1. Safe Picks End Seasons, Upside Builds Champions
Let me just start by saying that Adrian Peterson is a living legend in the NFL and a future Hall of Famer. He was a superstar for nearly a decade in Minnesota and has been a useful veteran since. Any coach in the league would happily have him as part of their RB room. However, there is absolutely no way that fantasy gamers should select him in drafts this August.
Peterson is currently RB46 on ESPNs ADP charts. Admittedly it is a low price to pay, but to pick him here is essentially choosing to kneel when you should be throwing a Hail Mary. At this spot, you should already have at least two, probably three or four RBs on your squad. This means that you have the security to swing for the fences with your pick here. Any pick after round eight or nine should always be a shot for a breakout. Any “safe” pick after that point is guaranteed to have a low ceiling.
Need Fantasy Team Building Strategy Advice? Schedule Your FREE 1-on-1 Expert Chat Now!
Currently within the RB40-60 range are guys who could boom like Chris Thompson and Matt Breida. We can also find high-value role players in this range like Damien Harris and Jaylen Samuels, or talented handcuffs who are likely to see playing time like Ito Smith or Darrell Henderson. Every player on that list provides greater upside than Peterson. Don’t ignore production or opportunity, especially not early, but once your Week 1 starters are established at RB and WR, it’s time to take a swing on upside. Not all of them will pay off, in fact most will not, but if you can find a top-10 RB or WR after Round 10, you might just ride them to a title. All it takes is one player to hit big to change a season. At this point in his career, Peterson is not going to be that homerun pick.
2. Draft Capital Is Meaningless Once The Selection Is Made
Everyone has really bad misses in fantasy every year. Last year, I used my fourth round pick on New England WR Chris Hogan. At the time, he seemed like a good pick, especially as my WR3, having already selected AJ Green and Davante Adams. I saw opportunity, a connection with his QB, and a prolific offense around him. Do you remember all those leagues that Hogan owners won last year? Me neither.
Everyone makes bad picks, even the experts whiff plenty. Making a bad pick is not the biggest issue. Blind loyalty to that pick is. If a player is not performing by Week four or five, it is quite unlikely that he will suddenly explode. At this point, it depends purely on what kind of value you are still getting, but don’t be too proud to seek a replacement. Sometimes they are still valuable depth, sometimes they are a lost cause. Either way, don’t be afraid to move on.
3. No Player is Truly Untradeable
It sounds so obvious, but the best fantasy gamers are always looking for ways to improve their team, no matter their record. They may not find many deals actually worth completing, but they will always be open to discussion. They understand one simple thing: NOBODY is untradeable. Sure, some players may take a huge haul, but always be willing to consider a deal. Just because a player dragged you to back-to-back wins, doesn’t mean that he should be totally off the board. Every league will always have desperate owners looking to turn around a bad season, or a contender looking to add that final piece. If a deal will improve your team, don’t be too afraid to move your prized asset.
4. Know When to Walk Away
Building on the previous point, never feel like you have to accept a deal, even if you’ve worked on it for hours. An awful lot of trade offers you receive will be absolute robberies against you, but many can seem closer than they actually are. Name value and recency bias matters. If a boom-or-bust player has been performing well recently, do not just assume it will continue. Similarly, assuming a “name-brand” will deliver production is an easy way to get played. Before every deal, you should always check production, opportunity, schedule and injury reports for all players involved.
5. Never Too Early to Take Talent
A QB in the first two rounds is near madness these days, and you will have to rely on replacing top-end RB or WR production with a sleeper, which is a risky game to play. However, while it would not always be my way of doing things, there is something to be said about positional dominance. A team that can roll out a top-five fantasy QB every week does have a clear advantage over a team relying on a QB10, or streaming options. Similarly, it can be a game-changer to have a D/ST or kicker who dominates their position every week. In 2017, I had a revolving door at QB, who scored very poorly most weeks, but Greg Zuerlein was an absolute lock to win his kicker matchup every week. A kicker or defense will never be worth a top-50 pick, but there is something to be said about picking a stud at a position, a couple rounds before others turn their attention to that spot.
Create Your Own Player Rankings For the 2019 Season! – Click Here Now!
Sure, you may miss out on a starting caliber position player, but if you could get a guaranteed top-three QB every week, you’d happily spend a fourth rounder on him. Nobody ever lost a league because they had Aaron Rodgers or the Legion of Boom Defense. It’s never too early to take talent, but if you’re going against positional value, then you better hit on your pick.
6. Opportunity is King But Talent Matters
Many experts will often use the phrase “opportunity is king” in fantasy football. This is true, but only to an extent. A starting WR on any team sounds like a valuable asset,. But if a player has opportunity, but lacks the skill set to be a consistent fantasy contributor, drafting them will be less than optimal. Going back to my Chris Hogan anecdote, just because somebody is the clear No. 1 in real football, does not make him fantasy gold.
NFL coaches adjust their gameplans for talent every week, getting their best players out on the field. Someone may start the season further down the depth chart than is ideal, but talent always rises to the top. Look at Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsay last year. One was a high-pick, one was an UDFA. But Lindsay’s elite vision and burst made him impossible to keep off the field. The Broncos changed their plans to accommodate him, and quick-thinking fantasy owners picked up a true talent at RB off waivers after Week 1 or 2. On the opposite end, Peyton Barber had plenty of opportunity as the Bucs’ RB1, but his lack of elite talent capped his fantasy production.
