D’Andre Swift: Ready To Take Over The Lions Backfield?
Throughout most of the 2019 season, D’Andre Swift of the Georgia Bulldogs was seen as the consensus first overall selection in dynasty formats for the upcoming 2020 draft. After Clyde Edwards-Helaire went 32nd overall and Jonathan Taylor was drafted to play behind the best offensive line in the NFL, Swift took a tumble. Looking at ffcalulator’s ADP from May 15th to August 1st, we see that Swift is currently going at the 1.05 behind Edwards-Helaire, Taylor, Baltimore’s J.K. Dobbins, and Denver’s Jerry Jeudy.
Related | D’Andre Swift: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Is the drop due to his landing spot? His perceived committee in Detroit? This article will examine why Swift can and will be the lead back for fantasy purposes in Detroit in 2020.
BACKFIELD HISTORY
I’m passionate about this backfield as a Lions fan, and I was confused as to why the Lions selected D’Andre Swift at 35 overall. I thought we had other needs, but the rest of the draft shook out to where I think the Swift pick is my favorite of the bunch.
Sure, Kerryon Johnson was HC Matt Patricia’s first skill player selected in his inaugural season in 2018. Johnson was coming being the SEC offensive player of the year. That’s a big deal, folks. Kerryon was seen as the savior for a backfield that went 70 games without cracking 100 yards rushing by a single player. Johnson did just that in just his third NFL game. The savior had arrived.
Or so we thought. Kerryon flashed in major ways in 2018, posting notable rushing efforts of 101, 70, 158, and 87 yards. Johnson’s season was ended prematurely, as he suffered an injury that limited him to just ten games. In those ten games, Johnson averaged 5.4 yards a carry and caught 32 passes for 213 yards. The Lions had their guy. Or so we thought.
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Fast-forward to 2019, and the Johnson hype was palpable. The Lions cut long-time receiving back Theo Riddick, and the only challenge to the Detroit backfield was C.J. Anderson, a short-yardage back at that stage of his career. Johnson’s ADP was 23rd overall (per ffcalculator) in PPR 1QB startups. Johnson was a pillar for your dynasty roster. And then the injuries continued. Johnson was limited to the first seven games of 2019 before heading to IR with the designation to return, which he did in weeks 16 and 17. Johnson saw his yards per carry drop down to 3.57 and only ten receptions in his nine contests.
Digging further into Kerryon Johnson’s injury history, we find that Johnson hasn’t finished a season since his junior year of high school without suffering a substantial injury. Johnson dealt with mostly shoulder problems, with some ankle issues worked in have caused Johnson to miss 14 of a possible 32 NFL games in his career. Maybe the Lions didn’t have their guy after all.
ENTER SWIFT
Reports have surfaced that GM Bob Quinn and HC Matt Patricia gave Lions OC Darrell Bevell his choice of players at 35 and hand-selected Swift. Swift was a monster at Georgia despite playing behind Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. Swift posted modest numbers at the college level, but what stood out the most was his versatility and capability in the passing game. Sure, Swift didn’t catch 80 passes, but Georgia’s offense is a run-heavy attack that features multiple backs, tiring out a defense. In the last 25 seasons of Georgia football, RBs have only ever eclipsed 30 receptions three times. Knowshon Moreno in 2008, Todd Gurley in 2013, and Swift in 2018. It’s safe to say that Swift is one of Georgia’s most prolific pass catchers in their storied history.
Since 1995 (25 seasons), only 3 times has a Georgia RB hit 30+ receptions:
Knowshon Moreno (2008) – 33/392/2
Todd Gurley (2013) – 37/441/6
D'Andre Swift (2018) – 32/297/3The last Georgia RB to do it before that:
Terrell Davis (1994) – 31/330/0
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 27, 2020
Darrell Bevell’s rushing offenses since 2011 have produced an average stat line of 467 attempts 2052 yards and 12 TDs while having 40 targets for the lead RB. If Swift can handle just a 40% workload to Johnson’s 50% on the ground, Swift would have 187 attempts. Using his college stats and applying some regression to NFL play and giving Swift a modest 4 yards per carry, he would be at 748 yards on the ground. Factor in the 40 targets (although I expect more, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls were not known for their pass-catching) and subsequent receiving yardage, and Swift looks to have solid RB2 potential.
See Where D’Andre Swift Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Football Rankings!
Swift has to deal with the coronavirus offseason before he can overcome Kerryon Johnson as the lead back in Detroit. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later. Both Johnson and Swift excel as pass blockers, but Swift possesses the ability to play as a slot WR at times, something Johnson isn’t as good at. Swift should see a bunch of work in the passing game as a legitimate option in Matthew Stafford’s progression, not just a check down.
Johnson has to stay healthy, too. Both Swift and Johnson are above average runners between the tackles, but should Johnson miss any time (history says he will), Swift will he called on to lead that backfield with no other threats to his workload.
COMPARISON BACKFIELD
A comparison I think that is apt for this situation is the New Orleans Saints backfield in 2017, which featured a rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Ingram was a more than capable pass-catcher, much like Johnson. Kamara brought more, and he was used as a dynamic playmaker in the passing game catching 81 passes while running the ball 120 times for 728 yards. Ingram ran the ball 230 times that same season, but Kamara finished with more fantasy points in that season. Both backs saw significant playing time, and both thrived off of the strengths of the other.
Kerryon Johnson is not Mark Ingram, and D’Andre Swift is not Alvin Kamara… yet. Swift is the superior talent to Johnson and may eat more into the rushing share than Kamara did to Ingram’s. If Kerryon goes down with an injury, I would expect D’Andre Swift to see usage similar in the Lions backfield to Kamara without Ingram. I don’t wish harm on any player, but Johnson hasn’t proved to be reliable. And even with Johnson on the field, there is a path for D’Andre Swift to finish as a top 15 RB.
