons in Washington will be ready to go Week 1, despite turf toe. It’s a tricky situation, as turf toe can be easily aggravated and depending on severity can leave a player out for a week to over a month. If healthy, has as good of a chance as anyone to lead the corps without other big names commanding attention… but turf toe is not joke, and that’s a big “if”.
So Who’s the Play?
It seems as though 24-year-old Khalil Shakir is primed for a year three breakout. After playing just 29 percent of snaps as a rookie in 2022, last year his usage nearly doubled to 52 percent in 10 starts (played in all 17). He ranked in the league’s top 12 of snaps from the slot, 15th in YAC/R, and had an 86.7% catch rate. His 4.63 speed enables him to separate both off the LOS and in stride. Simply put, Shakir has the highest ceiling of the Bills wide receivers and should easily double 39/611/2 from last year when he was a part-timer. He’s also the only wideout on the roster who has familiarity with Allen. He is coming off the board at WR50 in drafts, and should be the first Bills wide receiver taken.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers boast an underwhelming receiving corps looking for someone to step up. Adding to the mystique is their juggling act with their (temporary) depth charts throughout the offseason. As it stands now, rookie Ladd McConkey (UGA) will assume the slot role from day one, flanked by Joshua Palmer and D.J. Chark. It’s a fair assumption that that lineup may endure some shakeups this season, with only McConkey the likely fantasy constant.
While Chark may indeed open the season on the field as the seasoned veteran of the group, the chances of him producing meaningful fantasy stats for managers is somewhere between slim and none, and slim just left town. The money should probably be on Quentin Johnston to assume that role. In an effort to outrun the “bust” label, he has been working closely with wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal and it has showed in flashes this offseason.
Who Steps Up? Bueller… Bueller…
None of the three are particularly good route runners, a departure for quarterback Justin Herbert who had arguably the best in the league in Keenan Allen until now. Ladd McConkey has to be the high-floor/high-ceiling pick of the litter. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will be looking for a heavy ground attack and short passes to move the ball down the field. Herbert also is suffering from planter faciitis, a painful condition in the tissue that connects the heel to the toes. Although no major tears were detected, it does not quickly go away and often causes adjustments in stance, foot strength, and mobility which can lead to knee and hip issues. This is going to make the slot and tight end positions that much more important to him.
Herbert will play through the pain, and will use all of his receivers as he usually does. But the lackluster options mean it could be a different guy each week. McConkley will maintain reliability, and therefore managers should be willing to reach for him above his ECR of #99. Palmer and either of Johnston or Chark (depending who starts) are WR3/Flex plays based on weekly opponents.
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Cincinnati Bengals
The 2024 offseason witnessed the departure of the Cincinnati Bengals’ rock-toting six year starter Joe Mixon in a cost-cutting move. The changing of the guard in the Queen City backfield now falls to two running backs, both of whom bring unique skillsets to the table.
26 year-old Zack Moss is on his third team since 2020, having had marginal success in a complementary role before taking off as the replacement for the injured Jonathan Taylor last season. Chase Brown enters his sophomore year with the club, bringing along a mere 44 carries with flashes of excitement among his 14 receptions. On December 12, for instance, Brown took a screen and galloped 54 yards while registering a top speed of 22.05mph, then the second-fastest speed by a ball carrier on the season.
The narrative on this backfield has been topsy-turvy all summer long amongst fantasy players. Many assumed we had another De’Von Achane on our hands and were ready to hand the reins to Brown. Then level heads prevailed with the argument that Moss was simply irreplaceable while Jonathan Taylor missed time in Indianapolis. Finally the two sides met in a the middle, shook hands and declared this a 1-and-1a committee approach. Not so fast.
Brown is in his second year and as mentioned before, has precious little game experience, which coach Taylor values above all else. Additionally, having him share carries between the tackles has a dangerous way of taking away what makes him so special. Top all that off with his erratic pass-blocking and it could very well blow up in their face.
2024 free agency began on March 13. The Cincinnati Bengals signed Moss less that 24 hours later. That’s going after your target from the jump. For a team to show that level of urgency speaks volumes to what sort of role they expected a player to fill. In addition to experience, Zac Taylor values a single-back approach to his game plan, when he has a downhill runner with a nose for the end zone in the rough and tumble AFC North. Chase Brown (ECR #113 overall) is appropriately ranked in redraft. Moss is the player that can flourish in your starting lineup, and at ECR #90, he is ranked too low and could return value in spades.
