2023 NFL Draft Reaction: How Round 1 Impacts Your Dynasty Teams
Round 1 has come and gone! And boy was it a good one. The first night of the NFL Draft rarely disappoints, but 2023 seems particularly impactful for dynasty fantasy football. There were a ton of surprises, but also a lot of things we expected to happen. The best players on our board were confirmed by the NFL, with the exception of Will Levis. But now that we know the landing spots and draft capital, we can start to formulate an accurate projection for the short and long-term outlook of these players. Let’s start at the top.
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1.01 Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
The Panthers got their guy. After it appeared C.J. Stroud would be the pick for a while, the last two weeks leading into the draft made it clear that Bryce Young was going No. 1. It’s all but certain he will be the Week 1 starter, even with veteran Andy Dalton on the roster. He’s set up with a quality offensive coaching staff and supported by an ascending defense. However, the Panthers offense is void of receiving talent. That could make things difficult for Young in year one.
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1.02 C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
With Bryce Young off the board at 1, the Panthers settled for Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. Stroud enters a quarterback room that presents Davis Mills as its best competition. That means, it’s likely we see Stroud early on, perhaps even starting Week 1. Stroud is thought of as the safest quarterback in the 2023 class. He has all the tools to be a quality starter in the NFL. He’s got the requisite size, arm strength, and is incredibly accurate. He also has some athleticism which we may get to see him utilize more than he did at Ohio State. Unfortunately for Stroud, though, the Texans are looking pretty ugly as far as weapons for their new quarterback. Nico Collins is tracking as the top wideout. But with some added pieces around him, Stroud can become the franchise quarterback that Houston has been longing for since its inception.
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1.04 Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
After burning down Lucas Oil Stadium at the NFL Combine, the Colts called up Anthony Richardson to bring him back to Indy as the No. 4 pick. Richardson is quite literally the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the NFL. He is a playmaker with his legs who has massive rushing yardage and touchdown upside. He also has the arm to make big time throws down the field or in tight windows. His accuracy is inconsistent, but a lot of that can be attributed to poor mechanics and footwork. With some coaching, those issues can be cleaned up considerably. Richardson’s pocket presence is underrated and could be a strength at the next level. Richardson is far from a sure-fire prospect, but he has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in the 2023 class. He also has the best supporting cast around him with Michael Pittman out wide and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Richardson will lean a lot on the run game early in his career, both by handing the ball to JT and utilizing his own legs. That will give him time to work out the kinks in his passing game. Once that happens, look out.
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1.08 Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
Right when we thought the NFL was realizing that drafting a running back this early was suboptimal, the Falcons come out and take Bijan Robinson in the top-10. While it was a horrible pick from a real life team-building perspective, it doesn’t take away anything from Robinson for our purposes. He is going to be an absolute stud in fantasy football. He got incredible draft capital to an ascending offense on a run-first team. When a team takes a running back this early, they do it because they believe he is special. They have a plan for him. The Falcons will utilize Bijan in an all-purpose role, giving him a ton of carries and plenty of targets. As a rookie, he will have to deal with last year’s breakout running back Tyler Allgeier taking a few carries and we’ll likely see Cordarrelle Patterson still involved as a pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. It’s safe to project Robinson for upwards of 1,000 rushing yards and close to 50 receptions in his first season.
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1.12 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
The Lions shocked the world when they took Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick. They had the worst draft from a real life perspective. For fantasy football purposes, however, we have to love this for Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming off the board this high ensures a significant role from day one in Detroit. The team clearly has a plan for him. The fears with Gibbs coming into the draft were that teams may not view him as an all-purpose running back, instead locking him into more of a specialist role. That went out the window when he was drafted this early. We can anticipate heavy usage in the Lions backfield. He will certainly take the “lion’s share” of the receiving work, while splitting carries with free agent signee David Montgomery. At this point, D’Andre Swift remains on the roster. It’s expected he will be traded which would insulate our projected role for Gibbs. Remember, this Lions offense was one of the best fantasy producing units in the league in 2022. We should only expect that to go up from here. There is now a much stronger argument to be made that Gibbs is the 1.02 in single quarterback dynasty rookie drafts than there was before the draft. He got the draft capital. He got the role. And he got the offense. Wheels up.
