In this series, we’ll look at current bestball ADP and identify players who stand out as targets or fades based on their current price, as well as other trends in the bestball landscape and takeaways from recent drafts.
ADP’s are courtesy of Underdog. Come find me in their draft lobby all offseason!
Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers
ADP: 72.1 (WR34)
Robby Anderson saw an unexpected role change in his first season with the Carolina Panthers in 2020. He was used as the primary possession receiver after being seen as more of a vertical threat playing with Sam Darnold and the Jets.
|
Season |
Air Yards/Target |
|
2016 |
16.7
|
|
2017 |
12.7 |
|
2018 |
15.9 |
|
2019 |
14.2
|
|
2020 |
9.6 |
Anderson now gets reunited with Darnold in 2021, and while very few expect Darnold to suddenly become a plus NFL passer after a change of scenery, the fact that these two have a history together can’t be taken as a negative.
See Where Robby Anderson Lands In Our Bestball Rankings!
Anderson saw the 11th most valuable workload among all wide receivers last season in terms of expected fantasy points. Curtis Samuel has since moved on to the Washington Football Team, leaving Anderson and DJ Moore as the two primary wide receivers. The Panthers had four(!) skill position players reach 1000 yards from scrimmage in 2020, all with Teddy Bridgewater and company. We shouldn’t simply expect a massive increase in target share for Anderson due to Samuel’s vacated targets, but a potential consolidation of featured weapons for the Panthers should have us feeling very confident in the volume he’ll see this season.
Despite the solid season overall, he only had three touchdowns and two WR1 performances in 2020. Even if he is still primarily used as a possession receiver again in 2021, the volume he projects to see has inherent upside that tends to get undervalued in bestball. In the early/middle rounds, Anderson is one of the best bets to outperform his current ADP and deliver a positive win rate.
Carolina Panthers Team Profile
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens
ADP: 112.2 (RB39)
Just like the Panthers’ wide receiver group, the Baltimore Ravens lost one of their top three running backs in Mark Ingram in free agency. While JK Dobbins has coincidingly seen a bump in his stock and overall 2021 expectations, Edwards is still sitting in the RB4 range in bestball drafts.
It’s fair to say we don’t know exactly how the Ravens are going to split the backfield work going forward, but so far there’s nothing to suggest they’re going to thrust Dobbins into a bellcow role (he saw less than 50% of the offensive snaps in 9 of 16 games last season). And if you’re going to bet on an RB2 of a committee, you might as well bet on the RB2 on the most run-oriented team we’ve seen in several years.
In the four games that Ingram missed and both Dobbins and Edwards played, Dobbins averaged a 56.5% snap share to Edwards’ 40%. However, like for much of the season, Edwards saw opportunities at a higher rate when he was on the field, averaging 15.25 opportunities in these four games compared to 14.5 for Dobbins.
Given the draft capital the Ravens spent on RB just last season, and the fact that they didn’t feel the need to keep Ingram around likely insulates Edwards from the risk of the Ravens taking another back early in this year’s draft. With that in mind, even if they put a little more on Dobbins’ plate in year two, Edwards is still going to be involved plenty throughout the season. And if they go into the season without a third back that the team trusts, there’s also an outside chance for him to take on a lead back workload were Dobbins to be injured at some point. This upside scenario doesn’t seem to be baked into his ADP at this point in the offseason.
The Ravens’ running backs are well suited for bestball, even if their target volume isn’t as high as we’d like to see. Their rushing tendencies near the end zone create a lot of touchdown equity for their running backs (and Lamar Jackson, of course). This leads to big spike weeks that are hard to predict in lineup setting formats, but are exactly what you want from your later round picks in bestball. With Dobbins being pushed up into the RB Dead Zone of drafts, the smarter investment is to secure his backfield counterpart 90 spots later.
