Top Positive Regression Candidates for 2020
To define positive regression, we’re looking for players that underperformed in 2019 for various reasons. When identifying positive regression candidates, we’re looking at air yards, efficiency, opportunity, and production. This is the follow-up article to my “Top Efficiency Regression Candidates for 2020” that you can read here. Let’s dive in and find positive regression candidates for 2020.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
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Last season, Curtis Samuel received 105 targets, 54 receptions, 627 rushing yards, and six receiving touchdowns. He chipped in 19 carries, 130 rushing yards, and one touchdown. Samuel ranked ninth in air yards with 1,608 air yards sandwiched in between Mike Williams and DeAndre Hopkins. Amongst the receivers with more air yards, Samuel tied with Mike Evans and only behind Mike Williams in terms of average depth of target (aDOT). However, Evans and Williams both broke the 1,000-yard receiving mark.
The Panthers ranked second in pass players per game and Samuel’s 91% snap shared ranked 23rd at the position. According to Next Gen Stats, Samuel had a 30.5% share of the team’s target air yards, which “represents how much of a team’s deep yards does the player account for.” Samuel’s catch rate was 50.5%, but his true catch rate was 80.6% which indicates that his quarterback play contributed to the struggles in 2019.
Teddy Bridgewater, Samuel’s new quarterback, ranked fourth in deep ball completion percentage with 46.7%. It’s a small sample with Bridgewater since he only started five games last year. However, we could see more efficiency and productivity with all the air yards Samuel received. Samuel’s the 58th wide receiver off the board with a 171 NFFC ADP. He’s worth a flier at that price in the double-digit rounds.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s probably safe to throw out last season for JuJu Smith-Schuster. In 2019, he finished the season with 70 targets, 42 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Smith-Schuster only received seven or more targets in five games. In those five games, he caught 26 passes, 421 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. His receiving production in those five games amounted to 76% of his total receiving yards. The shaky quarterback play also contributed to his inconsistency after Ben Roethlisberger’s season-ending injury in week two.
Why positive regression?
He’s only a year removed from this 2018 line: 166 targets, 111 receptions, 1,426 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. In 2018, Roethlisberger threw for over 5,100 passing yards, so buy back into Smith-Schuster reproducing something close to his 2018 numbers. Roethlisberger averaged 320 passing yards per game in 2018. Any guesses on the Steelers passing yards per game in 2019? Last year, the Steelers averaged 186 passing yards per game. A healthy Roethlisberger raises the stock of the entire Steelers offense, especially Smith-Schuster.
Smith-Schuster’s the 15th wide receiver drafted with a 41 NFFC ADP, and he should be back in the WR1 conversation this season. The Steelers went from the pass heaviest team in 2018 to bottom three in 2019. All of his opportunity and productivity metrics were flipped on its head when you compare 2018 and 2019. Throw out 2019 and take the value of Smith-Schuster in 2020.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
In 2019, Leonard Fournette set career highs in total touches, rushing yards, catches, and receiving yards. However, he only scored three touchdowns total. Last year he ended with 1,152 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 76 receptions, and 522 receiving yards. If you’re wondering why he’s in the positive regression article, it’s because he will provide value at his current draft price and due for positive touchdown regression. Last season, Fournette ranked seventh in fantasy points using PPR scoring, but he’s the 14th running back drafted according to NFFC ADP.
Why positive regression?
Let’s look at Fournette’s opportunity and productivity metrics. Fournette ranked second in opportunity share at 90.1%, only behind Christian McCaffrey, yet he ranked 50th in total touchdowns. He ended up top four in targets and red zone touches at the running back position. That adds to Fournette’s PPR value if he continues to be involved in the passing game. He ranked sixth in rushing yards, and fifth in receiving yards and receptions.
There were 8+ defenders in the box 31.7% of the time, which was the tenth highest percentage in the NFL last season. Although Fournette’s efficiency metrics weren’t great, his yards created ranked eighth. Fournette’s NFFC ADP of 25 seems like a steal for a running back with his opportunity and productivity. Sign me up for RB1 production for a running back that never leaves the field even in negative game scripts.
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
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Last season Robby Anderson caught 52 receptions on 96 targets with 779 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Anderson’s another player like Samuel with a ton of air yards, but not a lot of receiving yards. His 1,402 air yards sandwiched him in between Stefon Diggs and Jarvis Landry. Landry’s a different type of player, but Diggs and Anderson had a similar aDOT. Diggs’ 15.1 aDOT was slightly higher than Anderson’s at 14.6, but Diggs received over 1,100 yards.
Why positive regression?
Anderson ranked 11th in deep targets, but Darnold wasn’t great with deep balls which will be discussed next. His 68.8% catchable target rate ranked 94th, target quality rating of 5.4 ranked 67th, and 78.8% true catch rate ranked 71st. All those metrics mean that Darnold struggled to get his receivers, especially Anderson, the ball.
The Panthers threw the ball 39.8 times per game which ranked second only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Adding a pass-catcher like Robby Anderson to an already explosive wide receiver group of Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore could indicate the Panthers will continue passing. As mentioned earlier, Bridgewater ranked fourth in deep-ball completion percentage at 46.7% last year. He also ranked second in play-action completion percentage at 75% and fourth in true completion percentage at 76.4%. Where did Anderson’s previous quarterback, Sam Darnold, rank in those metrics you ask? Darnold ranked 32nd in deep-ball completion percentage at 27.3%. He also ranked 24th in true completion percentage at 67.7% and 22nd in play-action completion percentage at 64.4%.
An accurate quarterback and one of the best running backs in the league should lead to production and opportunities for the Panthers wide receivers. It’s a toss-up between Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson. However, Anderson’s NFFC ADP is 150 as the 52nd receiver drafted about 20 picks before new teammate Curtis Samuel. Both Anderson and Samuel are positive regression candidates worth the potential at their respective draft price.
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
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Robert Woods ended up with 139 targets, 90 receptions, 1,134 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. He also chipped in 117 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. In terms of targets and receptions, those were career highs for Woods. Woods’ touchdown rate of 2.2% is due for positive regression in the touchdown department when you consider the target volume. The Rams ranked sixth in pass plays per game and Woods ranked eighth in targets at receiver. He ranked eighth in receptions and second in yards after the catch with 560 yards.
Why positive regression?
Woods’ production premium of -11.1 ranked 62nd and target premium of -3.5% ranked 64th, and that indicates he’s due for positive efficiency regression. His true catch rate of 89.1% ranked 11th, which is great to see for a possession receiver. With Brandin Cooks now on the Texans and Todd Gurley on the Falcons, the Rams offense might run through Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Rams already were one of the most pass-heavy teams with a 61.7% – 38.3% pass to run ratio. He’ll also be on the field a bunch since they run a three-wide receiver sets 68.3% of the time. Woods 52 NFFC ADP makes him the 21st wide receiver drafted and he’s due for positive touchdown regression as a high-end WR2.
