Tight End Analytics: Identifying The Next Breakout
As we enter prime rookie analysis season, everyone seems to have an opinion, one way or another, on each prospect. But how do we know what analysis to trust and what is just noise? That’s what drove me to dive into the data and break down the anatomy of elite players at each position. In part two, we’ll dive into the analytics of a stud dynasty tight end and what makes them who they are.
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Prospect Profiling: The Anatomy Of A Top-24 Dynasty Wide Receiver
Data Set
I only used nine players, but I want to identify elite and there aren’t many. These are the best of the best over the last decade.
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Zack Ertz
Greg Olsen
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Draft Capital
The first thing we factor in is draft capital. Where were these players selected in the NFL Draft? Using the above data set, here is how the data looks:
First Round: Two
Second Round: Two
Third Round: Three
Fifth Round or later: Two
George Kittle (low college production) and Gates (basketball) are the outliers. Being a day one or two pick is preferred.
40-Time
40 time is very important for a TE. They don’t have to blaze, but they can’t be slow.
4.30-4.45: One
4.45-4.60: Four
4.61-4.75: Four
4.76 +: None
Speed Score
Even more Important than 40 time is speed score. Gronkowski ran a 4.73, but at his size (6’6” 275) that’s blazing.
0-75th-percentile: One
75-85th-percentile: None
85-100th-percentile: Eight
Only Zach Ertz (55th-percentile) didn’t display elite size-adjusted speed but he was still above average. This is essential for an elite NFL TE.
Height
6’3” or shorter: One
6’4” or 6’5”: Four
6’6”: Four
Weight
245lbs or less: None
245-255lbs: Five
256lbs or more: Four
Big guys that can move fast. Seems obvious, doesn’t it?
SPARQ-x
The lowest SPARQ-x score was a 111. That is 68th-percentile. Ultimately, you are looking for an upper percentile SPARQ-x athlete.
College Dominator
The dominator rating is the percentage of team receiving production–metric so important with WRs but what about TEs?
Below 17 (50th-percentile): Two
17-25 (50th-75th-percentile): Two
Over 25 (75-100th-percentile): Four
Gates didn’t have a score because he was playing basketball. I guess it’s still nice to see production. Of course.
College Yards per Reception
What about efficiency?
Under 12 YPR: None
12 or 13 YPR: Four
14 or more YPR: Four
Yep. You’d still like to see your bet on an elite TE have some pop in college.
Conclusion
In summary, an elite NFL Tight End should look a little like this coming out of college:
- Day One of Two draft capital
- 4.75 or better 40-Time
- 80th percentile Speed Score
- 6’4”, 245lbs or bigger
- 110+ SPARQ-x
- Some production w/ 12+ YPR
