Week 15 Monday and Tuesday Draftkings Values
Keeping up with the everchanging week 15 slate has been a brutal go. Playoff season is underway, and fantasy owners all over the world find themselves scrambling just to fill completelineups. Weekly staples that aided teams’ playoff hopes are now dropping like flies. On the bright side, uncertainty regarding player availability is *somewhat* being countered by parody across the NFL. This not only makes for competitive matchups we can look forward to heading into the final weeks of the regular season, but it also provides opportunities to take advantage of the “next man up” concept in fantasy formats.There’s great value this week if you’re willing to bring out your inner “Adam Schefter”- keeping up to date with everlasting player updates, along with analyzing analytical trends andmatchups. Here are a few of my insights with the remaining Monday/Tuesday DFS slate, given those prior constraints.
Vikings
K. Cousins | $5,900 | DK QB 4
J. Jefferson | $8,000 | DK WR 2
K. Osborn | $4,200 | DK WR 11
T. Conklin | $4,000 | DK TE 2
Bears
J. Fields | $5,200 | DK QB 6
D. Mooney | $5,000 | DK WR 9
C. Kmet | $3,200 | DK TE 6
Vikings wideout Adam Thielen is questionable for MNF in Chicago (ankle). There will be plenty of spots for production in the top-heavy target share offense that is Minnesota if Thielen doesn’t suit up. Using data from Pro Football Focus, we can see the general usage/opportunities among Vikings pass catchers since week 9, with the dashed segments making up production since Thielen went down in week 13. K.J. Osborn and Tight End Tyler Conklin have a combined 26 targets since Thielen’s injuryin Detroit, appearing to make up the bulk of his absence in Minnesota’s passing game.
As if the Bears matchup against Minnesota’s air attack couldn’t be any more of an analytical mismatch– here we have Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune giving us the laundry list that is Chicago’s secondary, most of whom will (likely) be watching from home on Monday.
Since Adam Thielen’s injury, the Vikings have run 51% of their early downs in 2-WR sets, the NFL average being 33% so far this season (via Sharp Football Stats).This intuitively makes sense with our understanding of Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen’s dominance in Minnesota’s offense. Stacking one or more of Thielen’s alternatives (if he’s not available in week 15) becomes even more enticing when looking deeper into the Bears’ depleted secondary, as well asMinnesota’s red zone opportunities. Chicago has allowed themost touchdowns per game to wide receivers (1.31) and second most to quarterbacks (2.23) through week 14, according to Pro Football Reference. WR K.J. Osborn and TE Tyler Conklin combine to make up 30.3% of the Vikings’ total end zone targetsthis season, trailing only Justin Jefferson, who owns a whopping share of 39.4%.
Almost any stack consisting of Jefferson, Osborn, and/or Conklin alongside Quarterback Kirk Cousins can be seen as a sound choice this week. Considering the Bears are currently 6.5-point underdogs at home on DraftKings (DK), visualizing a possible game script makes the idea of Bears WR Darnell Mooney or TE Cole Kmet joining that lineup even moreintriguing. Mooney (24%) and Kmet (17.2%) have the two highest target shares on the offense, making up 38.6% of Chicago’s red zone targets this season as well (via PFF). Minnesota allows 45.1 DK points per game and 195.8 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL this season. In a game with plenty of red flags for Chicago’s defense, trailing throughout this matchup may bode well for the pass catchers due to increased volume alongside an already present usage in the team’s offense. One of the tell-tale signs for future usage and increased efficiency is a receiver seeing their workload increase via the slot. Darnell Mooney getting work here makes both his and Quarterback Justin Fields’ lives easier with schemed up separation, leading to higher probability passes.
