What is Scott Fish Bowl 9?
Hey, you…person reading this…Guess what? It’s that time of year again. Draft season is upon us and perhaps the most prestigious fantasy football tournament is underway. If you are unfamiliar with the Scott Fish Bowl—first, where have you been? Secondly, the #SFB is a league composed of 1,200 of the world’s best fantasy gamers. Just about every analyst known to man is involved, with some fans mixed in too.
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Scott Fish Bowl 9 Scoring Settings
This year is the ninth running of the tournament, hence the name Scott Fish Bowl 9 or, as it is referred to on Twitter, #SFB9. Scott Fish, the creator of the event, sets unique scoring settings every year. The full set of scoring settings for this year’s league can be found here. Some of the things that stand out are the points per first down, the tight end premium scoring, and yardage bonuses. The starting lineup requirements are: 1-2 QBs, 2-6 RBs, 3-7 WRs, 1-5 TEs.
Live Blog
I am representing Create-A-Rank in the Agent Fourty-Seven division of the “Bad Asses” league. I hold pick 1.11. Throughout the draft I will be live blogging analysis of my picks and how our league’s draft is unfolding. I will include notes on my draft strategy as well as my thoughts on the players I choose. I will discuss some of the draft picks made by the other teams but if you want to follow along pick-by-pick you can here.
Draft Order
1.Asylum Fantasy Football – Rick Fleeger (@asylumfootball)
2. Hot Take Pod – Steven Toroni (@FFprofessorST3)
3. Rotoworld – Ed Williams (@EdWilliams300)
4. Fan – Bryan Holzgen (@draftaddict)
5. Fan – Wells Engledow (@)
6. ZachLawOnline – Zach Law (@zach_law)
7. numberFire – Mitch Carl (@DFSnDONUTS)
8. Rotoballer – Pierre Camus (@pfunk00)
9. Yahoo – Brad Evans (@YahooNoise)
10. Fan – Mike Jernigan (@mikejernigan79)
11. Create A Rank – Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF)
12. Fan – Michael Sewell (@rip1980)
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Round One: Monday July, 8th 11 am est
Here we go…
Barkley goes 1.01 and CMC 1.02. Not much of a surprise here. Expecting Zeke 1.03. I have a plan for the 1.11/2.02 turn. Hopefully everything falls as expected.
11:38 am
Eight picks are in. Travis Kelce lands at 1.07 which is right about where I expected in this format. His ADP across the 32 mock drafts was fifth overall. Yahoo!’s Brad Evans is on the clock at 1.09 and the 1.10 drafter has pre-draft set. My 1.11 should get here in no time. My top target still remains on the board.
12:10 pm – First Pick
While not a complete shock given the favorable scoring for elite TEs, Zach Ertz at 1.10 was the first somewhat surprising selection so far. With 1.10 in the books, I was finally able to make my first pick. I didn’t expect Patrick Mahomes to still be available considering the superflex scoring, but I’m confident in the depth of the position to wait on quarterback. At 1.11 I took the guy I have been eyeing…Julio Jones.
Jones turned 30 earlier this year but still has another year or two of elite production left in him. His ability to make the big plays and consistently hit those bonus achievements makes him a great selection at this point.
Don’t tell Mr. 1.12/2.01, but my target in round two is Dalvin Cook. Hopefully he will still be on the board.
12:25 pm Round one complete. Pick 2.02 submitted
Round one went quick! Hopefully we can keep this strong pace going. The ‘big three’ tight ends all went in the first round. After Michael went George Kittle and Michael Thomas at the turn, I selected Cook at 2.02. I love this Vikings offense this year. Cook is finally healthy and faces no competition for backfield snaps. He is my RB7 in my 2019 running back rankings. Running backs who catch passes are great options in any scoring system but especially when they can hit the 50-yard achievements in both rushing and receiving. Cook averaged 4.5 targets per game in 11 contests last year. In an explosive offense, he is in line for a huge season. I am very happy with the start of this draft.
2:01 pm #LateRoundQB
We are four picks into the second round. No quarterbacks have been selected yet. It is looking like waiting for QB is the strategy this league is following. Although, as is the case in any superflex league, a run on quarterbacks can happen at anytime. My plan coming in was to wait until 5.11 to take my first. We’ll see how it shakes out.