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1.20 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
We all knew going into the draft that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best wide receiver in the 2023 class. The Seahawks agreed and made him the first wideout off the board. The pick makes a ton of sense for Seattle. If they’re going to commit to building around Geno Smith—even for the short-term—they might as well set him up for success. Adding another weapon like JSN will surely help the cause. JSN joins a talented receiving corps that already includes D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf will continue to be the outside x-receiver while Lockett is the versatile inside-outside playmaker who can threaten defenses deep and after the catch. Where Smith-Njigba fits in, will be a mix of slot and flanker. He will man the middle of the field, operating mostly in the short and intermediate areas. It’s difficult to project a huge target share for his rookie season given the two veteran studs that are already there and the run-friendly nature of the Seattle offense, but the long-term outlook is excellent. This is a team that routinely targets their top-two receivers at a high volume. Eventually, the path will clear for him to take full advantage. He will develop into a Keenan Allen/Amon-Ra St. Brown-like target magnet.
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1.21 Zay Flowers. WR, Ravens
Zay Flowers was the second wide receiver off the board on draft night. On the day the Ravens (finally) paid Lamar Jackson, they also gave him a new playmaker. Jackson is getting a versatile weapon who can play both outside and in the slot despite his undersized frame. Flowers will be the chess piece that this offense has been in need of for a long time. The Ravens are now tee’d up with a receiver room of Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, and Flowers, not to mention one of the league’s best tight ends. While that’s exciting for fans of the team, it could mean we have to be patient with Flowers early on. He will certainly be behind Mark Andrews in targets and will have to compete with both Bateman and OBJ for next in line. The good news is, everything the Ravens have done this offseason indicates they are moving away from their old run-first, conservative approach on offense. They brought in a new, more modern minded offensive coordinator and have now added two stud pass catchers, on top of locking in their quarterback for the next five years. So while the target competition will be fierce, there will be more passes to go around. That opens the door for Flowers to have an Elijah Moore-like rookie season.
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1.22 Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
One of the best prospective landing spots for a wide receiver in this year’s draft was the Chargers. The lucky selection to be paired with Justin Herbert is TCU’s Quentin Johnston. While some fantasy gamers are worried he could be the next failed TCU wide receiver, he is certainly set up for the best chance at success. Johnston joins a receiver room that already consists of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. However, both have struggled with injuries in recent seasons and likely won’t be with the team beyond 2024. That means Johnston is the chosen one to be the next top weapon for Herbert. He is a big-bodied wide receiver who dominates after the catch with impressive agility and acceleration. He gives the Chargers a weapon along the boundary opposite Williams. The draft stock and landing spot ensure Johnston as a worthy first round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
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1.23 Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
There was some talk early in the process that Jordan Addison could be the first wide receiver drafted. But after a disappointing NFL Combine and weighing in at 173 lbs, Addison winds up as the No. 4 receiver off the board. However, the consolation prize of landing in the Minnesota offense is quite exciting. Sure, he will never be the alpha in that offense, but Addison wasn’t going to be that guy no matter where he went. Instead, he’s the perfect second option opposite a stud like Justin Jefferson. One of the things we love most about the Vikings offense from a fantasy football standpoint, is that their target shares are routinely consolidated and predictable. It’s Jefferson, it’s Addison, and it’s Hockenson. That’s it. For that reason, Addison could have the biggest impact as a rookie among the first round wide receivers.
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1.25 Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
Many had Dalton Kincaid as the best tight end in the class coming into draft night. It turned out that Kincaid was the only one at the position to find first round capital. Not only that, but he landed in a dream offense with Josh Allen and the Bills. The theme of the offseason for Buffalo is that the team desperately needed to add pass-catchers to complement Stefon Diggs and give Allen another weapon to work with. While most thought it would be a wide receiver, Kincaid will do the trick. With that said, we have to be cautious about taking him too early in our rookie drafts. He’s still a tight end and we know historically tight ends take some time to get acclimated to the NFL before breaking out. Let’s not forget, the Bills still have a quality player at the position in Dawson Knox who isn’t just going to slide over and let the rookie take his job. So while this is a great long-term addition for the Bills and absolutely locks Kincaid in as the TE1 of the class, we still have to keep our short-term expectations in check.
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