Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook: Touchdown Regression Will Bring Him Back To Earth
The only Aaron talked about in Green Bay the last 10 years has been Aaron Rodgers. However, last season Aaron Jones made a name for himself after leading the league in total touchdowns. He did it every which way possible too. Goal line TD’s, crazy stupid receptions, and breaking off long runs. Many fans and fantasy football gamers are wondering what he will do for an encore. Expectations are higher than they’ve ever been for Jones, who is currently being drafted as the RB10 in PPR formats. Before we go crowning him the TD king of 2020 though, we need to pump the brakes and take a look at how his season will go.
See Where Aaron Jones Lands In Our 2020 Rankings!
Goal Line Efficiency
Jones finished the season as the third highest scoring RB in the league at 19.7 points per game. Inconsistency throughout the season was found as Jones had monster weeks followed by So-So weeks. He was able to capitalize on 13 attempts inside the five-yard line. He was able to score on eight of those, good for seventh in percentage of RB’s with at least 10 attempts inside the five-yard line. When we look at the stats further, as he moves away from the goal line to the 10-yard line, and 20-yard line, Jones’ attempts goes down relative to other RB’s at the top of the list.
Workload
The Packers went out and drafted AJ Dillon in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. At 6’0, 247-pounds, it is expected that Dillon will get some of that goal line work that Jones relied on. Jones ranked 30th in points per opportunity, which again a bulk of that was at the goal line. With Dillon taking that goal line work away, there should be a significant drop in touchdowns and opportunities. According to playerprofiler.com, Jones ranked 35th in the number of defenders faced in the box. The Green Bay receiving group was already thin before Devin Funchess opted out last week. With Davante Adams as the only threat in the passing game, you can expect that more defenders will be in the box, especially in the red zone. This will hinder Jones productivity even more.
Consistency
2019 showed Aaron Jones be great and at times be not so great. What can be misleading is the fact that almost half of his touchdowns came in two games. Against the Cowboys he had four TD’s and three against the Panthers. That’s nearly half of his rushing total for the year. Surprisingly, Jones only eclipsed 20 rushing attempts three times during the season. While he remains an elusive pass catching threat, it is clear he will be used more in early downs to spread the field.
Shift in philosophy
With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers have always been a pass first offense. However last year was the first year they weren’t near the bottom in terms of rushing plays vs passing plays. They were also near the top in time of possession. They controlled games, which gave them the luxury to use Jones often. If that’s the case for 2020, AJ Dillon and Jamal Williams should both expect to see some carries due to the increased run plays called. Yes, that would call for more of a running back committee approach.
In his first year as head coach, Matt LeFleur proved that a more balanced team can win games and make a deep run I the playoffs. What does this mean for Jones’ fantasy value? He still has an opportunity to get touches in an offense that lacks multiple deep ball threats. However, with touchdown regression a near certainty, don’t expect another top-10 finish from Aaron Jones.