6:30 pm Finally A QB. Gurley dropping
Patrick Mahomes finally came off the board at 2.07. Out of the 100 leagues in SFB9, Mahomes went in the first round in 70-percent of them. Our league is an outlier from that perspective. Mahomes remains the only quarterback selected through 20 picks. James Conner went one pick ahead of his former teammate. While both Bell and Conner have red flags, I personally would be more comfortable with Bell. Jaylen Samuels is a real threat to Conner’s snaps.
I am rooting for a mini quarterback run in the third so I can get my hands on some combination of Marlon Mack, Damien Williams, Derrick Henry, Adam Thielen, or Stefon Diggs at the 3/4 turn.
Tuesday 1 am Three Quarterbacks and A Gurley
As expected, a mini quarterback run has begun. Three out of five selections to end the second round were Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. The great Todd Gurley fell all the way to 2.11. The knee injury is a real concern. While other leagues have seen him go late first/early second round, our league appears more risk averse. Optimal draft strategy says make safe picks in the first four or five rounds. Then, focus on maximizing upside the rest of the way. So far it appears the majority of this league shares that strategy. That should make things more interesting the rest of the way. One final Gurley-related note. With Gurley falling, it’s likely Darrell Henderson will be picked earlier than his ninth round ADP.
I am off to bed now, looking forward to making my third selection in the morning. Goodnight.
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9:10 am 3.11 Fast Approaching
Picks 3.05-3.08 went Damien Williams, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, and Stefon Diggs. I was most disappointed to see Diggs come off the board. I thought there was a real shot he would be available at 3.11 or 4.02. His WR-mate Adam Thielen is ranked one spot ahead of him so maybe he will be there. Marlon Mack is my top target right now but I’m not real confident he will make it to me. I would have taken him ahead of all of the previous four selections.
Best available:
RB Marlon Mack
WR Adam Thielen
RB Derrick Henry
WR Keenan Allen
WR Amari Cooper
TE OJ Howard
RB Kerryon Johnson
1:34 pm The 3/4 Turn
The pace has finally picked up a bit. Unfortunately, Yahoo!’s Brad Evans sniped me by taking Mack two picks before mine. Therefore, I went with Derrick Henry at 3.11. I wanted another running back before the fifth round and Henry was the only remaining option I felt good about. Had he not been available, I would have gone WR. Even though I like Kerryon Johnson the player, I am not interested in running backs on bad offenses. The Titans offense is certainly not the greatest show on turf either, but with Mariota healthy and added weapons in the passing game, I expect a solid season from Tennessee.
After Johnson and Russell Wilson went back-to-back at 3.12 and 4.01, I selected Adam Thielen at 4.02. This pick was a no-brainer. Thielen is my WR9. Taking him at the end of the third felt like great value even in a superflex. Had he not been available, I would have had a difficult decision between Keenan Allen and O.J. Howard. I was already struggling with that decision so I was relieved to not have to make it. I was leaning Howard though, given the scoring format.
My eyes are on quarterback for both my 5.11 and 6.02 picks. We will see how the board falls, but that is the tentative plan. Give me a shoutout on Twitter @a_johnsonFF and let me know what you think of my draft so far!
11:05 pm QBs, QBs,and more QBs
Kyler Murray was the eighth quarterback off the board at 5.02. It was a heartbreaking moment as he was my top target in the fifth round. I wasn’t surprised he went, though, and had a backup plan ready. At 5.11 I went with Lamar Jackson. While his passing stats will be pedestrian, his rushing ability is a fantasy football cheat code. He will consistently reach the five point bonuses by rushing for 50 yards. There will be several games where he will get to 100 or even 150 yards on the ground. 150 yards rushing would equate to 15 points of bonuses alone, never mind the 15 for the yardage. That would be 30 points just from his rushing.
