Eric Ebron 2020 Fantasy Football Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Eric Ebron is being priced as a low-end TE2, despite being one of the most electric players at the tight-end position and being teammates with a bonafide Hall-of-Famer. Fantasy football players are fading the Steelers’ offense because of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow, and the presence of fellow tight end Vance McDonald.
See Where Eric Ebron Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Rankings!
The former 10th overall pick has teased us over the years with some promising years, such as his monster season in 2018, catching 13 touchdowns and being targeted over 100 times. Entering the Steelers’ tight end-friendly offense is going to boost his value.
Big Ben Is Good For Tight-Ends
Roethlisberger made McDonald into a TE1 back in 2018—the same guy whose career-high in receptions prior was 30 and had never had more than four touchdowns.
Roethlisberger has also made other tight ends such as Jesse James (2017) and Heath Miller (2015) produce TE2 numbers.
Take a look at Roethlisberger’s completion percentage by target depth when targeting tight ends. When targeting his big guys, he’s extremely accurate and well above league-average. Even if his arm falls off marginally, he will still be above league average.
Over Roethlisberger’s last three seasons with the Steelers, before his injury, the tight end room averaged a 19-percent target share. This was with mid-tier guys like James and McDonald competing against wide receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and running back Le’Veon Bell.
Whilst there may be more depth this year, there are plenty of targets up for grabs.
Ebron Is So Damn Talented
Ebron’s 2018 season isn’t even his ceiling. He’s that talented. In his last two seasons, he has posted an 8-percent and a 9-percent drop rate. His hands can be an issue, but they can also be outrageously good, making spectacular catches all over the field. Ebron can make catches when he has two defenders draped over him.
He is the definition of a vertical threat. His average depth of target (aDOT) is the same as legitimate deep threats like Sammy Watkins.
In the clip below, Jackson Krueger of Jackson Krueger Sports Productions breaks down his film best.
As you saw in the graph earlier, Roethlisberger is great at completing passes downfield, where Ebron excels. The 27-year-old will easily average 12 yards per reception when you factor in that he is good for getting at least three yards after the catch on average. There is a strong chance that he improves on his career-high and breaks into 13-plus yards per reception.
Ebron’s commitment to block on run plays has been an issue, but with McDonald, that’s not much of a concern. Last season, he ran a route on 97-percent of his plays. He also had 52 targets over 202 routes ran, despite being limited by an ankle injury and missing five games. McDonald had only three more targets despite running close to double the number of routes. Ebron will be a focal point of any offense due to his speed and explosiveness.
Ebron Is An Elite Red Zone Threat
With his size, speed, and explosiveness, you would expect Ebron to dominate in the red zone, and he does. Touchdowns are so important for tight ends, as it makes up for their lack of overall volume in the passing game. In 2018, Ebron had 13 touchdowns with 10 of them coming from inside the 20-yard line.
In fact, every ball Ebron caught in the red zone resulted in a touchdown.
He’s a mismatch for most NFL defenses. He’s too big for a safety, and too fast for a linebacker. Unless a top-tier linebacker is lined up against him every play, he will burn defenses for big gains. He knows how to use his 4.6-speed, and is savvy route-runner.
The Steelers also lack a go-to red-zone threat outside of Smith-Schuster. Ebron gives them that, and more. When defenses are stretched out covering Pittsburgh’s receivers, Ebron can work the middle with crossing routes and use his body to box out defenders. The former Indianapolis Colt will get plenty of chances to shine, as the Steelers had a tight end on the field for passing plays 96-percent of the time. Back in 2018, within the red-zone, Pittsburgh went into 11 personnel on every pass play.
Ebron is not just a tight-end, he can also be a big slot. Whilst this is Smith-Schuster’s main position, whenever he moves to the outside, expect Ebron to replace him instead of wide receivers James Washington, Chase Claypool, or Diontae Johnson. There are few slot corners that can match his size and speed.
2020 Projections
As Pittsburgh’s tight-end room has averaged 19-percent of the targets, I’ll reallocate the same amount this season.
Roethlisberger had a career-high in attempts in 2018. Over his last three healthy seasons, he averaged 38.7 attempts per game. Assuming the Steelers want to alleviate the pressure on his arm, let’s project Roethlisberger to throw the ball on average 36 times a game.
With these figures in mind, this equates to 576 attempts from Roethlisberger and 109 targets to the tight end corps.
Although McDonald is in the fold, he will still get some targets. This situation is reminiscent of 2017, when McDonald served behind James. Thus, an average of one to two targets a game is reasonable. He has talent, but he’s not on the same level as Ebron.
At 1.5 targets per game for McDonald, this leaves room for 85 to head Ebron’s way. Considering he’s made that mark three times in his career, it’s not out of the question.
As such an electric receiver, Ebron should continue with his aDOT of 9.5 yards. His YAC ability is underrated and he’s great at racking up yards. Another season of 12-plus yards per reception is attainable playing with Roethlisberger.
Focus drops are an issue, but with a higher quality of passes from a Hall-of-Fame arm and less defensive attention, catching 65-percent of his targets is possible for the former first-rounder.
- 81 targets at 65-percent catch rate = 53 catches
- 53 catches at 12 YPR = 636 yards
As a red zone threat, Ebron has a career-average of .33 TD’s per game. The former Colt should easily clear this mark in 2020.
- .33 touchdowns per game in 16 games = 5 touchdowns
All of this combined gives Ebron 146.6 fantasy points in PPR leagues—good for TE10 last season. As a comparison, he had 222 points in 2018. As a conservative projection, Ebron finishes the year as a TE1.
With a current fantasy ADP placing him as low-end TE2 (between TE18-TE24), Eric Ebron is an absolute steal in 2020. Let your league-mates fade Roethlisberger and Ebron. Take the tight end as an early TE2, and by mid-season, you will have a TE1 that you can keep or trade. Getting a player like Ebron at his floor is a bargain, especially since he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.
