Henry Ruggs: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Position: WR
School: Alabama
Class: Junior
Date of Birth: January 24th, 1999
Height: 5-11 Weight: 188lbs
Athletic Testing
40-Time: 4.27 (100th-percentile)
Speed Score: 110.0 (90th-percentile)
Burst Score: 136.9 (98th-percentile)
Agility Score: Incomplete
Catch Radius: Incomplete
Sparq-x: Incomplete
Bio
Henry Ruggs III is entering the NFL Draft following three solid seasons at Alabama. He started his collegiate career as a five-star recruit from Montgomery, Alabama. He went on to post a season of 12 receptions for 221 yards and (19.1 YPR) six touchdowns with a 19.1 dominator rating as a freshman. Ruggs’ jump in numbers as a sophomore correlated with the team’s move to Tua Tagovailoa as its full-time starting quarterback in 2018. Ruggs finished the campaign with 46 receptions, 741 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 12 games as a junior, Ruggs saw similar numbers (40-746-7) while averaging a team-high 18.7 yards per (#YardsPer) reception. In his time at Alabama, Ruggs shared the field with other NFL-quality pass catchers Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, and Devonta Smith, which played a factor in his disappointing target share and dominator rating.
See Where Henry Ruggs Lands In Our 2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Ruggs’ gamelog over each of his three seasons at Alabama sheds light on his volatile style of play. While he scored a touchdown on nearly a quarter of his career receptions, Ruggs had just five performances of five or more receptions and had one or zero catches in 35-percent of his games.
College Stats
Henry Ruggs III College Stats Courtesy of sports-reference.com
Positives
+Elite Speed (4.27 40-yard-dash, 110.0 (90th-percentile) Speed Score)
+136.9 (98th-percentile) Burst Score
+Threat to score on any play
*17.5 (83rd-percentile) Yards Per Reception Average
+33 career kick/punt returns (0 TDs)
+Soft Hands
+Big Hands
+Speed makes him dangerous after the catch
+Quality ball-tracking skills help maximize speed as a deep-threat
+Scored a touchdown on 24.5-percent of his career receptions
I’ve come to the conclusion that Henry Ruggs will be better for #NFL teams than he will for fantasy football.
He is a one-dimensional field-stretcher.
Has No breakout age
is Sub-200lbs
had a 17.5% Dominator
Never reached 50 rec or 750 yards
(1/2)
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) February 18, 2020
Negatives
-Sub-200-pounds
-Raw
-17.5-percent (17th-percentile) College Dominator
-No breakout age
-Never reached 50 receptions or 750 receiving yards
-Two career rush attempts
-Seven games with one reception, one TD
-35-percent of games with one or zero receptions
-Five (out of 40) games with five or more receptions
Highlight Reel
Best Comparable Player (PlayerProfiler): Marquise Goodwin
NFL Draft Projection: Round 1 pick.
Since 2003, 131 WRs have entered the draft process without ever breaking out in college. Only 10 (7.6%) of them have ever gone on to post a top 24 PPR season in fantasy. No matter what way you slice it, Henry Ruggs' career arc is an uphill climb.
— Jesse Reeves (@JesseReevesFF) February 16, 2020
Bottom Line:
Ruggs is arguably the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft class. Sure, he possesses elite speed but the red flags are undeniable, particularly his lack of a breakout age. While he can be forgiven somewhat based on the other receivers he had to compete with for targets, the historical data is not in his favor. According to a study by Jesse Reeves (@JesseReevesFF), since 2003, 131 wide receivers have entered the draft process without ever breaking out in college. Only 10 (7.6%) have gone on to post a top-24 PPR season.
The bottom line is, Ruggs is a one-dimensional field-stretcher who doesn’t have the size or production profile to be an NFL WR1. He will likely have a respectable real-life career, but will be unpredictable and unreliable in fantasy. He has weekly boom-bust written all over him. I want someone I can feel good about plugging in my lineup and Ruggs is just not that guy.
Resources: DLF, PlayerProfiler, NFL.com
