It’s an understatement to say that the Indianapolis Colts backfield is intriguing. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and they added a very productive running back in Jonathan Taylor. Of course, they also have Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines, which adds to the running back depth. Let’s look at this intriguing backfield for the Colts and try to figure out who you should own in fantasy football this season.
The Fantasy Football Weapons in the Colts Backfield
Jonathan Taylor
The Colts drafted Taylor in the second round out of the University of Wisconsin. He’s listed at 5’10” 226 pounds with a speed score in the 99th percentile. Taylor’s been an extremely productive back for his entire three years in college. He averaged over 2,000 rushing yards each season and last year had career highs in total touchdowns and receiving production.
Jonathan Taylor: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Last season, Taylor ended with 320 carries, 2,003 rushing yards, and 26 total touchdowns. He also chipped in 26 catches for 252 receiving yards. In 2017 and 2018, he totaled 155 receiving yards, meaning he took almost a 100-yard jump in the receiving game. Seeing the uptick in receiving yards is promising for his pass-catching potential.
There was a Rotoballer update, where Keith Hernandez mentioned Taylor being a yard after contact monster. To summarize that update, Taylor had 3,921 yards after contact in his career, which was the most in college football. For reference, nearly 60% of Taylor’s 6,581 total yards came after contact in his career.
Colts Offensive Line
According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts offensive line ranked third overall and ranked second in run blocking. They also have one of the best, if not the best, run-blocking guard in Quenton Nelson. Last year, the Colts ranked fifth with 133.1 rushing yards per game. They made an effort to run the ball and adding Taylor to this backfield could mean they’ll continue with that trend.
Concerns
One concern would be Taylor’s college mileage since he racked up over 6,500 total yards. Taylor’s 6,174 career rushing yards ranks sixth all-time right in front of DeAngelo Williams and Royce Freeman. There were concerns with Melvin Gordon’s mileage when entering the NFL but he had 5,100 total yards in college. It’s to be determined whether the additional yards for Taylor will be an issue since we know Gordon’s been productive in the NFL.
2020 Outlook
Another concern would be the lack of pass-catching in college, but we’ll see what happens in the Colts offense with Philip Rivers at quarterback. On the Chargers, Rivers targeted his running backs often but this is a different offense and team. Taylor’s 32 NFFC ADP makes him the 17th running back drafted.
Initially, he’ll likely be sharing touches with Mack and Hines. However, there’s a path for Taylor to be productive with a great offensive line and team that commits to running the ball. If that theory holds up, then Taylor could definitely be a solid RB2 with low-end RB1 potential given the situation.
Marlon Mack
Last season, Marlon Mack ranked ninth in carries and 11th in rushing yards. Mack’s rushing yards sandwiched him in between Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones. He finished 2019 with 247 carries, 1,091 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns to go along with 14 catches and 82 receiving yards. Mack averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game that ranked 22nd at running back even with the lack of involvement in the passing game. When looking at game logs, he was actually pretty consistent last year. In seven games he finished top 15 or better and there were two additional weeks where he finished 22nd at running back.
Notable Metrics
Mack’s production premium ranked 58th, which indicates a lack of efficiency. However, his 62.9% opportunity share ranked 17th at running back, and we know opportunities are important. A couple other notable metrics for Mack were evaded tackles and yards created. Mack ranked 15th with 74 evaded tackles and 10th with 461 yards created amongst running backs.
So Mack made defenders miss and generated the 10th most yards beyond what his blockers provided for him. Even though the Colts have an elite offensive line, Mack’s still a skilled and tough running back that grinds out additional yards. For reference, Mack ranked in between Ezekiel Elliot and Josh Jacobs in terms of yards created.
2020 Outlook
The biggest knock for Mack would be the lack of passing game involvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s unable to catch passes. In his rookie year (2017), Mack caught 21 catches for 225 receiving yards but we’ve seen a gradual decrease in his receiving production. With Rivers at quarterback, it could mean an increase in passing volume which could take away running back opportunities. Mack’s 78 ADP makes him the 32nd running back drafted and he’s clearly a better value than rookie Jonathan Taylor. Expect Taylor and Mack to share touches for part or most of the season assuming health for both players.
Nyheim Hines
Nyheim Hines finished 2019 with 52 carries, 199 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. He also received 58 targets, 44 receptions, and 320 receiving yards. Hines’ 2019 production dropped across the board from his rookie year in 2018. With Andrew Luck’s retirement in August 2019, the Colts adjusted to their running game strengths. Although Jacoby Brissett was serviceable, he was clearly not as productive as Luck.
Notable Metrics
Hines ranked 70th with a 22.4% opportunity share and ranked 16th with 58 targets amongst running backs. That made him more of a bye week or injury replacement player since he averaged 6.6 fantasy points per game and ranked 56th at running back. He doesn’t break tackles, but he’s efficient with his touches. In terms of efficiency, Hines ranked 28th in production premium and 13th with 5.4 yards per touch. When comparing his 2018 and 2019 season, he ranked seventh with 81 targets and ranked 35th with 10.1 fantasy points per game in 2018. Overall there was a clear drop in production and he wasn’t fantasy relevant last year.
2020 Outlook
The Colts now have Philip Rivers at quarterback, and before the NFL draft, there was a path for production with Hines being a pass-catching running back. The theory for Hines production related to Rivers’ tendency to target running backs in the passing game hence Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. However, it’s now more difficult with the crowded running back room since Taylor and Mack figure to hog the touches. Hines’ 153 ADP makes him the 52nd running back drafted and he goes right in front of backup running backs like Chase Edmonds and A.J. Dillon.
2020 PRESEASON RANKINGS |QB| RB |WR | TE |
DYNASTY RANKINGS | QB | RB | WR | TE | 1QB ROOKIES | SF ROOKIES
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