Jackson is one of eight quarterbacks taken over the last 16 picks, including my 6.02 selection Kirk Cousins. I am now fully invested in the Vikings offense. It will be nice to have the Cousins-Thielen stack. Cousins is inside the top-10 of my QB rankings. He will be in the second year of his three-year deal with the Vikings. The team has said it will run a lot more play-action in 2019, an area Cousins excelled in a year ago. In 2018, Cousins was No.2 with a 75.9-percent completion percentage when running play-action.
There are now four teams with two quarterbacks and one team still yet to take its first. The rest all have one. I will be targeting a third and final QB at the 7/8 turn.
Wednesday July 10 12:10 pm – More Quarterbacks As We Begin Round Seven
We are now into the seventh round and quarterbacks are still flying off the board. Since my last update, there have been five quarterbacks taken in nine picks. There are now 19 quarterbacks total off the board, leaving just 10 more that I feel comfortable drafting as my QB3. The question becomes, do I take that final QB at the 7/8 turn or play QB chicken in hopes that I can land one later? It is a decision I have been struggling with over the last few hours. It will come down to who is available at 7.11/8.02.
I have begun considering my tight end options at this point. There are still plenty on the board that I like so I expect I will wait until the 9/10 turn before taking my first. But of course, anything can happen depending on how the board falls.
We are now three picks into the seventh round as Chris Carson came off the board as I am writing this entry. If I were to draft a Seattle running back it would be Rashaad Penny, not Carson. But I digress, as my thoughts on that are well-documented. Carson was one of four-straight running backs (Tarik Cohen, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram) that I had zero interest in drafting anyway so I was quite pleased as that allows guys I’m targeting to fall. My No.1 target with my text pick is Christian Kirk, the ultimate breakout WR of 2019.
What do you think I should do next? Comment below or give me a shoutout on Twitter!
1:30 pm – Heartbreak
Christian Kirk just came off the board five picks ahead of me and I am distraught. That is all. More updates to come.
4:42pm – 7.11 & 8.02, Plan B
After Kirk went a few spots ahead of where I was planning to take him, I needed a new plan. At 7.11, I bit the bullett and went with touchdown-regression candidate Calvin Ridley. Ridley had an unsustainable number of touchdowns as a rookie, but as the WR2 in a prolific offense, he still provides good value at the end of the seventh round. His SFB9 mock draft ADP was 66th overall. I am happy getting him at 83.
At 8.02 I considered Allen Robinson and even had a few thoughts about Rashaad Penny. Instead, I went with Robby Anderson. Sam Darnold is an obvious breakout candidate after his strong finish to his rookie campaign. Darnold’s strong finish correlated into Anderson finishing as overall WR1 from Weeks 14-16. If Darnold continues on that trajectory, the sky is the limit for his WR1. Anderson was ninth in average target distance and 11th in total target distance. He was 25th in yards per reception.
The eighth round has had a few curious selections from my league-mates. Peyton Barber went at 8.01, ahead of guys like Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Rashaad Penny, and Darrell Henderson. Even his teammate Ronald Jones has higher upside and would have been a reasonable choice. But, hey, bad picks from the others will increase my chances of winning. Speaking of bad picks, Delanie Walker at 8.05 was eyebrow-raising as well. Walker is coming off a lost season and will be 35-years old next month. There’s no guarantee he will be fully healed for training camp or even Week 1. There is a real possibility he begins the year on PUP. Eric Ebron, David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Vance McDonald, TJ Hockenson, Chris Herndon, Mark Andrews, Jack Doyle, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, Trey Burton, and Jordan Reed are all better tight end options and still available.
Thursday 1:40 pm – Time For Tight End?
I am now the only team that has not yet taken a tight end. Since my last pick, three of my top options (David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Vance McDonald) at the position have come off the board. This leaves the best available as Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson, Chris Herndon, and Jack Doyle. I may take one at the next pick, but I’m comfortable continuing to wait. I have my eyes on Rashaad Penny, Lamar Miller, or Latavius Murray at the 9/10 turn. My 9.11 pick is just three away as I write this.
