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Early Round Fantasy Values: The Good and the Bad
The early rounds of a fantasy draft are always the most exciting. It’s where the superstars are taken, and it’s where a big chunk of your team’s points come from. It’s crucial to make the right selections early on because of how much draft capital you’re spending on each pick. You can’t afford to mess up in this area. Let me guide you through each of the early rounds and highlight who I believe are the best and worst values. For the sake of not repeating myself, I’ll clear a few things up: I consider the early rounds to be 1-5. When I mention a player’s ADP, I’m using Underdog Fantasy as my reference point. When I mention fantasy points, I’m referring to 0.5 PPR unless stated otherwise. I’m looking through all of this through the lens of best ball, but it’s also applicable to redraft leagues. With all that being said, let’s get started!
Round 1
Best value: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (3.0 ADP, RB2)
I’ll admit, it’s hard to label CMC as a “value” when he goes in the top three. In my eyes, however, he should be going 1st overall, even in Underdog’s 0.5 PPR format. There is obvious injury risk here, but I don’t believe anyone else has the ceiling McCaffrey does. Over the last two seasons, CMC has averaged 22.8 PPG in games when he is healthy. For reference, Jonathan Taylor averaged 20.9 PPG in 2021. If you’re scared of injuries, best ball may not be for you. Players get hurt all of the time. At some point, betting on the talent and ceiling of CMC has to outweigh his injury risks. If you’re picking in the top two, consider taking CMC. If you’re picking 3rd, you’re getting some great value.
Worst value: Derrick Henry, Titans (7.4 ADP, RB4)
I realize Henry has been an absolute freak on the field over the last few years, but his time as a truly elite fantasy RB may be coming to an end. For starters, he missed half of the 2021 season with a foot injury. Additionally, he simply isn’t used in the passing game. In six years, he’s never eclipsed 19 catches or 31 targets in a single campaign. I could be wrong, but I don’t see that changing dramatically any time soon. Henry’s efficiency on the ground has also quietly been slowing down the past few years. Mike Tanier at Football Outsiders wrote a great piece on Henry’s inevitable decline. I won’t recap the entire article here, but one stat that I found noteworthy was his broken/missed tackle percentage. His numbers in that area have fallen off harshly every year since 2018, falling from 23.7% to 9.6% in 2021. Henry has survived due to his absurd volume, but I don’t know if we can bank on that moving forward. Considering that he got hurt last year, and the fact Tennessee spent a mid-round pick on Hassan Haskins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Henry *only* got around 22-25 carries per game this year. Honestly, given his lack of pass catching upside, I wouldn’t take Henry in the first round of fantasy drafts.
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Round 2
Best value: Aaron Jones, Packers (18.0 ADP, RB9)
Aaron Jones is one of my favorite picks in all of fantasy for 2022. Being able to get him in the mid to late 2nd is a bargain in my eyes. I know Jones may be in a bit of a timeshare with A.J. Dillon, but I’m not concerned with that. Jones’ fantasy value comes from his receiving upside. The loss of Davante Adams is massive for the Packers, and while they don’t play the same position, Jones looks to be a huge beneficiary from Adams’ departure. Jones has recorded at least 47 catches and 65 targets in 3 straight seasons. Dwain McFarland of PFF made a mini Twitter thread highlighting Jones’ usage as a receiver. Below are Jones’ fantasy performances in games with Adams.
If you exclude the first game in Jones’ rookie year where he barely played, the average rises to 25.7 (!!!). Considering Green Bay didn’t do much to address their need at receiver, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones took more snaps out wide and finished with 90+ targets. This is the type of high-ceiling player that can carry you in the fantasy playoffs. Get him whenever you can.
Worst value: Ceedee Lamb, Cowboys (13.4 ADP, WR6)
Honestly, I don’t think there’s anyone in the 2nd round that is a glaringly bad value. However, I think Lamb fits the bill the most, and I find myself passing on him in this range constantly. In his first two seasons, Lamb hasn’t really lived up to the hype of his draft status. He hasn’t been bad by any means, but he’s had plenty of opportunities to step up and simply hasn’t done so. He’s finished as the WR24 and WR18 in each of his first two seasons. Lamb was unable to take advantage of Amari Cooper missing two games last year, while Michael Gallup missed eight games. Lamb had just two games of 20+ points last season. When you’re drafting a player this high, you need many more ceiling games than that. You also can’t have eight floor games, which is how many times Lamb scored under 9 fantasy points last year. Lamb will undoubtebly line up as the WR1 in Dallas, but is that enough to make him a borderline 1st round pick?
Round 3
Best value: James Conner, Cardinals (33.2 ADP, RB15)
James Conner finished as the RB5 last year. Chase Edmonds left for Miami, and Conner is going in the late 3rd round now? Make it make sense. I realize 45% of his fantasy points came from TDs. That is an absurdly high rate that is likely to decline, but not enough to push him this late in drafts. With Edmonds gone, Conner projects to get a higher target share. He has shown he’s a quality pass catcher throughout his career. The Cardinals still have a good offense, so there will be plenty of red zone opportunities for him. I’m not really concerned with the signing of Darrell Williams or the 6th round pick of Keontay Ingram. Williams has shown he’s a good backup, and not much more. Ingram is a big-play threat, but I doubt Arizona plays him much considering he isn’t proven in pass protection, and never topped 250 receiving yards in a season in college. Conner should still get the majority of the snaps, and I expect another top 12 finish for him at the RB position.
