9 Gross Running Backs You Need To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football
9 Forgotten Running Backs With BIG Upside In 2023 Fantasy Football
It’s that time of year again. Training camp is underway and so are the 2023 fantasy football drafts. With that comes hype train after hype train. We’ve all seen it. Heck, we’ve all participated in hyping up “our guys.” But some players get lost in all the excitement. You know who I’m talking about. The guys that are ignored in the late rounds of drafts where everyone is trying to find the next breakout sleeper with “league-winner” upside. In between these sexy breakout candidates, though, are some hidden gems. They’re not as clean and pretty, you may even call them gross, but they have upside, too. These eight running backs are not currently at the top of the depth chart, but they each have a path to getting there. And if they do, they will make a significant impact on your 2023 season.
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Samaje Perine, Broncos
Samaje Perine proved to be one of fantasy football’s top handcuffs in 2022 when he was forced to step in for an injured Joe Mixon. With Mixon sidelined from Weeks 11-13, Perine delivered finishes of the RB2, the RB10, and the RB3. He averaged 24 fantasy points per game over that stretch. While he was limited to backup duties for the other 15 weeks, Perine still managed to crack the top-12 in fantasy points per opportunity (0.97). He was an effective receiver as well, ranking inside the top-15 in yards per route and yards per reception (PlayerProfiler.com).
It was enough to grab the attention of the Denver Broncos who signed Perine as an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Perine is expected to lead the Broncos backfield for as long as injured starter Javonte Williams is out. While there have been positive reports that Williams will he ready for the start of the season, the situation is reminiscent of J.K. Dobbins a year ago. Like Dobbins, Williams tore multiple ligaments in his knee. Dobbins was also rumored to be fine to start the season, but he was never up to full speed until Week 14 and even then only hit a 50% snap share once. Every injury is different and every recovery is different, but common sense tells us Williams is a long shot to be back to his bell cow role at any point in 2023, never mind Week 1.
That opens the door for Samaje Perine to take a significant workload. He’ll be doing it in what looks to be a much improved Broncos offense. Not only is Nathaniel Hackett no longer the head coach, but the team brought in Sean Payton to help turn the program around and regain functionality to the offense. Perhaps more importantly, is the upgrades to the offensive line. Denver made major splashes in free agency by signing tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers. They will also be getting their starting tackle Garrett Boles back after he missed nearly all of last season with a broken leg.
Everything points to Samaje Perine having a significant opportunity share in 2023. With an ADP outside the top-100 picks, he’s an excellent value for any fantasy football drafter. He should be a top target for anyone who decides to take the Zero RB approach.
Damien Harris, Bills
Once upon a time, Damien Harris was a breakout star who rushed for a league-leading 15 touchdowns. However, after an injury plagued 2022 season and the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson, Harris has experienced quite the fall from grace. Harris left New England this offseason and signed a one-year, $1.8 million contract with the Bills. He is expected to compete with Latavius Murray for early-down work and red zone touches while playing compliment to James Cook.
Harris joins a Bills offense that is set up perfectly for him to succeed. Buffalo was a top-5 scoring unit in both 2021 and 2022 with little reason to believe they won’t be highly ranked again in 2023. As a touchdown scoring specialist, that plays right into Harris’ hands. Before you start screaming about quarterback Josh Allen’s tendency to vulture touchdowns at the goal line, hear me out. Yes, this is a concern and it will cap Harris’ touchdown ceiling to a degree.
However, the Bills have said numerous times this offseason that they want to start pulling back on Allen’s designed runs and protect his body a bit better for the long run. Allen has taken a number of hard hits over the years and it’s starting to take its toll. That means, there could be more opportunities for a 216 lb running back with 20 rushing touchdowns in three years like Harris to see more goal line and short yardage opportunities.
Even outside of the red zone, Harris could lead the Bills in carries. For starters, he is seven years younger than Murray (33) so that should be little contest there. And James Cook has never been known to be an efficient runner between the tackles even going back to his Georgia days. In fact, Cook maxed out at 113 carries in college and was limited to just 91 as a rookie. He benefited from light boxes in 2022 and won’t get that same luxury in 2023 if his role expands beyond the third down and change-of-pace one he saw a year ago.
That brings us right back to Harris who is nearly 20 lbs heavier and ready to take on the additional running back carries that are expected to come from the Bills offense this season. That’s because, not only do the Bills want Allen to run less, it’s rumored they want him to attempt fewer passes as well. The theory is, putting a little bit less on his plate could help he and the offense sustain their high performance all the way through the end of the season rather than falling off like they have in years past. Some evidence of this is the team moving away from the undersized Devin Singletary and bringing in two big backs who can handle a more traditional running back workload.
