Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100
Week 12 was chaotic – both for this article and the college football landscape. For the article, it was the worst week of the season. Frustrated, embarrassed – you name it, I probably felt it last weekend. As for the college football chaos, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Ole Miss ruined any outside shot they had at the College Football Playoff. None of the top four teams were impressive last week, either. The uncertainty makes the Week 13 college football weekend just that more exciting as we close the regular season with rivalry weekend. Here are my favorite Week 13 college football plays.
HEAD ON OVER TO BETUS AND USE PROMO CODE YARDSPER FOR A 125% DEPOSIT BONUS. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER. Bets were placed between Monday November 21st and Wednesday November 23rd.
Week 12: 1-8 (-7.7 units)
YTD: 45-60-2 (-19.4 units)
Mississippi State (7-4) vs. #20 Ole Miss (8-3) (Ole Miss -3; O/U 59)*
Ole Miss ML (-130)
Under 59 (-110)
* Game on Thursday, November 24th
Despite rumors Lane Kiffin is bouncing from Oxford to Auburn, he’s had Mike Leach’s number in this short series. Ole Miss has won each of the last two years since the respective coaches took over the program. And while it’s a small line, neither team has been great at covering. However, Ole Miss has handled business under Lane Kiffin in Oxford, winning 14 of 18 and a perfect 13-0 as a home favorite. As a road underdog, Mississippi State is just 3-6 under Mike Leach.
The Rebels surrender just 216.1 passing yards per game. Mississippi State is extremely one-dimensional, ranking 9th nationally in passing yards (321.2 YPG) and second-to-last in rushing (77.2 YPG). The passing/rushing touchdown ratio for Mississippi State is 3/1. The under has cashed in each of Mississippi State’s four road contests this year with the totals averaging under 46 points per game. Mississippi State is averaging just 19.5 points per game on the road this season. You’d have to go back to 2016 to see these two teams hit 59 points, also the last time the over cashed in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss win’s their third straight Egg Bowl as the under cashes on Thanksgiving.
North Carolina State (7-4) vs. #17 North Carolina (9-2) (North Carolina -6.5; O/U 56)*
North Carolina -6.5 (-110)
* Game on Friday November 25th
Since Mack Brown has returned to Chapel Hill in 2019, his team has performed well against the Wolfpack. The Tar Heels are 3-0 ATS and won two of three. North Carolina State has failed to cover in any of their four road contests this season, and will enter enemy territory without Devin Leary. They are 2-3 in games without Leary. In that five-game span, the Wolfpack quarterbacks have combined for 92/168 passing (54.8%), 1,015 passing yards (6.04 YPA), eight touchdowns and two interceptions. It doesn’t help NC State ranks 11th in the ACC in rushing yards and 13th in rushing touchdowns (seven). Even with North Carolina’s defense ranking so poorly, the Wolfpack have scored just 91-points in that five game span (18.2 PPG) without Leary.
For the Tar Heels, freshman Drake Maye ranks third in both yards (3,614) and passing touchdowns (34). While NC State leads the conference with 16 interceptions on defense, Maye has just four on the season. He’s the catalyst of this offense, and I would expect a strong bounce back performance after the stinker against Georgia Tech last week. Tar Heels continue to roll over the Wolfpack on Black Friday.
West Virginia (4-7) vs. Oklahoma State (7-4) (Oklahoma State -8.5; O/U 64)
Under 64 (-110)
Oklahoma State’s offense has fallen apart the last four weeks. The Cowboys have scored just 49-points since knocking off Texas in late October (12.3 PPG). These are two of the three lowest scoring offenses in Big 12 conference play, with only Iowa State worse. Neil Brown and the Mountaineers have struggled to score in Stillwater, accounting for just 29 points over three years. The under hit in each of those contests, averaging just 33.3 PPG for the game. As a road underdog with the Mountaineers, the under is 11-4-1 (73.3%) with Neil Brown. I’m banking on that trend continuing in this Week 13 college football regular season finale.
#3 Michigan (11-0) vs. #2 Ohio State (11-0) (Ohio State -7.5; O/U 56)
Over 56 (-110)
No game this college football season has more consequence than Michigan/Ohio State in the last week of the season. Both teams will be highly favored in the Big Ten Championship, almost guaranteeing a spot in the College Football Playoff. The loser, on the other hand, will be sweating it out for a few weeks hoping for chaos. But from a betting perspective in this game, my eyes are solely focused on the over.
The over has hit in nine of the last ten meetings between these schools. And while both teams rank inside the top-10 in scoring defense, one team has scored at least 40-points in seven of the last ten matchups. Enter two Heisman hopefuls in Michigan’s Blake Corum and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and we should be in store for a high scoring affair. Sit back, relax, and enjoy each team lighting up the scoreboard in Columbus.
