The Rookie QB Struggle Bus has departed from the station! First stop: Week 3.
While most everyone in this class was challenged, we saw growth from a few prospects, and welcomed two new gun-slingers to the pack of starters. How long the newcomers will stick is still to be determined (insert Matt Nagy rant). Regardless, it was nice to see so many new faces in action this past Sunday.
This report will be organized in order of snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 3: 9.5 fantasy points (QB26)
Statistics: 22/34 (64.7%), 219 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 TD, 2 Int, 8.4 aDoT, 6 rush, 27 yards
PFF Grade: 50.2
Overview: Trevor Lawrence’s first half in week 3 was far and away his best half of football in 2021. He improved the timing of his throws, especially those beyond 10 yards and towards the sidelines. In the first two weeks, Lawrence went 4-of-15 on intermediate passes towards the sideline. In week 3, he converted 3-of-5, including a gorgeous touchdown toss to DJ Chark in the back of the end zone. Look how quickly he pulls the trigger once turning his head and locating Chark. Had he hesitated (as seen in his previous games), the ball would have been knocked away or intercepted.
What a pass by Trevor Lawrence and Chark to get both feet in! pic.twitter.com/Rx96D7Z0z1
— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 26, 2021
After the first half, however, Lawrence’s rookie woes came back to him. In the third quarter, the Jags established the ground game, calling eight straight runs on an eight-play, 75-yard scoring drive. The next time Lawrence attempted a pass, he threw an ugly flea flicker pick-six off his back foot. He finished the third quarter 0-for-3 with a pick six, after starting the first half 12-for-17, with 117 yards, a touchdown, and an interception that bounced off his receiver’s chest.
Outlook: Lawrence is not off to a hot start. He is currently second-worst in completion percentage over expected (CPOE, per rbsdm.com) and worst in PFF’s turnover-worthy play rate through three weeks. The biggest issue with Lawrence has been the timing of his throws. Normally, this can be disguised with short passes, but Bevell and Meyer aren’t going that route. Trevor Lawrence owns the third highest average depth of target amongst qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 45 attempts) through three weeks. Delayed timing on downfield passes is a recipe for disaster, so far yielding Lawrence’s league-high (tied) seven interceptions.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets, Week 3: 4.6 fantasy points (QB31)
Statistics: 19/35 (54.3%), 160 yards, 4.6 YPA, 2 Int, 7.8 aDoT, 1 rush, 2 yards
PFF Grade: 55.4
Overview: The Jets are a disaster. Thus far, they have scored two touchdowns – both in week 1, with the latest coming in garbage time. Week 3 was another bad one, as the Jets had zero plays from inside the red zone. Wilson finished bottom-five in the league in completion percentage , touchdowns, interceptions, yards per attempt, and sacks taken (five).
Zach Wilson looked uncomfortable against the Broncos. Only a few snaps into this contest, Wilson had already abandoned his mechanics. Wilson was shuffling his feet, short-arming throws, and appeared to be second-guessing his decisions far too often. In his defense… discomfort in the “pocket” (if it even qualifies as a pocket) makes sense.
Poor Zach Wilson. pic.twitter.com/DPxO2GmLqe
— Mike Kennedy (@MikeKennedyNFL) September 28, 2021
Outlook: Who might Trevor Lawrence be tied with for the league lead in interceptions? None other than Mr. INT himself, Zach Wilson. To Wilson’s credit, he has played some tough defenses, seeing Carolina, New England, and Denver. According to RBSDM, Wilson currently owns the third worst CPOE through three weeks. Wilson’s 55.2-percent completion percentage is third-worst in the league. It’s worth noting that Wilson isn’t getting much help, owning the highest percentage of dropped on-target throws. Zach Wilson’s fantasy numbers will improve over the course of the season, but he won’t crack the top-20 in scoring many (if any) weeks.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, Week 3: 3.9 fantasy points (QB32)
Statistics: 6/20 (30%), 68 yards, 3.4 YPA, 6.2 aDoT, 3 rush, 12 yards
PFF Grade: 46.8
Overview: I think Matt Nagy did his best to make us look like the idiots. I, for one, will not be fooled. The Chicago Bears gained one net passing yard. In a game where Justin Fields was sacked more times (nine) than he completed passes (six), it became increasingly difficult to blame Fields for his performance. Nagy tried to scheme up an RPO design to accommodate Fields’ collegiate experience, but it looked miserable. Receivers weren’t open, the interior line wasn’t getting any push, and edge rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney were getting one-on-one pass rush attempts against tight ends. Even on normal drop backs, it’s like the protection scheme of the offensive line was to just let one of the guys on the edge run free. Sure, it’s partially player execution, but what the hell was the plan here?