Worst value: Keenan Allen, Chargers (28.0 ADP, WR12)
I’ll admit, I’ve been a huge Allen advocate every year. He was my 2nd most owned WR in best ball drafts last season. If this were a redraft league, or even DraftKing’s PPR format, I’d say he’s a solid pick. He’s consistent, but he simply lacks a huge ceiling at this point. In 2017, Allen finished as the WR3. Since then, he’s finished in the top 10 just once, and hasn’t been a top 12 receiver in either of the past two seasons. In best ball formats, you need players capable of spike weeks. Can Allen provide that for you? He hasn’t had a 20+ point fantasy performance since Week 11 of 2020. He’s not a deep ball threat, so he’s going to have to record an absurd amount of catches and/or score multiple TDs to have a ceiling game. It’s not to say that he won’t, but it’s starting to seem less likely. Allen is now 30 years old, and we know how many players fall off at that age. I recently read an article by Mike Braude of Apex Fantasy. Mike wrote about the peak age for receivers, and highlighted how rare it is for receivers to peak once they turn 30. “As the thresholds are raised, the average age becomes younger with peak WR seasons over the age of 30 becoming less and less frequent.” As I said earlier, Allen was the WR3 in 2017. I think we’ve seen his peak. If you’re drafting on Underdog, 28.0 is simply too high of a price for the 30-year old slot receiver.
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Round 4
Best value: D.J. Moore, Panthers (36.8 ADP, WR17)
Moore is juuuust able to sneak into round four as his ADP continues to fall. He’s being overlooked because he’s on a bad team with a bad QB. I understand the concerns, but Moore just continues to produce fantasy points. He’s finished no worse than WR22 in each of the past three years, while only scoring 12 receiving TDs in that span. Those TD numbers may sound bad, but I think it’s a good thing. It shows he’s due for some major regression, given his usage. Moore was tied for 4th in the league in target share, and tied for 5th in team air yards share last season. Additionally, in 2021 he was expected to score over two points per game more than he finished with, according to Upside Fantasy. Moore and fellow Maryland alum Stefon Diggs are the only receivers with 1100+ receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. Moore is simply consistent and reliable. I know this may sound hypocritical given how I just talked down on Allen for being consistent while lacking a huge ceiling, but the difference is the age and expected TD regression for Moore. It may look bleak given his QB situation, but if he can keep up his production while regressing to the mean in TD rate, Moore can be a WR1 this year.
Worst value: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (43.1 ADP, WR20)
In 2020, Jeudy finished as the WR44 overall, and WR58 in PPG. In response to that, his ADP going into 2021 was in the late 60s in most drafts. In 2021, Jeudy finished as the WR90 overall, and WR71 in PPG. He’s currently going 43rd overall and 20th among WRs. Do you see a pattern here? I realize Russell Wilson is a major upgrade at QB over what the Broncos have trotted out the past two years. I just don’t think it’s enough to justify Jeudy’s price. Courtland Sutton still looks to be the Broncos’ #1 WR. Denver also has two talented RBs, a good 3rd WR and two promising young TEs. Jeudy has just two games of 20+ fantasy points in his young career, and both came in 2020. I expect Jeudy to have a good season and set career-highs in many areas, but I think fans are over-valuing how much Wilson will lift him up.
Round 5
Best value: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (52.7 ADP, QB4)
Honestly, there are multiple good values in this round, but I’m rolling with who I think has a good shot at finishing as the QB1. Last year was a disaster for the Ravens. Virtually every RB on the roster got hurt. Both starting offensive tackles missed the majority of the season. Marquise Brown dropped approximately 50 passes. First-round pick Rashod Bateman missed five games. Lamar, himself, missed five games. Despite all of that, Jackson still finished as the QB8 in PPG. The WR room is still lacking, but I think Bateman and Andrews are enough for him to remain elite due to his obvious rushing upside. After all, we’re only a few years removed from Jackson breaking fantasy. As long as his offensive line stays healthy, I have no doubt he’ll be a top 3 QB this season. Jackson is currently my highest-owned QB on Underdog, and you’ll be kicking yourself if you don’t draft him, too.
Worst value: Gabe Davis, Bills (50.5 ADP, WR24)
Can someone explain what I’m missing here? Last year, Davis finished as the WR49 in PPG, and WR58 overall. He scored less points than Mecole Hardman, Robby Anderson, and Robert Woods (who missed half the season with a torn ACL). Now, he’s going as the WR24. Davis has relied heavily on touchdowns in his first two seasons. To be exact, 34.2% of his regular season fantasy points (in 0.5 PPR formats) have come from touchdowns. That’s an absurdly high rate that surely can’t sustain. Ask yourself this: “If he didn’t score four TDs in his last playoff game, what would Davis’ ADP be right now?” Personally, I think it would be in the late 60s. Scoring touchdowns is impressive, but they are highly variant and hard to predict. What’s easier to predict is volume. There are plenty of other WRs in this range that look to get far more targets, and I want to be chasing those. I understand Cole Beasley and Manny Sanders are no longer in Buffalo, but this is simply high for Davis. Diggs is still the clear alpha, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Dawson Knox and/or Jamison Crowder outperformed him.
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