Western Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida Atlantic (5-6) (Western Kentucky -8; O/U 61)
Under 61 (-110) – 2 units
One of my favorite trends in all of college football betting: Florida Atlantic unders. If you’ve been reading these since the start of the season, I’ve been playing the under in most FAU home games. But if you haven’t been following along: since Willie Taggart took over the FAU job, the under is 12-3 in home games (80%) and a perfect 5-0 this year. When FAU is an underdog, the under is 9-1. And in this spot under Tyson Helton, the under is 8-2 when the Hilltoppers are road favorites. Boy I love this spot. The under is the play in Boca Raton for the Week 13 college football finale.
#25 Louisville (7-4) vs. Kentucky (6-5) (Kentucky -3; O/U 43)
Louisville +3 (-110)
Regardless of Louisville being ranked by the playoff committee this week, I have no idea why the Cardinals are underdogs. Kentucky has lost five of their last seven, scoring just 16.3 PPG in that span. Louisville’s defense has generated 40 sacks, tied for the national lead with Liberty; Kentucky has allowed the 5th-most sacks nationally (41). Louisville ranks 6th in defensive interceptions with 16; Will Levis has six interceptions in his last five games with Kentucky. Louisville has won four of the last five in Lexington. I think the Cards win this outright, but will take the points at +3 in the Governor’s Cup.
Troy (9-2) vs. Arkansas State (3-8) (Troy -13.5; O/U 46)
Troy -13.5 (-110)
Both teams have been great against the spread this season; Troy is 8-3 ATS while Arkansas State is 7-4, respectively. However, both teams have found success covering on the road. Troy is a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road, while Arkansas State is 5-1. The road team has covered in five of the last seven. Arkansas State has failed to cover this season as a home dog (0-2).
For Troy, a win secures the South Belt West where they play the winner of James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Troy has a top-10 scoring defense (16.6 PPG), and since their loss to Appalachian State in September, they’re allowing just 11.7 PPG in conference play. Arkansas State is the worst at moving the ball in the Sun Belt (319.8 YPG). And while the bulk of those yards are through the air, Troy ranks second in the conference and allows under 200 passing yards per game. I believe Troy runs away with this one in to close Sun Belt play.
#5 LSU (9-2) vs. Texas A&M (4-7) (LSU -10; O/U 47.5)
LSU -10 (-115)
These two teams are going in complete opposite directions. Texas A&M is struggling to score against UMass in front of an empty stadium, while LSU is a week away from the SEC Championship against Georgia. Brian Kelly handed the laughing stock of the country among SEC coaches to Jimbo Fisher, who will fail to go bowling in his fifth season at the school for back-to-back seasons. Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, LSU is a perfect 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU against the Aggies. The Aggie faithful want this nightmare season to be over, and they get their wish this weekend. Geaux Tigers in this Week 13 college football blowout.
#10 Tennessee (9-2) vs. Vanderbilt (5-6) (Tennessee -14; O/U 66.5)
Vanderbilt +14 (-110)
I hate this for Tennessee. They had College Football Playoff aspirations, despite a loss to Georgia. And it all came crumbling down to…South Carolina? To make matters worse, Hendon Hooker tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. Now they head to Nashville to take on their in-state rival
Vanderbilt has covered in eight of the last ten in the series. Plus, they could potentially go to a bowl game with a win despite being 14-point underdogs. I’m not sure they get the win, but I think they keep it within the number.
#15 Notre Dame (8-3) vs. #6 USC (10-1) (USC -5; O/U 64.5)
Notre Dame +5(-110)
While both coaches are in their first year at their respective schools, Notre Dame has won five of the last six against the Trojans. Notre Dame has been covering machines on the road, including 3-0 ATS in their true road games this year.
One of USC’s strengths this year has been dominating the turnover margin; they lead the country with a +21 margin, thanks in part to committing only four turnovers. Their defense has caused 18 interceptions. The only issue, Drew Pyne has thrown an interception on just 2.2% of his pass attempts this year for the Irish. USC may win, but I think Notre Dame keeps this one close enough to give the Trojans a scare.
Kansas (6-5) vs. #12 Kansas State (Kansas State -12; O/U 62.5)
Over 62.5 (-110)
We close the best week of the college football season with an over. Like the FAU under at home, I love Kansas road overs. In Kansas road games under Lance Leipold, the over is 10-1. In nine of the 11 games, one team has scored over 40-points. And that team will likely be Kansas State; under Chris Klieman, Kansas State has averaged 42.7 PPG against the Jayhawks. Kansas averages 7.2 YPP, tied for the third best mark in the country. Jayhawks’ quarterback Jalon Daniels returned last week, despite struggling in the loss to Texas. I expect a high scoring game in little Manhattan.
Whether the ‘Week 13 College Football Bets’ article is your first time reading my post, or you’ve been along for the ride since Week 0, I appreciate the support. Did I touch on your favorite game of the week? Let me know on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_ for more football content!
