BRESHAD PERRIMAN 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook
Look, I get it. For those of us that don’t advance to the playoff rounds of our fantasy leagues, we completely punch out for the rest of the season. We delete our fantasy apps, stop listening to podcasts, and my personal favorite, disable the alarm clock which alerts us of when waivers are opening for the week (That’s 2 a.m. for me).
But for those of you unfortunate souls who were busy licking your wounds obtained from yet another tumultuous season, Breshad Perriman was going off and you completely missed it.
His new home with the New York Jets, combined with the vacancy created in Robby Anderson’s departure, has once again afforded him another opportunity for success. His current ADP virtually makes him a free pick and an absurd value. By the end of this article, granted his ADP sustains, you’ll be making sure to grab him in all re-draft and best ball leagues going forward.
SEIZING THE MOMENT: WEEKS 14-17
Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost Mike Evans in week 13 and Chris Godwin in week 14 to season ending injuries which forced Breshad Perriman into a prominent offensive role where he wasted absolutely no time making the most of his opportunity.
Through those four weeks, Perriman caught 20-of-31 targets (7.75 targets per game) for 419 yards and five touchdowns. In addition, he averaged 21.8 yards per reception and 4.6 yards after the catch. Let that last sentence sink in.
Per Player Profiler, his weekly splits were as follows:
Week 14: 3-of-5 for 70 yards and 1 TD (16 fantasy points)
15: 5-of-6 for 133 yards and 3 TD’s (34.6 fantasy points)
16: 7-of-12 for 102 yards (17.2 fantasy points)
17: 5-of-8 for 134 yards and 1 TD (24.4 fantasy points)
During that span, Perriman put on a beautiful display which showcased his talent at winning contested catches, ball tracking, and catch radius. He also showed his prowess in beating different types of coverages such as man, press, and off coverage. His route tree included staples such as the go, post, comeback, and dig. He also incorporated crossing routes and slants where he consistently won off the line of scrimmage.
My personal favorite was this 24 yard touchdown catch in the back of the endzone against the Atlanta Falcons in week 17. It was essentially a Hail Mary and a catch where he showed exceptional body control, concentration, and physicality. It’s because of his performance in these four weeks that landed him another prime opportunity to play a featured role with the New York Jets.
PERRIMAN’S OUTLOOK WITH THE JETS
So here’s the rub, per PFF, Perriman has gone from a team where the quarterback, Jameis Winston, ranked first in attempts of passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield (99 attempts) to a team who’s quarterback, Sam Darnold, ranked 23rd with 51 deep pass attempts. The reason for that was poor offensive line play and a lack of complimentary weapons.
Overall, Sam Darnold dropped back to pass 485 times. That ranked 24th in the NFL last year. Per ProFootball Reference, Darnold averaged 5.7 completed air yards per completion and his completed air yards per pass attempt averaged at 3.5 yards.
The entire offensive line earned poor pass blocking grades from PFF which constantly allowed Darnold to be put under duress. The offensive line went into significant reconstruction during the off-season with addition of rookie Mekhi Becton at tackle and Connor McGovern at center who came over from the Broncos. Both additions will afford Darnold the time to take more deepshots to Perriman.
As for Perriman’s role in the offense, he will be filling the void left behind by Robby Anderson. Perriman is better than Anderson. The Jets receivers caught only 10 passes of 20 plus air yards and Anderson caught eight of those passes. Take an improved offensive line, a receiver who specializes in winning contested catches, and it’s a simple formula for success.
PERRIMAN’S ADP
Breshad Perriman has become a screaming value in 2020 fantasy football drafts. His current ADP in half point PPR scoring formats is pick 187. He’s going after players like N’Keal Harry, Devin Funchess, Hunter Renfrow, and Robby Anderson. In 12 team leagues there is no risk at all. The back end of the draft is reserved for high upside picks and Perriman meets all the criteria. If the Jets’ offense does improve, he’ll easily be a consistent season long contributor for your fantasy teams.