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Darnell Mooney Slot Production (Data via PFF)
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2021 |
Snap % |
Target % |
Yards/Route Run |
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Wk 1-9 |
38.7% |
31% |
1.01 |
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Wk 10-14 |
50% |
52.9% |
2.46 |
With teammate Allen Robinson on the reserve/COVID-19 list for this NFC North battle, Mooney provides value for any DFS lineup at his given price, alongside the previously discussed Minnesota Vikings stack(s). With so much uncertainty residing in the remaining week 15 slate, it’s crucial to take advantage of known variables to craft any multitude of matchups into your favor.
Rams
S. Michel | $5,800 | DK RB5
D. Henderson Jr. | $5,500 | DK RB7
V. Jefferson Jr. | $5,400 | DK WR8
O. Beckham Jr. | $4,900 | DK WR10
Seahawks
F. Swain | $3,400 | DK WR19
G. Everett | $3,600 | DK TE4
The Rams are seekingtheir third straight win after an impressive road victory last week against the Cardinals. Another NFC West matchup in week 15 against the Seahawks gives Los Angeles theopportunity to line up against dynamic Quarterback Russell Wilson. Unfortunately for Wilson, his offense will be without top receiver Tyler Lockett, Right Tackle Brandon Shell, and lead back Chris Carson. Many rightfully feel their skin crawl when associating the name “Metcalf” with previous matchups against the Rams, and more specifically, all-pro corner Jalen Ramsey.Some argue that Lockett missing this week 5 rematch bodes well for Metcalf’s fantasy implications, regardless of the defensive matchup because of an uptick in target opportunities. Regardless of your opinion on those matters, I think it’s well worth it to consider some cheap alternatives to toss in your lineup(s), depending on your risk tolerance. WR Freddie Swain (DK WR19) and TE Gerald Everett (DK TE4) very likely make up the opportunities with Lockett out this week, and Everett has already noticed an increase in targets heading into the matchup against Los Angeles. In the first nine weeks of 2021, Everett had 11% of Seattle’s targets. Since week 10, Everett has a team target share of 17.3% (via PFF). These cheaper alternatives to Metcalf in Seattle, along with the Rams’ Van Jefferson Jr. and Odell Beckham Jr. to Cooper Kupp, respectively, make for solid plays in the Monday/Tuesday slate of games. 
Rams RB Darrell Henderson appears to very likely be suiting up against Seattle this week, his last game played being week 12 against Green Bay. Sony Michel took the bulk of the backfield work throughout Henderson’s absence this season, and as we can see in this visual of cumulative workload between the two backs, Henderson has been a greater staple (when healthy) withboth the ground and passing attacks for Los Angeles. The dashed portions for Michel’s work this season are carries/receiving routes in games without Darrell Henderson playing.
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Rams Personnel Frequency | Early Downs |
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% Of Plays |
D. Henderson (10 games) |
Without D. Henderson (3 games) |
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1-1 (3WR) |
90% |
68% |
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1-2 (2WR) |
10% |
28% |
Based on the Rams’ offensive personnel splits with/without Henderson (via Sharp Football Stats), it’s clear that that the playbook expands with Henderson leading the backfield, especially as a weapon in Los Angeles’ passing attack.
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Seahawks Defense vs RB’s (Weeks 1-14) |
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Category |
Seahawks |
Rank |
NFL Average |
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Rec/Game |
7.5 |
32nd |
5.2 |
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Rec Yards/Game |
69.5 |
32nd |
40.2 |
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Total Yards/Game |
167.8 |
31st |
131.2 |
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DraftKings PPG |
31.2 |
31st |
24.3 |
Rams Head Coach Sean McVay indicating a split backfield between Henderson and Michel, with the possibility of riding a hot hand will most definitely raise eyebrows for anyone crafting stable DFS lineups (especially if you want that high floor). But it’s important to look at as much context available before rolling with a decision, because the matchup against Seattle’s run defense is fascinating based on the work other backfields have done against them this season.
Assuming Darrell Henderson is healthy and not on a strict pitch count this week against Seattle, his price ($300 cheaper than Michel), defensive matchup, and abilities in the passing game make him a medium risk-high reward play in Monday/Tuesday DFS lineups.