Elsewhere in Cincinnati
It would be a mistake to leave out the WR3 in one of the most flammable offenses in the league. It’s hard to say which way Taylor will go here, but it’s a safe bet it won’t be Jermaine Burton. The rookie out of Alabama has had questions about his maturation. Even more telling on the field is that a source close to the team said that Burton was “Having trouble with the playbook” and “He has a lot of work to do.” None of that has shown in his preseason action where he has been lighting up the opposition with his athleticism, albeit not catching passes from Joe Burrow. He’s not a wash for 2024, once he fixes his issues, so stash him on a watch list. His physicality is off the charts, so seeing him as one of the kick returners is not out of the question.
That means Andrei Iosivas (aka “Yoshi”) could be in store for a larger role, after a 2023 that saw him emerge as a red zone threat. Taylor could run several different packages here, however. Trenton Irwin has been long trusted by the coaching staff as a reliable backup and could see some more snaps, although he is better suited as a field-stretcher behind Ja’Marr Chase on the depth chart. With the Bengals expected to keep at least four tight ends on the roster, Taylor has also hinted at a dual-TE set wherein newcomer Mike Gesicki lines up in the slot. With deeper rosters, Yoshi is worth a late round flier. And if anything were to happen to Tee Higgins, you can expect the former’s snap count explode into fantasy football league-winner levels.
One of These Things is Just Like the Other
The similarities between the backfields of Washington and Tennessee are uncanny because, well, the similarities between the players involved are uncanny. It’s hard to make heads or tales of the situation, but we can make an educated guess.
In Washington, Brian Robinson Jr. is unlikely to lose the job even to a (now healthy) Austin Ekeler. While Robinson is likely to get more carries, he is still on shaky ground. A few costly fumbles or missed blocks in front of Jayden Daniels could lead to a hostile takeover by the experienced Ekeler if he’s producing fantasy points like everyone knows he’s able. Either way, it’s not out of the question for both to split drives depending on the flow of the game. They both run hard and are adept at pulling in passes and making things happen. Each should produce Flex appeal, with the nod going to Robinson off the board first, just as he has been in most drafts to this point.
The Titans had an electric third down back, dangerous in space and comes with a devastating stiff arm in the open field (especially given his size). Then they fooled everyone by going out and signing an electric third down back, dangerous in space, with a devastating stiff arm in the open field. Wait… what?
What’s the Problem?
Someone has to run inside, right? Tyjae Spears looked like the future even before Derrick Henry left for Baltimore. Spears quietly amassed 453 yards on 100 carries in relief (4.5ypc) and tacked on a healthy 52 catches for good measure. Signing Tony Pollard was a head-scratching move at the time because the backs can each do a lot of the same things. Pollard was largely knocked as a disappointment as the backfield main attraction in Dallas when he found paydirt just six times.
The numbers weren’t all bad, though: Pollard broke 1,000 yards rushing and tacked on another 300-plus receiving. Those numbers alone tell me that Pollard needed a complimentary back. Pairing him with Spears does just that, and allows new head coach Brian Callahan to continue to deploy Spears all over the field. The two will likely still switch roles often to keep the defense on its toes.
Both Pollard (ECR #79 overall) and Spears (#95) are fantasy Flex plays, and it won’t be long before one emerges as a reliable starter for fantasy managers. It apropos that if Pollard gets the bulk of the carries on early downs he comes with a higher price tag in drafts. Spears’ is likely a little low with his game-breaking ability. If the former Dallas running back is anything less than efficient, the team will not hesitate to switch to his younger, faster, more elusive counterpart.
Buyer Beware
Jonathon Brooks (#87) and Nick Chubb (#92) are likely both ranked too highly. There’s a healthy contingent of fantasy players who assume that “no news is good news”, and that’s simply not the case. No news means there is nothing to tell, and for someone returning from a torn ACL, the not knowing is the worst part, so you’d better have a contingency plan in the meantime.
Brooks is on a better track courtesy of the fact that it was a single-ligament tear. Carolina expects to have him back as soon as Week 3 or 4, but he won’t just step into a full workload after not being on the practice field. Chuba Hubbard figures to still be a factor throughout 2024, likely splitting carries with Brooks on a team that won’t need to rush back their young stud.
Chubb is more complicated. Yes, the guy is a monster and puts in the work. Yes, we’ve all seen him lifting ungodly amounts of weight while hopping to-and-fro. But Chubb experience a multi-ligament tear that required two surgeries. It is not uncommon for that type of injury to shelve someone for up to two years. In his case, it doesn’t seem like it will, but expecting him back sooner rather than later (let alone being anywhere near his former self) is foolhardy. If he does return in 2024, it will be in a committee with Jerome Ford and sneaky fantasy sleeper pick D’Onta Foreman.
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