11:47 pm – Murray & Keke At The 9/10 Turn
Latavius Murray was my 9.11 selection. Mark Ingram’s departure leaves 13.3 vacated touches per game. Murray is now operating in one of the league’s most running back-friendly offenses and behind one of the best offensive lines. Over the last two seasons, Ingram averaged 14.75 fantasy points per game. Now Murray, a more explosive version of Ingram, will play a similar role in the Saints offense. Murray has been one of the best goal line backs during his time in the league. Since 2014, Murray ranks fifth among active running backs with 25 rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. He has massive touchdown upside with the Saints. If anything were to happen to Alvin Kamara, Murray’s fantasy production would be through the roof.
After Matthew Stafford and Sterling Shepard went at 9.12 and 10.01, I made KeKe Coutee my choice at 10.02. With Will Fuller coming off a mid-season ACL tear, and having a history of injuries, Coutee is in line for a sizable role in the Texans offense. It’s one of the most prolific offenses in the league, lending great upside. With no tight end of consequence and the lack of a dynamic pass-catcher out of the backfield, there will be plenty of short area targets for Coutee. His average target distance in 2018 was just 5.5 yards. His 2.32-yard target separation average, though, was second best in the league.
Friday July, 12 1:11 pm – Finally Took A TE
I did it. I finally did it. Following a wave of teams taking their TE2, I finally pushed the button on my TE1. While I had my eyes on Mark Andrews and expected to be able to get him at this turn, he fell off the board several picks before. I was disappointed but was very happy to land Chris Herndon at 11.11. Despite facing a two-game suspension, Herndon is in the top-10 tight ends in my rankings. I have to say, after waiting this long to take tight end, I am thrilled with who I got. Herndon will be one of the top targets in an ascending offense with a quarterback I expect to have a breakout sophomore campaign.
At 12.02, I had a tough decision to make. There were two players jumping off the board at me, both with massive upside for 2019. One was Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the other Ravens RB Justice Hill. My love for MVS is well-documented. And if you follow me on Twitter (@a_johnsonFF), you know my love for Hill as well. The pick I went with was Hill.
I want Justice Hill and Damien Harris on every single one of my fantasy teams in 2019 #FantasyFootball
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) June 11, 2019
Hill led all running backs at the NFL Combine in the 40-yard dash (4.40), vertical jump (40 inches), and broad jump (130.0). He was highly productive from day one at Oklahoma State, over-taking incumbent starter Chris Carson. In fact, his 1,142 Rush Yards in 2016 is the most by a freshman in Oklahoma State history and fifth most by a freshman in Big-12 history. He now steps into a run-heavy Baltimore offense with only Mark Ingram ahead of him on the depth chart. Hill will likely have a significant role in the Ravens offense. I love this pick in the 12th round.
I knew by passing on Valdes-Scantling that it would be highly unlikely he would still be available in the 13th round. Sure enough, he went just a couple picks later. There are still plenty of high-upside WRs that I like, making it an easier pill to swallow. Stay tuned for what’s next!
3 pm – Herndon Suspension
Unfortunately, the NFL has suspended Herndon for four games despite initial reports indicating it would be two. This certainly sours my feelings on the pick. Damn.
Saturday July, 13 12:17 pm – Sniped
It’s Scott Fish Bowl, right? A 1,200-person league. If I am going to win a 1,200-person league I have to take a few big swings. With that mindset, I was locked into the plan of taking suspended Patriots WR Josh Gordon in the 13th round. The upside is massive if he plays. I was ready. I mentally prepared myself to pass on other players that in a regular format I would draft over Gordon. Finally my pick was so close. I didn’t even consider someone else would take him at this point. Sure enough, though, two picks ahead of me Brad Evans snipes me again. SMH
I never thought I’d be sniped for Josh Gordon in #SFB9. Damn pic.twitter.com/CfH2k1G5Gk
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) July 13, 2019
After I collected myself, I went with Parris Campbell at 13.11. Don’t get me wrong, I am thrilled to take Campbell at this point. I am the biggest Campbell fan out there. But the upside of Gordon was much greater. But I’m over it. I really am. Maybe.
I followed the Campbell pick up with my TE2 Mike Gesicki. I’ve never been a big Gesicki fan, but I love the upside at this point in the draft. He is a freak athlete in an offense thirsty for talented pass-catchers. He added weight this offseason which will hopefully allow him to be on the field for more snaps. I needed another TE after three Herndon news. I’m happy with this pick.
