AFC West Fantasy Preview
With training camps kicking off, I am previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. We are crossing the finish line with the AFC West. The top teams in the division, Kansas City and Los Angeles, each received major news recently. Oakland hopes an infusion of offensive talent will lead to results. And Denver tries yet again at quarterback. I hope you have enjoyed all the articles and gained some great insight! Finally here is the AFC West Fantasy Preview.
Denver Broncos
Will Royce Freeman Steal Phillip Lindsay’s Thunder?
Many expected good things from a rookie Broncos running back in 2018. And indeed, a rookie Bronco compiled 1,278 total yards and scored 10 touchdowns. Most figured Royce Freeman would be that man. Instead, undrafted free agency Phillip Lindsay leapfrogged Freeman and became an instantaneous fantasy waiver wire sensation.
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However, Lindsay’s stellar season ended on a down note with a wrist injury. The recovery lasted throughout the offseason. Fortunately, the start of training camp brought good news as Lindsay practiced without limitations. Nonetheless, the wrist injury raises questions about Lindsay’s durability. Those questions open the door for Freeman to regain some lost ground and forge a time share. In Week 17 last year, with Lindsay sidelined, Freeman caught eight passes and produced 103 total yards.
Lindsay should remain the main back, especially as the more explosive back of the duo. But with a lower ADP, Freeman offers a good ceiling. Even if Freeman gets no more than 40-45% of the work, that will be enough for flex value. And it will be enough to make Lindsay a bigger risk. You will hear a lot about this situation leading up to the season.
Passing Game Puzzle
Since Peyton Manning retired, Denver’s quarterback situation has been as dismal as a typical New York Knicks season. Broncos general manager John Elway has tried Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemien, and most recently, Case Keenum. And Denver also employed Brock Osweiler for a second tour of duty. This time around, Elway cooked up plans involving both a retread and a rookie. After having tormented the Broncos in the 2012 playoffs, Joe Flacco arrives after a long stint in Baltimore. Drew Lock enters as a second round from the University of Missouri. Make no mistake, barring something unforeseen, Flacco will start Denver’s first game at Oakland. Many feel Lock has a lot to learn. But Flacco has been far from impressive in recent years.
The questions for Denver go beyond the quarterback, starting with the wide receivers. Emmanuel Sanders avoided the PUP list to start camp, but will Sanders regain full form after a torn Achilles? If Sanders shows solid health, fantasy owners hoping for a breakout from Courtland Sutton could be disappointed. The deep sleeper potential of DaeSean Hamilton would also take a hit. Hamilton caught 25 passes and scored two touchdowns in Denver’s final four games of the season.
All of the Broncos wide receivers have another threat to contend with beyond the potentially erratic quarterbacks. Tight end Noah Fant, a first-round pick out of Iowa, gives Denver a different dynamic. Some of Flacco’s favorite targets during his final days in Baltimore were tight ends. Dennis Pitta caught 86 passes in 2016 while Ben Watson had 61 receptions in 2017.
Despite all of the ambiguity, fantasy owners should not ignore the Denver air game entirely. If you draft later in the summer, keep tabs on who seems to have the most chemistry with Flacco.
Kansas City Chiefs
Can Damien Deliver All Season?
After the Chiefs waived Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams notched six touchdowns in the final four games of the season. Williams added four more scores in Kansas City’s two playoff games. Not bad for a player who had nine touchdowns in four years in Miami. Now Williams will take on an important role in the Chiefs offense. Although Kansas City signed Carlos Hyde and drafted Darwin Thompson, Williams heads into the season as the starter. The debate among many fantasy gurus regarding the fantasy integrity of Williams remains passionate. Will Williams be guaranteed success as the lead back in Andy Reid’s system? Or was his late season spurt a fluke with disappointment to come?
Given the lack of speculation or information concerning a committee, Williams seems more likely to boom than bust. Unless an unforeseen plot twist comes to the forefront, he rides volume to success.
No Suspension for Hill
Most football observers were assuming there would be a lengthy suspension for Tyreek Hill. Instead, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell chose not to discipline the controversial wide receiver. Contingency plans made by the Chiefs moved to the back burner. At some point, the Chiefs could have to revisit those plans. Hill has been in trouble before and nearly got in trouble again. You have to think the league is now at a point of zero tolerance. Any false move and Hill goes to the sidelines for a long time.
Some fantasy folks will refuse to draft Hill entirely, not wanting to have to cheer for him. Others selecting him realize the risk that he could still find a way to foul everything up. But the fact remains he will be drafted high in most leagues. With Hill back in the fold, how does his return impact the rest of the Kansas City wide receivers?
Sammy Watkins has played 16 games in a season just once, all the way back in 2014. That was his rookie season with the Buffalo Bills. In 10 games last year with the Chiefs, Watkins caught 40 passes for 519 yards and three touchdowns. Not exactly great numbers when you have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback.
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Mecole Hardman comes to Kansas City by way of the University of Georgia. The Chiefs selected the speedy Hardman in the second round of April’s draft. Kansas City traded up to draft Hardman, seemingly as a replacement for Hill.