Rumors and theories aside, things are lined up nicely for Damien Harris to have a bounce-back season in Buffalo. With an ADP in the double-digit rounds, it won’t cost you much to find out.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
It wasn’t long ago that Elijah Mitchell was regarded as one of the better running backs in the NFL. He came out of nowhere as a sixth round rookie in 2021 to take over the 49ers backfield and average 15 fantasy points per game. Since then, though, numerous injuries and a trade for Christian McCaffrey has made Mitchell an afterthought in fantasy football drafts. Despite all that, there is good reason to keep Mitchell on your radar.
He enters the 2023 season as the clear handcuff to McCaffrey. He even showed he could provide some stand-alone value alongside a healthy CMC. In six games that the two played together last season (including playoffs), Mitchell averaged 11 touches per game. Four of those were regular season games, three of which resulted in top-36 performances.
But let’s be real, while it’s nice to know we can start him in the flex in a few desperate spots, that’s not why we’re drafting Mitchell. We are drafting him for the massive contingent upside that he brings in the case of a McCaffrey injury. McCaffrey is no stranger to the injury report. He missed 23 games with five separate injuries between 2020-2021. He managed to stay healthy in 2022, but he’s 27 years old and undersized. There’s a real chance the injury bug comes back around in 2023.
If that happens, Mitchell will be in line for a significant workload. We already know he can produce at a high level in this offense based on his rookie season performance. He is an explosive runner with a knack for the big run. He’s in a running back friendly scheme with a lot of touchdown upside. With an ADP in the 11th round, it doesn’t cost much to buy this lottery ticket. The payoff could be huge.
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Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
Poor Tyler Allgeier. He did nothing but exceed expectations as a fifth round rookie, only to be squashed by the incoming Bijan Robinson. Allgeier really came on strong at the end of last season. He averaged 96 rushing yards per game from Week 13 onward while averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry over that stretch. He helped fantasy managers win championships with three top-10 performances in the fantasy playoffs with a finish no worse than RB16 in the final four weeks. Allgeier ended the year with 1,035 rushing yards. He proved to be one of the better tackle breakers in the league, with the No. 12 most evaded tackles and top-15 in evaded tackles per touch. He was also top-12 in most runs of 15 yards or more (PlayerProfiler).
So while we know he will be relegated to mop up duty now that King Robinson is in town, Allgeier will be one of the best handcuff running backs in all of fantasy football. The Falcons are committed to a run-heavy scheme and the running game is the strength of the offense. Whoever is atop the depth chart is going to see a heavy workload. We know Allgeier can handle the volume and we know he can be productive with that volume. If anything happens to Bijan, Allgeier becomes an instant RB2. For teams that go light at the running back position early in their drafts, Allgeier presents a high-upside option in the double-digit rounds as one of the true elite handcuffs in fantasy football.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
In two seasons in the NFL, Chuba Hubbard has proven to be a quality running back, particularly in spot starts. He started 10 games in 2021 and managed five top-24 performances while sharing a backfield. He finished with 612 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 172 carries. After the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey during the 2022 season, Hubbard was again productive while operating behind D’Onta Foreman. He played well enough to eat into Foreman’s workload more and more as the season went along, despite Foreman having several 100-yard outings. Hubbard maintained a 4.9 yards per carry average while ranking sixth in yards per touch (5.8). He also had a respectable 2.81 yards created per touch which ranked 26th among running backs (PlayerProfiler).
Hubbard’s best performance came against the Lions in Week 16 when he totaled 125 yards on just 12 carries. He also scored as a top-10 fantasy running back in Week 14 against the Seahawks when he had 99 yards from scrimmage, three receptions, and a touchdown on just a 39% snap share.
The point is, despite the free agent signing of Miles Sanders, Hubbard has a shot to play a much bigger role than anticipated. After all, Sanders hasn’t exactly been the most efficient running back in recent years. He leaned on a dominant Eagles offense last season to have his best year yet, but the talent level around him in Carolina will be a fraction of what he had in Philly. That could open the door for Hubbard to play more than expected. Even if not, Hubbard has proven to be a quality option when called upon and doesn’t need a bellcow role to get it done. In the event of a Sanders injury, Hubbard can absolutely get you some productive weeks.
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Roschon Johnson, Bears
The Bears drafted Roshcon Johnson in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson spent most of his college career in the shadow of Bijan Robinson, but he flashed an exceptional skill set when given opportunity. At Texas, Johnson showed excellent vision, patience, and instincts as a runner. He’s a big back at 6-0, 219 lbs who runs with a dangerous mix of power and finesse. Johnson has the athleticism to be a lead back in the NFL. Even in a part time role, Johnson averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last two seasons at Texas for a combined 1,123 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Where he really gets the edge in the Bears backfield, though, is with his receiving skills. Because he was behind Robinson, the numbers don’t accurately reflect his true talent in this area of the game, but Johnson proved to be a natural receiver when given the chance. He caught 25 passes over his last two seasons and had 23 as a true freshman. In a backfield where he’s competing with two backs who are clearly not pass catchers, this gives Johnson a real edge for playing time. Scouts will agree that Johnson is one of the better pass-blocking running backs to enter the NFL in recent seasons which will make his case for a third-down role that much stronger.
