Don’t Forget About Austin Ekeler In 2021
While not exactly a sleeper, some people may have forgotten just how productive Austin Ekeler is for fantasy purposes. While younger upstarts like Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, and Jonathan Taylor are rocketing up into high-end RB1 territory, it is Ekeler who could remind us just how high his fantasy ceiling is, and how it could still go even higher.
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Since replacing Melvin Gordon in Los Angeles, Ekeler has established himself as one of the most versatile and dynamic playmakers at the running back position. In a 2019 season that saw Ekeler thoroughly outplay Gordon, even after Gordon’s holdout ended (Ekeler totaled 958 total yards and 6 total TDs), the 24-year-old turned 240 total touches into 1,550 total yards (including 993 receiving yards) and 11 total touchdowns, finishing the year as the overall RB4 for PPR leagues.
In 2020, rookie stud QB Justin Herbert peppered Ekeler with nearly seven targets per game, resulting in a healthy 17.3% target share (4th-highest among all RBs) to go along with a solid 7.5 yards per route. Unfortunately for both Ekeler and the Chargers, his season was shortened by a severe hamstring injury that caused him to miss eight weeks. After coming back in Week 12, Ekeler saw 48 targets in the remaining six games.
With Austin Ekeler back at full strength again for 2021, there are many reasons to get excited about the 25-year-old who could very well remind fantasy owners why he is one of the most valuable backs in fantasy.
Justin Herbert and the New-Look Chargers Offense
While Ekeler is obviously extremely talented in his own right and has earned the workload he has received, he undoubtedly was aided by the limits of the Chargers offense. His first two seasons playing overlapped with the last two seasons that Phillip Rivers spent in town, as the aging veteran routinely checked down to Ekeler in the passing game. His 108 targets in 2019 were more than any running back not named Christian McCaffrey, and he led the league with a +54.5 production premium. Fast-forward to this year, and the rookie Herbert elevated the entire offense around him, while displaying a strong rapport with Ekeler.
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While his overall output dipped slightly (he scored 16.5 fantasy points per game in 2020, compared to 19.3 in 2019), Ekeler’s quality of touches improved significantly. The Chargers were able to use Ekeler as a true receiver, sometimes even splitting him out in the slot, which led to a route percentage of 59.9% (6th among all RBs). The team also opted to go with a more balanced approach with Herbert, running the ball an average of 29.1 times per game (compared to 22.9 per game in 2019). This equated to more touches for Ekeler, as well as higher quality receptions to boost his PPR floor. This will only improve with Herbert entering year two as a more refined and experienced starting quarterback. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Addition by Subtraction: No More Anthony Lynn
Arguably just as beneficial to the Chargers offense as the continued development of Herbert, the mere fact that Anthony Lynn is no longer around is an absolutely massive improvement to the outlook of anyone in the Chargers organization, especially Ekeler. Lynn’s mind-boggling ineptitude regarding all facets of the game of football hamstrung the Chargers 2020 season, leading to the coach’s firing after the season.
One of the most maddening trends of Lynn’s 2020 coaching job, and there were plenty to choose from, was the coach’s absolute refusal to utilize Ekeler in the red zone and in goal line formations. It’s actually amazing, and a testament to just how productive he is as a receiver, that Ekeler has been able to put up the numbers he has despite seeing next to none of the goal line work. After seeing six goal line carries in 16 games in 2019, Ekeler received just a single goal line opportunity this year, while Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley combined for nine. His 27 red zone touches in ten games in 2020 were actually the exact same amount he received in the full 16 games of the 2019 season.
This can be nearly directly attributed to Herbert’s elevating of the entire Chargers offense, resulting in them simply getting the red zone more often, only for Lynn to continue his insane usage (or lack thereof) of Ekeler. Herbert raised the Chargers red zone scoring percentage from 52.8% in 2019 all the way up to 57.1% in 2020, and Lynn’s departure will only help that efficiency. One can only hope that new head coach Brandon Staley can find a way to get the ball in the hands of his workhorse near paydirt, something Anthony Lynn seemed literally incapable of doing.
What’s the Catch? Ekeler’s Updated Outlook
While the hamstring injury obviously raised some concerns, it is widely expected that Austin Ekeler comes into 2021 fully healthy and playing with no restrictions. If this is true and we are getting Ekeler at 100%, with even better developed chemistry with an experienced Herbert, then he could return to the elite RB1 conversation. This is especially true if Ekeler is able to remain as involved in the passing game as he was when last healthy.
In Week 12 last year against Buffalo, Ekeler’s first game back from injured reserve, he immediately slid in and saw 16 targets from Herbert, which he turned into 11 receptions and 129 yards. The team has also publicly said they want to get Ekeler even more involved in the slot and often lining up as a receiver, showing their trust in his legitimate receiver-like skill set as one of Herbert’s most-trusted weapons. Mix this in with the potential for added goal line work and Ekeler could still take a jump from his 2019 numbers that saw him as the overall RB4. When it comes to fantasy football (especially PPR leagues), running backs that get work in the passing game and at the goal line are as good as gold. Ekeler’s prowess in the receiving game is absolutely elite, and he deserves to be in the conversation of guys like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara of the best dual-threat weapons in football.
While all the shiny new rookies shoot up draft boards this offseason, don’t forget about Ekeler, who possesses a ceiling (and floor thanks to his receiving work) that few players in fantasy can replicate. He is absolutely an elite RB1 in PPR leagues, and anyone who says they can name nine better fantasy backs than Austin Ekeler should be entered into the conclusion protocol.
