With fantasy football analysis constantly becoming sharper and more plentiful, I wanted to look at wide receiver fantasy production from a new angle. In my last piece at Yardsper I discussed why vacated targets are a red herring when trying to predict wide receiver production in the upcoming season. Now, let’s look at a metric that you’ve probably never heard of – but may offer some useful insight.
Market Share of Wide Receiver Fantasy Points
Market share of wide receiver fantasy points means the percent of every team’s wide receiver position group total fantasy points that each player contributed. For instance, Michael Thomas delivered a sample-best 68.8-percent market share of the New Orleans Saints’ 2019 wide receiver fantasy points. For reference, the sample is data from 2016 – 2019. This stat demonstrates how important each wide receiver was to his position group’s total fantasy output each season. What’s interesting though, is that a wide receiver’s market share (MS) in their previous season is correlated to their MS in the current season. Take a look at the graph below:
On the Y-axis, we have previous season MS. On the X-axis, we have current season MS. Let’s revisit Michael Thomas’ historic 2019 MS. His 2018/2019 seasons are that dot all alone way out to the right. His 2018 MS, as we can read on the Y-axis, is 52.6-percent, and his 2019 MS, as we can read on the X-axis, is 68.8-percent. As you can see by the trendline, there is a clear positive correlation between n-1 and n MS. What’s more, the regression yielded an R^2 value of .33 and a very small P-value, telling us this relationship is statistically significant.
Sample for the above graph includes wide receivers that stayed with the same team year-over-year and generated at least 10% of their position group’s fantasy production in the n-1 season. This removes players whose previous season market share is irrelevant because they joined a new team, as well as players that play non-fantasy relevant roles for their teams, i.e. Andre Holmes in 2015-2016 for the Raiders. Caveats accounted for; we have 267 data points included in our sample.
Why Market Share Matters
The best way to use MS of fantasy points is to target wide receivers with high MS on teams that you project to generate more passing offense in 2020. The Baltimore Ravens are a great example. Marquise Brown was 14th in the league last season in MS of wide receiver fantasy points as a rookie playing in only 14 games. Although the Ravens posted the 5th smallest wide receiver position group point total in the sample, Brown dominated market share. The 2017 Bills posted the lowest point total of the sample, but bounced back in 2018 with a 37% increase in wide receiver points. Point being, the Ravens wide receiver point total should regress towards the mean, which would be positive, and Brown is a good bet to maintain his MS control.
If the Ravens experience the same growth the 2017 Bills did and Brown repeats his 2019 MS, he would score 200 fantasy points in 2020. That finish would have landed him a WR26 finish in 2019. Meanwhile, his dynasty ADP sits at WR32 per dynastyleaguefootball.com. At just 23 years old, that’s a tremendous bargain.
Related | Vacated Targets: Why They Don’t Matter
On the flip side, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both posted monster seasons, buoyed by Tampa Bay’s league leading 742.7 WR fantasy points. While both players finished above Marquise Brown handedly, neither managed Brown’s 40.8% MS (37.2% and 31.3%, respectively). With the prospect of back to back first place finishes unlikely, at least one, if not both, players face an uphill climb to a repeat performance in 2020. Since Mike Evans’ market share was 6-percent below Godwin’s, the MS metric demonstrates we should be fading Evans for 2020. Of course, there are many other factors that will influence every player’s 2020 fantasy production, so don’t go selling Evans for a penny on the dollar.
However, this stat can be useful for identifying possible regression candidates and help you maximize value on your team. The table above ranks the top-24 WRs in 2019 by MS of fantasy points. Anyone stick out in particular? Let us know on twitter @YardsPer and @Dynasty_Complex!
