Despite finishing the year at his absolute floor of RB27 in 2019 and not even cracking his ceiling at RB11 in 2018, Tarik Cohen is sitting between RB30 and RB35 as one of the biggest fantasy sleeper values for 2020. Whilst, not a sure bet to finish as RB1, the undersized receiving back will be a strong RB2 next year and if you can pick him up as a flex, all the better.
The Bears’ WR3
On a “poor year”, Cohen had the second-highest number of targets on the Bears’ roster, good for the third highest number amongst running-backs. The 24-year-old could stake a claim to being the Bears’ WR2, finishing in the top three in targets with Chicago over the last three years, taking second-place twice. The year he was third, he missed out by two targets but had the highest number of receptions. With few additions to the Bears’ receiving corps, receiving volume will be no issue.
He was 24th in the league in receptions last season, jumping up eight places from 32nd in 2018, despite dropping an unfortunate nine balls. Cohen’s abysmal drop rate in 2019 is not going to repeat itself. With a four-percent drop-rate, Cohen would have had 85 receptions, the same as George Kittle, who was 18th in the league in receptions. On a similar volume in 2018, the same runningback only had one drop.
David Montgomery is not a threat to Cohen’s volume. Whilst he will get his share of the targets, he is nowhere near as explosive as Cohen is out of the backfield. With a 4.42-forty, the receiving back can burn nearly any linebacker on him, and has done so over his first three years in the league. Cohen is a human joystick, which helped him make the Pro Bowl and the All-Pro First Team as a punt returner. When he’s in space, he’s a lethal weapon.
How Valuable Is He?
Since 2000, only four running backs have rushed less than 100 times, but more than 70, and had more than 90 targets in a season. Overall, this has only happened six times, and two of those seasons belong to Mr. Cohen himself. Excluding Cohen’s own seasons, those runningbacks average rank in PPR was 10.25, a low-end RB1. The worst finish out of the six seasons was Cohen’s 2019 campaign where he averaged a measly 5.8 yards-per-reception and placed as RB27 in PPR leagues.
If you extend it to more than 70 receptions rather than targets, there are 12 seasons that fit the criteria. Cohen is a special player. The value of a receiving back is immense, similar to a quarterback with a rushing floor. Cohen showed in 2018 that he can do more than just catch check downs. Despite this, he caught the ball 2.6 yards further downfield in 2018 than he did last year. With Trubisky’s decision making shrinking the playbook, Nagy resorted to screens and dump-offs. Trubisky couldn’t even execute those to a decent standard. Would you trust him to throw a wheel route or make the right read on a half-back option route?
Even with poor quarterback play, Cohen would have been a low-end RB2 in 14-team leagues in PPR. With a ceiling of a lower-end RB1 and a floor of a low-end RB2, Cohen’s current ADP is shocking. Due to poor/slow decision making by Trubisky, Cohen actually lost 29 yards on dump-offs. Whilst the points from receptions minimized the damage of negative plays, these could have been easily been for a small gain. These plays ruined his yards-per-reception, losing him nearly a yard-per-reception.
See Where Tarik Cohen Lands In Our 2020 Running Back Rankings!
Another aspect of the Bears’ offense that tanked Cohen’s value was his average yards-before-catch. Cohen caught the ball 2.6 yards further downfield in 2018 than he did last year. Despite receiving more targets in the slot, Cohen was used primarily as a check-down option. Wasting a weapon like Cohen, who won’t get yards after contact due to his size, was a mistake.
Poor offensive line play made both Cohen and Montgomery inefficient, with Cohen averaging a yard less per carry than in previous years. A home-run threat, Cohen had the fifth-highest TFL rate on outside runs with 34-percent of his attempts going for zero yards or less. The Bears’ had the 23rd-best offensive line in the league according to Jacob Adams.
Marginally better-receiving luck and blocking would have helped Cohen easily challenge Melvin Gordon and Marlon Mack for a spot as an RB2. With a half-decent season, Cohen could outplay his ADP by up to 15 spots.
Improved Quarterback Play
Nick Foles is good for Tarik Cohen. He is more accurate and a better decision-maker than Trubisky. Opposing defenses were not scared of Trubisky’s arm. This hurt Cohen more than people would think. When defenses are terrified of being burnt downfield, space opens up underneath for receiving backs like Cohen to rack up yards. Against the Saints, whenever Cohen caught the ball, he was immediately surrounded by up to four Saints defenders. Trubisky was so late on screens that he was better off throwing the ball away. The Bears’ quarterback also missed Cohen on routine throws, rolling out of a clean pocket for seemingly no reason.
Nagy did not trust Trubisky as the season progressed. Foles is a guy Nagy knows from their time in Kansas City and Philadelphia, and Nagy even helped Foles rediscover his love for football. The shortened off-season will not be as big of a negative for Foles who has experience with this offense. Whilst he may not be the starter when the season begins, between his familiarity with Nagy and Trubisky’s ineptitude, Foles will claim the role within a few weeks.
Trubisky or Foles? Who Is Higher In Our Quarterback Rankings?
The main reason that Foles is great for Cohen is how comfortable he is getting running backs involved in the passing game. Leonard Fournette’s two games with over ten targets were with Foles, averaging 8.75 targets per game whilst playing alongside the former SuperBowl MVP. Quicker and better decision making will get the ball out of Foles’ hands and into Cohen’s, allowing the human joystick to rack up yards.
Defenses will also have to respect Foles’ arm more if he wins the competition. If Trubisky wins the starting role outright, then he will have had to improve immensely. Either way, expect the Bears’ quarterback situation to be better than last season. If defenses are a step late rallying to tackle Cohen, he will make them pay.
2020 Projections
- 80 receptions (easily could have broken this mark with one less drop in 2019)
- 640 yards for eight yards-per-reception
- 70 rushes for 315 yards (4.5 yards-per-carry)
- One rushing TD and three receiving TDs
This would leave Cohen with around 200 fantasy points in PPR scoring leagues, good for RB19 in 2019. With his receiving ability, his production is closer to a WR with a rushing floor. For example, with his projected receiving alone he would have been WR41 in 2019. Getting a WR3 as your RB2 just makes sense in fantasy football. Also, who doesn’t love a player who embraces his shortcomings?
This tweet so stupid . Y’all act like i don’t know I’m short . https://t.co/HZGbUeKPHb
— Tarik Cohen (@TarikCohen) October 21, 2019
His current ADP values him as an RB3, which is his worst-case scenario floor. People have overreacted to his previous season, and the Bears’ offense will improve. If you are looking for an RB2 in redraft, then Cohen gives you high-end WR3 production at your second running back position. In an aerial attack offense with better quarterback play, Cohen could end the year as an RB1.
