2019 NFC South Fantasy Preview
With training camps kicking off, I am previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. We set sail to the NFC South, where still sour New Orleans will only be satisfied with a trip to the Super Bowl. Atlanta and Carolina look to return to contention after injuries hampered both squads. And Tampa Bay turns to new head coach Bruce Arians, who worked wonders in Arizona. All four squads have plenty of fantasy stars and stories. Welcome aboard as we dive into the NFC South fantasy preview!
Atlanta Falcons
Comeback Season for Devonta Freeman?
Due to injury, Devonta Freeman played just two games in 2018. Freeman also had a down year in 2017 after electric seasons in 2015 and 2016. The arrow appears to be pointing down. However, before we anoint Freeman as a flop, there is reason for hope. First and foremost, the Falcons continue to believe in him. Atlanta allowed Freeman’s main sidekick, Tevin Coleman, to leave for San Francisco without much of a fight. Ito Smith moves into the number two role, but likely will get less work than Coleman did. Fifth-round selection Qadree Ollison and holdover Brian Hill are also in the picture. Neither projects as a serious threat for playing time heading into camp. In other words, barring another round of bad injury luck, Freeman will return as Atlanta’s top backfield weapon.
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Expecting him to return to his superstar days may be a bit much, but expecting at least RB2 production is more than reasonable. And with depressed draft position, the upside will be greater if Freeman is fully healthy for a change. Also, game scripts may work more in favor of the Falcons backfield this year. Their defense suffered through an injury epidemic in 2018, leaving them fighting from behind nearly every week. Atlanta’s passing game remains the strength of their offense, but they will likely find themselves in fewer shootouts.
Dirk’s Back
With the Falcons not having a lot of positional battles relative to other teams, we are going to focus on the big picture. Former Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter returns to Atlanta as offensive coordinator. Koetter held the same position in Atlanta from 2012-2014. Atlanta’s most recent offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, often puzzled observers. Sarkisian’s first year in 2017 was widely regarded as a disaster. While improvement took place in his second season, enough dissatisfaction remained to where the Falcons fired him. With Koetter already having a track record with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, the transition should be smooth. That said, it would help ensure confidence if Atlanta comes out crisp during the preseason. Regardless, Koetter’s presence ought to be more of a positive than a negative after the Sarkisian era.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Healthy for Camp
Cam Newton’s once ailing shoulder has healed enough to where he will be ready for training camp. The shoulder issue is what comes to mind first when reflecting on Newton’s 2018 campaign. It overshadows a lot of positives. Newton had the highest completion percentage of his career, albeit partly because he was throwing shorter passes more often. Still, Newton took well to the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Further growth under Turner can be expected. Newton’s fantasy value will change as we get closer to the regular season, dictated by how healthy he looks in training camp and preseason. Right now, despite all of his past fantasy success, many classify him in the upper-end QB2 range. Our composite rankings paint a much better picture, with Newton firmly in the QB1 class. As long as everything looks good, Newton will be less of a bargain, but more of a sure thing. And he will probably remain available longer than he would have in the past.
Young Guns
Christian McCaffrey catches everything and Greg Olsen decided against retirement. But the other headline receivers are youngsters. D.J. Moore caught 55 passes for 788 yards as a rookie. Curtis Samuel, now heading into his third season, scored seven touchdowns. Ian Thomas is ready to take over whenever Olsen decides to hang it up.
One key reason Moore and Samuel are in the spotlight is the departure of Devin Funchess. Largely disappointing before leaving for Indianapolis, Funchess was targeted 79 times in 14 games in 2018. A good portion of those targets will go to Moore, with Samuels getting his fair share. However, volume often equals results and Moore will get the most targets of the duo. Our rankings show Moore firmly among the WR2s. Samuel embodies a WR3 who is going to have some volatility, but can produce winning weeks by himself. This duo provides fantasy owners with plenty of promise.
New Orleans Saints
Murray Replaces Ingram
With a team that should have been in the Super Bowl, the Saints lack any major question marks. One noteworthy change for New Orleans came when Mark Ingram departed for Baltimore in free agency. To replace him, the Saints signed Latavius Murray, most recently of the Minnesota Vikings. Whenever Dalvin Cook was sidelined, Murray performed admirably for the Vikings. In Week 6 last year against Arizona, Murray rushed for 155 yards and a touchdown. He then found the end zone twice the following week vs. the New York Jets.
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From a raw talent perspective, Murray offers less than Ingram. And that means little when you factor in the success of the Saints scheme. Ingram missed four games to suspension last year but still mustered up 815 yards and seven touchdowns. Murray ought to be able to match those numbers, making him a useful flex.
Connecting with Cook
Since New Orleans parted ways with Jimmy Graham, they have struggled to find playmakers at tight end. In an effort to find a remedy, the Saints signed Jared Cook in free agency. Cook set career highs in receptions, touchdowns, and yardage last year with Oakland.
His solid performance does not take away from the fact that he was once regarded as an underachiever. After all, he somehow managed to virtually disappear when he was paired with Aaron Rodgers in 2016. Cook also had a bigger target share in Oakland. In New Orleans, Cook slots in well behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the pecking order for targets. On the other hand, the rest of the New Orleans cast does not present much of a threat to Cook, especially in the red zone. Ted Ginn has been in the league since 2007 and has only scored 10 touchdowns once. Tre’Quan Smith was largely a disappointment as a rookie. Taysom Hill remains a nuisance, but every New Orleans player deals with that. So maybe Cook disappoints somewhat. Overall, though, the veteran should produce like a TE1 in the potent New Orleans attack.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston’s Last Stand
Heading into the last season of his contract, either Jameis Winston gets on track, or Tampa finds an alternative. And if Winston fails to succeed now, it will be quite an indictment. New Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians has long had a reputation as a quarterback guru. If anyone can get Winston on track, it’s Arians. Arians loves pass-happy offenses, and with Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and Chris Godwin, Tampa’s weapons are among the NFL’s best.
With the depth of quarterback position this year, Winston’s draft position may be that of a QB2. It makes sense, as Arians might make Winston walk the plank if he cannot curb his turnover tendencies. Having Winston as part of your team will be scary. It might also be exhilarating. You get someone who could finish in the top-five at his position. And if he flops, plenty of others are capable of stepping in and giving you a quality start.
Tangled Tampa Backfield
In today’s NFL, a second-round running back should at least be a committee back. At least. When Tampa selected Ronald Jones in 2018, they dreamed bigger. After all, his competition consisted of Peyton Barber and journeyman Jacquizz Rodgers. The dream turned into a nightmare. Jones averaged a ridiculously bad 1.9 yards per carry and rushed for a grand total of 44 lousy yards.
Barber bailed out the Bucs by rushing for 871 yards and scoring six touchdowns. Nonetheless, Barber remains a grinder who realistically cannot be considered a long-term answer for Tampa. After all, he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.
As bad as Jones was, Arians grants him a fresh start. The only “name” running back Tampa added was Andre Ellington. Ellington, who played for Arians in Arizona, signed with Tampa after spending last year out of the league. Ellington struggles to hold up physically when given an extensive workload. He will be a factor as a receiver if he makes the team.
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Maybe an undrafted free agent surprises. Maybe the Buccaneers bring someone in via trade. But if nothing changes, Jones could shock the world and go from dud to stud. His advancement leading up to the regular season will be critical. Either he emerges as a player to target, or Barber once again becomes the Bucs back to own.
