Running Back Analytics: Identifying The Next Breakout
As we enter prime rookie analysis season, everyone seems to have an opinion, one way or another, on each prospect. But how do we know what analysis to trust and what is just noise? That’s what drove me to dive into the data and break down the anatomy of elite players at each position. In part three, we’ll dive into the analytics of a stud dynasty running back and what makes them who they are.
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Prospect Profiling: The Anatomy Of A Top-24 Dynasty Wide Receiver
Data Set
I used these 12 players (consensus dynasty top-12) to create the data set for this research:
Christian McCaffrey
Saquon Barkley
Dalvin Cook
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Nick Chubb
Joe Mixon
Leonard Fournette
Aaron Jones
Derrick Henry
Miles Sanders
Josh Jacobs
Draft Capital
The first thing we factor in is draft capital. Where were these players selected in the NFL Draft? Using the above data set, here is how the data looks:
First Round: Five RBs
Second Round: Five RBs
Third Round: One RB
Fourth Round: None
Fifth Round: One RB
Sixth, Seventh, Undrafted: None
Aaron Jones is the outlier here, and some argue that his draft capital makes him expendable.
40-Time
Referencing a player’s 40-time is a great way to start an argument. But being fast proves athleticism and helps with the task of running away from defenders. Here is what I found:
4.40-4.49: Five RBs
4.50-4.59: Six RBs
4.60+: One RB
Josh Jacobs is the outlier here. And as you’ll see, he is the outlier on almost every measure.
Speed Score
Speed score accounts for a player’s size when calculating speed. You may also hear it referred to as Size-adjusted speed.
110+ (>90-percentile): Five RBs
100 – 109 (>65th-percentile): Four RBs
Below 100 (<65th-percentile): Three RBs
Jacobs, A Jones and Kamara are the outliers here.
Using the @rotounderworld Data Analysis tool…Antonio Gibson (5th), Jonathan Taylor (6th), and AJ Dillon (14th) all have top-15 ALL-TIME RB Speed Scores.
Coincidentally, those are three of my favorite prospects in the 2020 class. pic.twitter.com/glgVuDb5zk
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) March 29, 2020
Best College Season (Yards From Scrimmage)
>1,500 yards: Nine
<1,500 yards: Three
The outliers here are Sanders, Jacobs, and Kamara.
Burst Score
From PlayerProfiler.com: Burst score indicates a player’s zero-inertia explosiveness (stop-and-start acceleration) and ability to catch the ball outside the body. Similar in concept to Agility Score, Burst Score sums a player’s Vertical Jump height and Broad Jump distance. Additionally, the metric is calibrated to give Vertical Jump and Broad Jump equal weight.
>65th-perecentile: Seven RBs
>33rd-percentile: Two RBs
<33rd-percentile: Two RBs
Not tested: One RB
This makes sense. An NFL running back needs ‘juice’. This measures juice. The outlier here is famously Dalvin Cook.
College Target Share
>10%: Seven RBs
5-10%: Three RBs
<5%: Two RBs
The two outliers here are Jacobs and Henry.
Conclusion
So what does all this mean? It shows us what we are looking for when we want to find an elite dynasty RB1:
- Drafted in Round One or Two
- A 40-time under 4.60
- Upper percentile Speed Score
- College production
- Upper percentile Burst
- Greater than 5% college target share
