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We’re now in a shaky part of the regular season, as big names are rested for the postseason and unknown variables come into play. This Thursday, the Dallas Cowboys (11-4) take on the Tennessee Titans (7-8) in Nashville.
Although both squads have winning records ATS, the Titans represent one of those volatile variables, with QB Ryan Tannehill out for the season and rookie Malik Willis filling in under center. Not much analysis is necessary to determine that Dallas is superior in this matchup. However, a glaring discrepancy between each offensive unit is performance on late downs.
Dating back to Malik Willis’ first start in Week 8, it’s evident he’s just not able to extend drives on late downs (up/right is good). Each defense ranks amongst the NFL’s best on 3rd down. However, their gap on offense is significant, albeit a small sample size.
Consider even further that the Titans hold PFF’s worst pass blocking grade (52.7), and they’re going up against the second-ranked Dallas pass rush (81).. How will you move the chains when everyone knows you’re going to throw the football?
Pass Catchers
The Titans allow 20.8 PPG to QB’s, which ranks third in the NFL. Likewise, quarterbacks average a league-high 39 pass attempts per contest. This is certainly encouraging for Dak Prescott & company, but if you’re interested in any of his weapons, it’s important to hedge the quality matchup vs Tennessee’s pass funnel defense with a potential blowout/subsequent game script.
Commonalities: These units have given up the most touchdowns to wideouts, according to The Edge. Diving even deeper, TEN (18.6) and DAL (17.7) are top-three in fantasy PPG allowed to receivers lined up out wide.
WRs Robert Woods and Treylon Burks accounted for 7 of the team’s 20 targets last week vs Houston. They also recorded the most snaps out wide (PFF). If you’re prone to risk, and desire stacking a Titan in DFS lineups, one of those receivers could be your play.
WR CeeDee Lamb is the auto-fantasy #1 here. However, don’t be so fast to pass up Dalton Schultz.
TE’s average north of 8 targets / 68 yards per game vs TEN, top-two in the league for each this season (The Edge). Schultz leads all Cowboys with 14 red zone targets and hasn’t caught a touchdown since Thanksgiving. These stats compile to make a nice portfolio for the franchise-tagged Schultz on a short week. Depending on the cost of Lamb, he could be the value play within this pass attack.
Macro Stuff
This chart takes a look at offensive EPA/rush (x) and defensive EPA/rush (y). Farther to the right means better offensive rush attack, downward means better rush defense, so the sweet spot for both is the bottom-right quadrant. DAL is an efficient rushing offense, but they’re facing an efficient run defense in TEN.
The betting markets, like most of us, envision a double-digit victory for the Cowboys. Big leads are held (on a stable-basis), with an efficient run game in order to burn clock. It’ll be interesting if DAL snags a big lead early, and if they’re efficient moving the chains on the ground.. primarily during the 4th quarter.
It’s evident the Titans still ride RB Derrick Henry in matchups without Tannehill. According to PFF, Henry’s finished in the Top-10 at his position in each of the last three games. The effects of a short week remain to be seen, but the Titans’ bruiser is scary-productive when given touches.
Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!
