With the NFL trade deadline passing this week, the Create-A-Rank team decided to dive into the best fantasy buys and sells to target in trades for the second-half of the season. This is what we came up with.
Buys
Robby Anderson, WR, Jets
No this isn’t a Halloween joke about Sam Darnold seeing ghosts. Robby Anderson is a serious buy candidate. He has a 21.8-percent target rate when Darnold plays and has seen at least 20-percent in every game since Darnold’s return. In the four games with Darnold at quarterback, Anderson averaged 7.25 targets per game. That would rank among the top-35 wide receivers for the season and ahead of Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Stefon Diggs, to name a few. If we look at just those four weeks, Anderson is ninth among all players in air yards, one of the most indicative metrics for future wide receiver production. Even if we include the games without Darnold, Anderson has averaged 13.5 yards per target (No.26) with a 14.7 (No.32) yards per reception average.
Let’s take a look at the Jets schedule for the rest of the fantasy season and how the opponents rank in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers:
Week 9: at Dolphins (20)
Week 10: vs Giants (31)
Week 11: at Redskins (18)
Week 12: vs Raiders (27)
Week 13: at Bengals (11)
Week 14: vs Dolphins (20)
Week 15: at Ravens (22)
Week 16: vs Steelers (12)
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That’s a cakewalk schedule especially after difficult matchups against the Bills, Cowboys, Browns, and Patriots (twice) in the first half of the season. The lighter schedule will help Darnold too. Only the Giants and Steelers rank in the top-half of the league in defensive sacks per game so the second-year passer should see cleaner pockets than he’s had in recent weeks. Darnold is top-10 in clean pocket completion percentage per PlayerProfiler.com. Let’s not forget what Anderson and Darnold teamed-up to do with a light schedule in the fantasy playoffs last year. Anderson was the overall WR1 in Weeks 14-16 while averaging 10.3 targets per game. Go buy Anderson now before he blows up and the price increases.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
It’s not often that a top-10 running back is a prime trade target. Derrick Henry’s history of disappointing fantasy owners has soured his outlook. Sharp players will see that he currently has the fourth most carries and ninth most yards. He’s also inside the top-10 with five rushing touchdowns. His floor and ceiling are lower than the elite backs due to his lack of work in the passing game. However, he does have a receiving touchdown this year. His rushing volume and the Titans offensive philosophy will allow him to be a consistent contributor the rest of the season. Henry’s historical trend of improving as the season goes on puts him at the top of my target list. To be fair, though, this was my plan all along.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Buy the unanimous number one tight end on draft day? Sounds crazy, right? Yes, but hat is exactly what I am saying. Travis Kelce owners may not be actively shopping him, but they are tilting. Kelce was drafted in the first two rounds for a reason. Owners spent that draft capital to get a clear advantage at a position that has been weak over the last few seasons. Kelce has been producing at a top-five level (TE4), averaging 14.3 points per game, but this has not been the advantage owners were counting on.
Kelce is worth the price and he will have an explosive rest of season, reminiscent of last season, when Patrick Mahomes returns from injury. Even playing with back-up quarterback Matt Moore, Kelce still posted a four reception, 63 yard, and one touchdown performance on eight targets. The price will be heavy, but if you’re able to package a solid tight end with a starting WR/RB, you will be able to acquire the star tight end from a middling fantasy team.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
I’m buying Julio Jones. Yes, the Falcons are a train wreck right now but they will play all but two games inside a dome the rest of the season and the other two are in warm weather areas. The Falcons defense has been among the worst units in the league so they will continue to be involved in a bunch of shootouts. The Falcons have the Saints twice, Buccaneers and Jaguars on the regular fantasy season and if you play Week 17, the Buccaneers again. Jones is a number one wide receiver that you might be able to get $0.75 on the dollar right now while everyone is down on the Falcons.
John Brown, WR, Bills
John Brown is not sexy. He might be to his wife but not to the fantasy community (Outside of maybe Matt Harmon). Oft-injured, Brown has struggled to build up steam and explode onto the scene as a consistent fantasy producer. We must go all the way back to 2015 to find Brown’s most recent (full) fantasy relevant season. He finished as the WR23 that year. Just because that was long ago doesn’t mean Brown is washed-up. He was on a great pace last year with Joe Flacco before he was replaced by then-rookie Lamar Jackson. He is on a similarly great pace this year, though. Brown is averaging 7.6 targets, 5.4 receptions, 75.1 yards, and 0.3 TDS per game. That puts him at 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
I’m not saying he is going to finish as a top-10 WR but that he is as consistent as they come, while also having week-winning upside. His lowest output is 9.5 pts and he’s reached 25.3 points once. Brown appears to be matchup proof, putting up 11.9 and 12.5 points against the rock-solid pass defenses of New England and Tennessee, respectively. What makes him most intriguing is that he still isn’t valued as a starter by most fantasy gamers. He can be had as a throw-in in a seemingly bigger deal. Trade away your big-name Odell Beckham Jr. for John Brown-plus and I promise you’ll be happy. As Josh Allen continues to progress and develop chemistry with Brown, his stock will only rise. BUY BUY BUY.
Sells
Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers
Now that Melvin Gordon’s ill-fated holdout has ended, we have begun to see what Gordon brings to the LA Offense. Currently, that’s not much other than taking snaps from Austin Ekeler. Gordon currently is averaging an anemic 2.5 yards per carry. This comes behind an offensive line that has lost two major components with center Mike Pouncey and guard Forrest Lamp placed on injured reserve. Meanwhile, Ekeler still continues to produce and, more importantly, hog the passing targets from Philip Rivers. Gordon, on the other hand, is averaging less than three receptions per game. Receiving work heavily contributed to Gordon’s workhorse back status in 2018. Without it, Gordon becomes a touchdown-dependent RB2/Flex play, with a name carrying much greater value than that. Try and ship Gordon on the name-value, and upgrade elsewhere.
Other Sells:
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals: Nice Week 8 but appears to be an outlier compared to the rest of the season. He still only played on 50.6-percent of the snaps. This is likely your last chance to get a decent value in return.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals: Perceived value spike with trade to Cardinals but with a brutal upcoming schedule and the inevitable return of both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds, Drake is an obvious sell.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles: Losing more and more targets to Dallas Goedert, and DeSean Jackson is coming back.
Robert Woods, WR, Rams: Woods had a season-low six-percent target rate in Week 8, even with Brandin Cooks out with a concussion. He has scored double-digits in PPR fantasy points just three times and Jared Goff is not good.