Demarcus Robinson had four touchdowns in a limited role last year. With Chris Conley departing for Jacksonville, Robinson’s involvement will grow to some degree. However, Robinson would not be someone you want to bank on regularly.
So that leaves Watkins and Hardman as the main targets beyond Hill and star tight end Travis Kelce. Any chance at a large profit from Watkins as a fifth or sixth round pick has evaporated. Do you want Watkins as a risky WR3? If Hardman shows anything during camp and preseason, he probably still stays in the WR4 range. But he would offer the potential for huge games. His promise later in drafts would be better than the early bust potential of Watkins.
Los Angeles Chargers
Melvin Mystery
Not that long ago, Los Angeles was having a tranquil offseason. Exactly what you want when you have Super Bowl aspirations. Then star running back Melvin Gordon declares he wants big bucks. Absent a huge payday, Gordon becomes a holdout. And now the Chargers and fantasy owners are both tasting turmoil. If you have already drafted Gordon, I hope everything gets ironed out. You do not want to see Gordon traded. Although he has the talent to make his mark elsewhere, his situation could easily be worse. Of course, a trade would be better than a Le’Veon Bell-style absence. At least you would be getting some production out of him.
For those with drafts down the line, Gordon’s state of affairs will dominate headlines. Maybe this will be the equivalent of a quick downpour. If that’s the case, nothing should stop you from looking at him after the first four picks of the first round. But if it turns into a hurricane, seek shelter. And seek shelter in the form Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson.
The value of Ekeler, who plays quite a bit even when Gordon’s around, would hold steady or increase slightly in his absence. The Chargers use Ekeler extensively as a receiver and that would not change. It would be Jackson getting the biggest boost. When Gordon missed Week 15, Jackson got 16 carries and notched 85 total yards and a touchdown.
Best Red Zone Target for Philip Rivers?
With Tyrell Williams having left for Oakland in free agency, the Chargers lost a home run threat. However, with Hunter Henry returning after having missed the entire regular season, Los Angeles gains another red zone weapon. The top red zone target for Los Angeles last year was Mike Williams. Williams scored 10 touchdowns on just 43 receptions. With Tyrell Williams gone, Mike Williams will rightfully get more targets. But a healed Henry could easily steal some of his thunder in the most important part of the field.
And let’s not forget top target Keenan Allen. While Allen scored just six touchdowns in both 2017 and 2018, he picked up the pace down the stretch. From Weeks 10-14, Allen scored a touchdown in every game. None of those end zone voyages came from beyond 14 yards. Could Keenan be due for a serious spike in scores at long last? When you haul in as many passes as Allen does, it cannot be ruled out. All three players should contribute to plenty of winning fantasy rosters. Just do not be surprised when the Chargers exercise variety in scoring territory rather than one main man.
Oakland Raiders
Brownsville
Many of us enjoy a good old-fashioned road trip. And while a road trip can be slow, usually we want to get to our destination rapidly. You know the exhilarating feeling when you are cruising at 70 and making great time. And then, you hit some spot where you have to slow down to 35. You just want to get out of there. In the realm of football, Antonio Brown felt that being in Pittsburgh was his version of a speed trap. Now in Oakland, hope for a Raiders revival rests largely on Brown steering brilliantly through enemy highways. But will Brown click as well with Derek Carr as he did Ben Roethlisberger? Will he stay among the WR1 ranks?
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Despite the downgrade Carr provides, head coach Jon Gruden’s system ought to save the day. Gruden enters his second season on his second tour of duty with the Raiders. Historically, Gruden peppers his top receiver with targets, dating back to his prior days with the Raiders. When he first started with Oakland, it was future Hall of Famer Tim Brown who was heavily involved.
Last year, Gruden did not have a number one receiver. For all his faults, Brown fills that void. His departure from Pittsburgh costs Brown overall WR1 status. Nonetheless, do not expect him to slide down into WR2 terrain. Brown stays locked in as a WR1, albeit with less upside.
Can Jacobs Carry the Load?
Under Nick Saban, a number of Alabama running backs have made it to the NFL. The biggest success stories have been Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, and Kenyan Drake. The biggest disaster was Trent Richardson. The Raiders hope Josh Jacobs is not Richardson.
Part of Oakland’s offseason overhaul, Jacobs was selected 24th overall by the Silver and Black in April. The Raiders had signed Isaiah Crowell, but Crowell suffered a torn Achilles during a workout and was lost for the season. After Crowell’s injury, the Raiders brought Doug Martin back into the fold. Jalen Richard returns as well after catching 68 passes last year.
But the front office did not draft Jacobs to have him take a back seat to anyone. Barring a big struggle, Jacobs has a clear path to immediate prominence. Our composite rankings showcase a solid belief in Jacobs’ potential, placing him as an RB2. Obviously, everyone will need to make sure Jacobs looks to be the real deal. As long as that turns out to be the case, place your faith in this promising rookie.
