Boston Scott: A Late-Round Fantasy Football Steal In 2020?
To be able to forgo mediocre options at the running back position in the early rounds of drafts to instead pivot and draft top tier players at other positions only makes sense. As draft strategies such as zero and modified running back become more widely utilized in fantasy leagues, it has become increasingly important to recognize running back value in the later rounds.
There have been many discussions regarding the Eagles’ backfield this off-season as concerns of Mile Sanders’ potential workload have plagued potential fantasy football owners. As many deliberate the current second round value of Sanders, my eye has become increasingly fixed on his backfield running mate Boston Scott.
WHY BOSTON SCOTT WILL OUTPRODUCE HIS Fantasy Football ADP In 2020
Boston Scott is going to vastly out produce is ADP this year. As of today, Scott’s ADP in PPR formats is appropriately priced at 122.5. He is going in the same round as Duke Johnson, Damien Harris, and a vast number of other players who need particular events to unfold in order to outproduce their ADP’s by a significant margin.
Related | Miles Sanders: Is He Overrated?
Running backs going in that range in 2019 were Justice Hill (120.7), Alexander Mattison (127.3), and Peyton Barber (131.3). None of those backs were notably productive to the point which they outproduced their respective ADP’s. They were acquired at their floors and remained there for the entirety of the season.
For the intended purposes of this article I will be using weeks 14-17 of the regular 2019 season for my statistical reference. During those four weeks is when Scott earned a significant enough snap share. The sample size was large and consistent enough to project his utilization intended by the coaching staff.
See Where Boston Scott Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Football Rankings!
In the final four weeks of the 2019 season alone, Scott produced 82 PPR fantasy points. Throughout an entire season, neither Justice Hill (49.5 fantasy points) nor Alexander Mattison (68.4 fantasy points) outproduced Boston Scott. Over 16 weeks, Barber (116.5 fantasy points) outproduced Scott’s four-week production by only 30 percent.
Once again, Scott finds himself among a large group of players who are either high value handcuffs or unproven rookies. Scott has a proven role and production going into the 2020 season whereas the greater majority of his positional cohorts do not.
BOSTON SCOTT’S 2019 UTILIZATION
In 2020, both Jordan Howard and Darren Sproles were injured which led to the eventual breakout of Miles Sanders and the emergence of Boston Scott. Through weeks 14-17 Scott averaged 47.25 percent of the snaps. With those snaps, he received 38 carries for 151 yards and caught 23-of-25 targets for 199 yards and 4 TD’s.
On top of that, he boasted a plus 31.2 production premium (measures a players productivity across league-average situations. Positive values indicate the player is more productive than the average full -time player) grading him out at 6th in the league.
Scott’s on field utilization snap splits were as follows:
Half back: 118 snaps
Slot: 27 snaps
Wide: 5 snaps
Per Player Profiler, Scott’s Week 14-17 game splits in full point PPR leagues were as follows:
In week 17 at the New York Giants, Miles Sanders left with an injury which resulted in Scott being able to showcase his ability as a reliable running back when given a larger share of touches. He totaled 138 yards on 19 carries and four receptions earning 35.8 fantasy points. That point total placed him as the fantasy running back two for the week. He was also named NFC Offensive Player of the Week.
BOSTON SCOTT CAN CARRY THE ROCK
Boston Scott’s week 17 production was not a fluke. Standing at 5-6 and 203 pounds, Scott profiles as smaller Clyde Edwards-Helaire type of running back. During his final year at Louisiana Tech, he played 13 games, ran the ball on 183 attempts gaining 1047 yards and eight TD’s. He also received 20 receptions for 181 receiving yards and one TD. The fact that he carried the ball under 200 times and broke 1000 yards is an impressive feat in itself.
During the 2019 season Scotts’ true yards per carry averaged out at 3.9 yards per carry (this measure puts a premium on consistency by discounting runs longer than 10 yards). When running against seven defenders in the box (either a base 4-3 or 3-4 defensive front), Scott ranked 8th in the league at the 32.8 percentile. Should Miles Sanders go down again, I do not think Doug Pederson would be hesitant in once again giving Scott a significant workload.
BOSTON SCOTT IN THE DARREN SPROLES ROLE
In 2017, Boston Scott was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the sixth round. A year later he was signed by the Eagles from the Saints practice squad. Darren Sproles was efficiently utilized by the Saints before he moved onto the Eagles where he played out the twilight of his career. With the Eagles, he had one fully healthy season in 2016 where he ran the ball on 94 attempts for 438 yards and caught 52-of-71 passes for 427 yards.
Scott will be taking over the Darren Sproles role in the Eagles offense going forward. Scott lined up all over the field. Per PFF, Scotts’ 2019 utilization mirrors that of Sproles 2016 season. Even the area of the field where they had the majority of their receptions were identical. In 2016, 50-of-52 of Sproles receptions were behind the line of scrimmage or within 10 yards beyond it. In 2019, all of Scott’s receptions were in that same area. Sproles only received two targets beyond 10 yards and Scott only received one target. The situational comparison is nearly perfectly linear.
CONCLUSION
Coming out of the 2020 Draft, the Eagles did not select a single running back. One would only presume that Doug Pederson is more than comfortable with his current running back group based on their performances in 2019. As is Pederson tradition, he also commented on how he wants to get a second and even third back involved to help Sanders. Our very own Joel Sigrest at Yards Per Fantasy writes in his article how the Eagles love a run-heavy offense projecting their total team carry count at 440 rushing attempts in 2020.
Other than Jalen Raegor, the Eagles added no other real talent at the wide receiver position. When taking that into consideration, it is easy to see Scott’s snaps by position sustaining themselves into the 2020 season.
Meanwhile, Scott’s ADP is going completely undervalued. Without there being any preseason games this August, it might be one of the few off seasons we will not see drastic fluctuations in player ADP’s going into the regular season. Should his ADP remain stable and if no other notable running backs are added, be sure to draft him in the later rounds as he’ll prove to be a sure fire RB2 in half and full point PPR leagues this year.