Sunday 12:30 am 15/16 turn
At 15.11 I went with another high-upside WR: Tre’Quan Smith. Smith flashed as a rookie and now has a chance to be the WR2 in a prolific Saints offense. Easy choice at the end of the 15th.
At 16.02 I was debating between Duke Johnson and Ian Thomas. My decision was made easier when Duke Johnson was selected at 15.12. Thomas is a great athlete at 6-4, 259-pounds. His speed score, burst score, and agility score are all above the 70th-percentile. Like Smith, Thomas flashed his talent as a rookie with 36 receptions for 333 yards. He had a 90-percent true catch rate and was seventh among tight ends in average target separation. Greg Olsen has battled injuries in each of the last two seasons. If he makes it a third, Thomas could be a breakout star.
11:37 pm 17/18 Turn
While I normally wouldn’t condone taking four tight ends, I made the decision to draft Darren Waller in the 17th round. Injuries and suspensions have derailed the first three seasons of the convertible wideout’s career. At 6-6, 255-pounds Waller possesses freakish athleticism. His 4.46 40-yard dash time translates to a 99th-percentile speed score. His burst score, agility score, and catch radius are all above the 80th-percentile. With a limited group of established pass-catchers outside of new-comer Antonio Brown, there is opportunity for Waller to emerge as a top target in the Oakland passing attack.
At 18.02 I couldn’t pass up on Rams RB Malcolm Brown. If Gurley’s knee proves to be faulty, Brown will see a large share of the LA backfield snaps. With a significant role in one of the most running back-friendly offenses, Brown would be a sure-fire fantasy asset.
Thursday 12:55 am – The Final Four
It has been a couple days since I have had the chance to update the blog. During that time, I made my final four picks as my league’s SFB9 draft came to an end. With pick 19.11 I selected boom-bust Seattle WR David Moore. Moore is an elite athlete with a 127.7 (95th-percentile) SPARQ-x Score, 108.7 (88th-percentile) Speed Score and a Breakout Age of 19.6 (75th-percentile). He had three top-24 WR finishes in 2018 but faces competition from rookie D.K. Metcalf in 2019. But with Metcalf in need of refinement, Moore could make an early impact, particularly on deep routes. Moore had an 8.7 (No. 5) Target Quality Rating in 2018, a metric that puts a premium on deep, catchable targets. He also had a 19.1-percent (No. 36) Red Zone Target Share and 30.6-percent (No. 24) End Zone Target Share.
With my next pick (20.02), I went with another high-upside WR in Keelan Cole. Cole was a guy I really liked heading into 2018, but poor quarterback play hindered his fantasy production. Going back to his 2017 rookie season, Cole led the Jaguars with 748 receiving yards while averaging 17.8 yards per reception. With Nick Foles now in the picture and Donte Moncrief out, Cole is once again a top late-round breakout candidate.
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In the 21st round, I went with one of my favorite dynasty stashes, Bucs WR Justin Watson. Watson is in good position to earn the WR3 role in Tampa Bay with just former first round bust Breshad Perriman as competition. Watson is an elite athlete at 6-3, 215-pounds. He sports a 107.2 (87th-percentile) speed score and a 130.0 (88th-percentile) burst score. In an offense that will be prolific in 2019, Watson is a steal this late.
With my final pick in SFB9, I went with Redskins quarterback Case Keenum. If I have any regrets about this draft it is waiting too long to select my QB3. I just could never press the button when there were still so many talented RBs and WRs on the board. Then, when the Herndon suspension came down, it threw off my TE strategy forcing me to take a few swings there. But, if Keenum happens to win the job in Washington, I’m comfortable with him as my third option. If it goes to Haskins, then I can pivot to Titans backup Ryan Tannehill. With Marcus Mariota‘s long injury history, there is a good chance Tannehill sees a couple starts in 2019.
Overall I am happy with my team. I have a solid starting core at QB, RB, and WR, with high-upside plays at all four positions. This is the beginning of a SFB9 championship run. Thank you to everyone who has followed along throughout the draft and good luck to my competitors.