Seeing Justin Fields as QB1 😁
Seeing Myles Garrett sack Justin Fields 4.5 times 😨
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 26, 2021
Outlook: What a nightmare of a professional debut. Hopefully one day, we’re all sitting back in our recliners talking about the rookie season from Hell Justin Fields endured before kickstarting a long and lustrous career. Fields will start from rock-bottom, currently owning the lowest completion percentage over expected (CPOE) among all quarterbacks, along with a handful of other metrics ranked dead last. Fields rushing floor is still present, and hopefully more prevalent moving forward. Nagy can use Fields’ running ability to buy time and spread the field for their offense, but I have no faith. Let’s try and reevaluate Justin Fields after a week 4 game hosting the Lions.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots, Week 3: 14.6 fantasy points (QB22)
Statistics: 30/51 (58.8%), 270 yards, 5.3 YPA, 1 TD, 3 Int, 12.0 aDoT, 6 rush, 28 yards
PFF Grade: 69.2
Overview: Mac Jones quickly learned that it is not so easy playing NFL teams not named the Jets. Matched up against the Saints in week 3, Mac Jones threw a league-high three interceptions. The most (hilariously) unfortunate of them all came on the first play of the second half. While falling to the ground, Jonnu Smith bobbled the ball a couple of times, popping it straight up into the arms of the trailing Malcolm Jenkins. Before Smith could get off the turf, Jenkins was already celebrating in the end zone.
🏠📲 for NOLA!
Malcolm Jenkins picks off Mac Jones and takes it in for 6!
(via @Saints) pic.twitter.com/7kZK3koaom
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 26, 2021
The Patriots struggled to move the ball against the Saints defense. New Orleans committed to stopping the run and putting pressure on Mac Jones – but stopping the run was key. Jones’ play action looks were useless (2-for-6 with 16 yards and a pick) because there was no run threat. Collectively, the Patriots averaged 2.9 yards per carry with Mac Jones leading the team in rush yards.
Outlook: Mac Jones finally gets a warm ‘welcome-to-the-league’ the other rookies have been getting for three weeks now. Yet, he was still the highest scoring quarterback of his draft class. Mac Jones will continue to produce low-end QB2 numbers. He may have to sling it a bit more in week 4 as the Patriots welcome the Bucs for Sunday Night Football. With how exposed the Patriots offense was without a ground attack, I’d be surprised to see Mac Jones drop back 50 times again anytime soon.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans, Week 3: 10.7 fantasy points (QB25)
Statistics: 19/28 (67.9%), 168 yards, 6.0 YPA, 1 TD, 8.3 aDoT
PFF Grade: 56.4
Overview: Much to my dismay, Davis Mills was not horrifying on Thursday Night Football. In fact, he found himself in good company this week, tied for sixth-best adjusted completion percentage (83.3) with the likes of Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes. Mills played his game on Thursday night, throwing short passes quick and accurately. Of his 28 pass attempts, Mills went 15-of-16 for 111 yards and a touchdown on throws 1-9 yards downfield.
Outlook: I stand by my statement that Mills is the worst starting quarterback in the league. The difference between Mills and Taylor is tenfold. Of all quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs, Tyrod Taylor ranks first in expected points added per play (EPA/play), with 0.555. Mills is 27th of 34, at -0.007, per RBSDM. Of that same list, Mills ranks second-worst in PFF‘s turnover-worthy play rate, while Taylor ranks 11th-best.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers, Week 3: 6.1 fantasy points (QB30)
Statistics: 1 rush, 1 yard, 1 TD
PFF Grade: 61.3
Overview: Lance came in for a few snaps, but his one and only highlight was a 1 yard touchdown run with 0:02 left in the half. Gutsy call on Shanahan’s part, and credit to Lance for executing under that pressure.
Outlook: Jimmy Garoppolo has the QB1 job secured for now. The 9ers are a playoff team with hopes at contending again – it won’t make much sense to thrust Lance in there this year if the 49ers are still in contention. (Side note: I find it hilarious that Trey Lance outscored Zach Wilson and Justin Fields with only one play from the one-yard line)