If Johnson can capture a significant role on passing downs, that will really open up his ceiling from a fantasy football standpoint. Let’s say Khalil Herbert is the RB1 but goes down with an injury, Johnson could presumably take on 60% of Herbert’s rush attempts on top of his third down role. In that case, he would become a weekly starter in fantasy lineups. And who’s to say Johnson doesn’t overtake Herbert all together? After all, Herbert has only shown us flashes in small samples and he has a sixth round pick drafted by the previous regime. There is absolutely a world where Johnson takes the RB1 job outright. In that case, it’s wheels up and he becomes one of the great steals of the 2023 fantasy football season.
Zamir White, Raiders
Zamir White was an impressive prospect coming out of Georgia. He led the Bulldogs in rushing in each of his final two seasons despite sharing a backfield with James Cook. The former five-star recruit tested with excellent size-adjusted speed and burst at the NFL Combine. The Raiders drafted him in the fourth round but used him sparingly as a rookie. Instead, he sat behind Josh Jacobs during his breakout campaign in which he touched the ball nearly 400 times. It’s hard to imagine Jacobs being able to hold up for another season with that level of workload. If he is forced to miss any time, it would be Zamir White taking the majority of the early down work. He wouldn’t be the bellcow that Jacobs has been, but White would project to about 15 carries per game while Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden handled the passing game.
White is a good athlete at 6-0, 214 lbs. He has a downhill running style with good vision and explosion. If forced into a starting role, he would be a viable RB2/RB3 in fantasy football.
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles
I liked Kenneth Gainwell a lot coming into last season. I thought he had a chance to take on a significant role as the passing downs back In Philadelphia. It didn’t quite work out that way, but he showed us enough to think he can play a big part of the Eagles backfield in 2023 despite the other additions they made at the position. At 5-8, 201 lbs, he’s big enough to be more than just a satellite back. Remember, he ran for over 1,400 yards in 2019 at Memphis while commanding over 60 targets. He’s been efficient in his limited chances in the NFL, averaging over four yards per carry in each season and ranking No.7 in fantasy points per touch in 2022.
Gainwell’s usage was cranked up in the playoffs when he had back-to-back games with double-digit carries and ended the postseason with 33 attempts and 181 rushing yards (5.5 YPC).
Gainwell has been good when given opportunity. Unfortunately, the volume to this point in his career hasn’t been enough to be relevant in fantasy football. But if Penny and Swift battle more injuries—neither has been the epitome of health in their careers—Gainwell could really be something in fantasy football. On a limited basis, Gainwell has managed to finish No.7 and No.5 in fantasy points per opportunity thus far in his career. There is absolutely a world where the coaches trust him more than the other running backs or he is the only healthy one for a significant portion of the season and he winds up a weekly starter in our lineups.
DeWayne McBride, Vikings
When the Vikings drafted DeWayne McBride in the seventh round, they were adding him to a depth chart that was topped by Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook. Just a few months later, Cook is out and Alexander Mattison is the presumed starter in Minnesota. But while the fantasy community is crowning Mattison the next bellcow, I’m pressing the button on McBride at the end of my drafts.
Call me a skeptic, but I don’t believe Mattison is a lock to just slide into the Cook role uncontested. He’s a career backup with no standout athletic traits. And sure, he’s been a high volume guy in spot starts over the years, but that was in the Mike Zimmer era. Mattison is the prototypical Zimmer running back—a big grinder who gets what’s blocked and nothing more. This is a guy who has averaged under four yards per carry in each of the last two seasons and has just five runs reach 15 yards on his last 208 attempts (2.4%).
That opens the door for someone like DeWayne McBride to push for carries. McBride could genuinely be the best pure runner on the Vikings roster. Out of all the running backs who were drafted in 2023, it’s McBride who ran for the most yards last season. He had a career average of 7.4 yards during his time at UAB. McBride is a power back like Mattison who runs with good vision and adds some quickness and agility to make defenders miss in the open field.
Right now, the top spot in Minnesota is Mattison’s to lose. But, there’s no reason to think that McBride can’t push him out of that job at some point this season. In that case, McBride would offer tremendous value as the early downs back in one of the NFL’s better offenses. The other route to that job is through a Mattison injury. The most carries Mattison has ever seen in a season is 134. He could be asked to double that in 2023. If his body breaks down with the added workload, McBride is the only other back on the Vikings roster who fits the mold of an early down grinder.
The point is, there are multiple paths to a fantasy relevant season for DeWayne McBride. It’s hard to find that, when you get into the greater depths of fantasy drafts. His current ADP on Underdog is in the 18th round. You’re not finding better value than that.
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