Not A Hot Take: Austin Ekeler Is A Top-3 Fantasy RB Value In 2020
There is nobody that’s been more disrespected this season than Austin Ekeler. After finishing as the RB4 overall, he’s being drafted as late RB12, a borderline RB1. As a former undrafted player, Ekeler is used to playing with a chip on his shoulder.
The addition of Joshua Kelley in the 2020 NFL Draft and departure of Philip Rivers has contributed to Ekeler’s fade. However, I have him finishing as a top-three running back AGAIN. If you’re in the middle of the first round, here’s your RB1.
Waiting For An Opportunity
Ekeler exploded on to the scene whilst Melvin Gordon held out. He averaged 14 carries a game and six receptions, going for 490 total yards and six touchdowns. Over these four weeks, he had only five fewer fantasy points than the fantasy demigod that is Christian McCaffrey.
See Austin Ekeler Value In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
This is not all that surprising as in 2018 as the clear RB2 behind Gordon, Ekeler was RB14 over the first seven weeks. He’s a PPR monster that is a weapon out of the backfield, in the mold of McCaffrey himself. He is also a home-run threat using his deceptive speed to out-pace defensive-backs and make linebackers miss in the second level.
He also averaged over four yards per carry in the same offense that Melvin Gordon, the perceived better runner, averaged less than four yards in. In the same games, in the same offense, with the same offensive line. The Chargers decision to move on from Gordon was correct considering they had a better runner and receiver to replace him.
A Swiss Army Knife At Running Back
Every snap from #Chargers RB Austin Ekeler lined up as a receiver. No, I did not omit incompletions. That's just how good he is.
Check the full thread for every play.
Because these snaps = Chef's kiss. pic.twitter.com/zn0noEA3ix
— Tyler Schoon (@tylerjschoon) August 20, 2020
The Chargers running back had over 100 snaps lined up outside and he was brilliant out there. The addition of Joshua Kelley is not going to hurt Ekeler’s receiving production as he is clearly one of the best receivers in an offense that features Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams. Even when Anthony Lynn and Ken Whisenhunt want to get one of their other backs on the field, Ekeler can slide into the slot.
A case could be made for Ekeler to be considered the absolute focal point of the Chargers offense instead of Keenan Allen, one of the best receivers in the league. When Gordon returned, Ekeler averaged six carries a game and five receptions per outing. Clearly the Chargers wanted to get as many top-tier players on the field at the same time so both had near-identical snap shares from Week 5 on.
However, when Gordon was out, the Chargers back up Justin Jackson, who is a part of why people are fading Ekeler, had 24 total touches. That’s barely more than what Ekeler averaged a game in the same timeframe. Don’t worry about Los Angeles’ other running backs next season. Gordon and Ekeler were both too good to not split time, but with the former Wisconsin Badger now in Denver, there’s nobody to challenge Ekeler. This is not a running back committee. Ekeler is the top dog.
But Rivers Is Gone?
Philip Rivers showed his age last season. Mike Williams bailed him out time and time again. Keenan Allen had to get nearly five yards of separation to get the ball. Whilst Rivers fed Ekeler the ball, like how he fed Gordon in previous years, this more due to scheme than the quarterback’s decision making. If it was up to Rivers, he probably would have taken shots to Mike Williams all game long.
Tyrod Taylor has experience throwing to his backs. Tyrod targeted backs at a higher rate between 2016 and 2017 than Rivers himself. There will be no fear of Ekeler losing out on targets between scheme and quarterback.
The AFC West is also one of the most explosive divisions in the NFL. While the Chargers may not throw as much as they did under Rivers, who went for nearly 600 attempts this season, the lowest amount of passing attempts in their division was 504. Shootouts will happen, and when you have one of the best receiving backs in the game, he’ll get targets.
With Gordon playing for a division rival now, there is enough target and carry share to allow Ekeler to increase his workload both through the air and on the ground. A piece of Gordon’s 44-percent share of carries can help offset any potential loss of targets. However, ten percent of the team’s targets went to Gordon. Ekeler can and should inherit some whilst the rest is distributed to the rest of the offense.
2020 Outlook
Austin Ekeler is a great value in 2020 fantasy drafts. He probably won’t average 20-plus touches per game all things considered. He doesn’t need to be fed the ball to be the RB3 overall. Targets are 2.74 times more valuable than a carry, according to ProFootball Focus. He had only 14 touches per game in 2019, yet finished as RB3 overall in PPR.
Six to seven receptions per game, paired with a dozen carries is feasible for the young running back. Ekeler could finish the year with less than 300 total touches, but due to his prowess as a receiver, he will dominate for fantasy football owners.
Conservative projections:
- 12 carries per game, with another ten split between Kelley and Jackson, at his 2019 average of 4.2 yards
- 6.5 receptions per game, a marginal increase due to the departure of Gordon, averaging 10.5 yards per reception
- 1,989 total yards from scrimmage
- Ekeler has always had a nose for the end-zone, getting five-plus in each season. Currently projecting seven total due to a less efficient offense
- Overall: 336 fantasy points in PPR (RB2 in 2019) / 231 in non-PPR (RB6) / 283 in half-PPR (RB5)
I always go with conservative projections, projected floors as such. If Ekeler was utilized on the ground like how Gordon was, he could challenge for an RB2 finish in any scoring format. The only reason why I’m projecting him as only a top-three running-back is due to how ungodly Saquon and McCaffrey are.
Aggressive projections:
- 15 carries per game for 4.5 yards-per-carry
- Seven receptions per game at 10.5 yards on average
- Ten-plus touchdowns for the season
- Overall: 390.4 points in PPR (RB2 in every format for 2019)
The next player to join McCaffrey and Barkley in the top tier is going as late as RB12. Whilst I recommend you snap him up, you could get him on the turn with your second pick. He shocked fantasy football twitter last year, and he’ll do it again this year.
