The rookie class came back down to earth in week 2 after strong performances in the season openers. Rookies starting this early in the season are expected to struggle, so don’t let a few ugly numbers get you down about their outlook this season. Not all rookies will find success, so breaking down their performances is imperative in predicting who will falter and who will breakout. Rookies featured in this report will qualify by achieving one of the following:
- 30 percent offensive snap share
- Scoring a touchdown
- Special circumstance
- i.e. high draft capital, relevant production despite snap share, unforeseen playing time due to game script, injury, etc.
The report will be organized in order of snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals, Week 2: 13.4 PPR fantasy points (WR39)
Week 2 Statistics: 93% snap share, 4 targets, 2 receptions, 54 yards, 1 TD, 20.8 aDoT, 1.74 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 60.3
Overview: Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd closed the gap on snap share, but Chase was still at the forefront. The rookie finished third in targets on the team in week 2. Despite that, Chase is second in the league among all pass-catchers in expected points added (EPA) with 17.7, per Player Profiler.
Chase was tagged with a drop to open the game, but in his defense, it was a tough catch to make. Joe Burrow whipped the ball into a tight window off a slant, between one defender on Chase’s back, and another coming across looking to make a big hit.
Ja’Marr Chase had a filthy touchdown catch against the Bears. Lined up at the bottom of the formation, watch the move he puts on the corner before running off screen. To break it down, Chase starts off the line working with deception towards a slow outside release. The corner opens his hips towards the sideline, and Chase immediately cuts to the inside and accelerates past him. Chase makes a nice adjustment to a ball placed on the inside, moving smoothly past the safety and causing him to crash into the trailing corner, waltzing into the end zone.
Just like at LSU. @JoeyB @Real10jayy__ #RuleTheJungle
📺: #CINvsCHI on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/R7Urpg37pj— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Chase deserved another big touchdown play, running past everyone only to have the ball thrown over his head and out of bounds. Burrow’s stat line at the bottom corner is a nice touch to this image – it was not his day in Chicago.
Outlook: After two weeks, Chase is ninth among all wide receivers in fantasy points per target, with 3.12. His highlights are mostly nine route touchdowns to this point. Normally that would concern me, but not with Chase. Ja’Marr Chase runs sharp routes underneath, forcing defenders to narrow their cushion off the line of scrimmage. He can stop with ease in the intermediate range, making defensive backs stay on their heels when he runs past the sticks in case he breaks. By the time he runs past defenders on a go route, he’s got them stacked well before the ball arrives, rendering them useless. Ja’Marr Chase wins all over the field.
In week 3, the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh for a division rivalry game. The Steelers pass defense will be the best Chase has seen thus far. I expect him to have another week like he did in week 2, likely seeing a few more targets with similar production. Slot him in as a WR3 or FLEX play.
Dyami Brown, Washington Football Team, Week 2: 6.4 PPR fantasy points (WR65)
Week 2 Statistics: 87% snap share, 6 targets, 3 receptions, 34 yards, 15.2 aDoT, 0.76 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 55.0
Overview: Dyami Brown’s production in week 2 was highlighted by a deep dig route, finding a soft spot in zone coverage and going way up to snag the ball in traffic.
Dyami Brown climbs the ladderpic.twitter.com/bQp0JyXTNA
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 17, 2021
Of his six targets, Brown saw four in the redzone, with the only catch coming off a quick slant inside the 10-yard line. Both of Brown’s targets thrown to the end zone were uncatchable.
Outlook: Dyami Brown averaged 20 yards-per-reception his final two seasons at UNC. He was selected as a premiere deep threat with room to improve as a route runner. The efficiency he experienced in college has not yet come to fruition in the pros, currently ranking 189th among all receivers in expected points added (EPA), per Player Profiler. Additionally, he ranks 19th among receivers in average cushion given by defenders pre-snap, at 5.47 yards. Defenses know he is one-dimensional, challenging him to win as a route runner or after a short catch. Brown is not yet worth a roster spot in redraft, and there are better options to target in dynasty formats.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, Week 2: 3.6 PPR fantasy points (WR85)
Week 2 Statistics: 84% snap share, 7 targets, 2 receptions, 16 yards, 23.6 aDoT, 0.59 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 59.7
Overview: The five miscued targets between Hurts and Smith in week 2 were not by fault of Smith. The reigning Heisman Trophy Winner had to fight for each ball thrown his way, resulting in two defensive pass interference penalties called, with two other non-calls that could have easily swayed our perspective on his day.
Hurts will need to do a better job with his deliveries moving forward. Through two weeks, DeVonta Smith’s catch rate is 53.3-percent, good for 69th among all wideouts. However, his true catch rate, which divides receptions by catchable targets, is 88.9-percent, ranking 39th in the league, per Player Profiler.
Outlook: Don’t panic on Smith. He is the focal point in the Eagles offense, leading the team in targets in each half of week 2. Don’t just take my word for it – YPF’s own Alex Johnson dove further:
Devonta Smith was a fantasy dud in Week 2. However, he’s a screaming buy.
The dude actually had a higher target share (29%) than he did in Week 1 (23%). He was also 6th in air yards (168), accounting for 49.7% of the team’s total. It’s obvious he’s the alpha in the passing game pic.twitter.com/rpVP9dBmjO
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) September 21, 2021
Elijah Moore, New York Jets, Week 2: 8.7 PPR fantasy points (WR55)
Week 2 Statistics: 78% snap share, 8 targets, 4 receptions, 47 yards, 14.4 aDoT, 1.52 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 67.4
Overview: Elijah Moore took a major step forward in week 2, finishing as the Jets leader in wide receiver snap share, and second in targets. Moore hasn’t been able to get much going with the ball in his hands, tallying a total of five yards after the catch (YAC) in two weeks. He’s too talented not to be schemed in space. Mike LeFleur needs to redesign his short passing game and create easy throws for Zach Wilson to target open playmakers in space. Wilson isn’t comfortable in this offense, and it’s bleeding into the efficiency of his receiving corps.
Outlook: There are two talented rookie pass-catchers tied to anemia in New York. Kadarius Toney is a phantom, while Elijah Moore is overworking to produce. Through two weeks, Elijah Moore is ninth among all wide receivers in unrealized air yards (air yards on targets not caught) with 134. To compare, Moore has 39 completed air yards to start the season (Player Profiler). If Zach Wilson can figure out how to connect with Moore downfield, it will open everything else up for him underneath. There is potential, but I am not one to believe in a Jets offense. Moore hasn’t been able to beat out Braxton Berrios yet, but he’s due. Berrios’ spotlight gives dynasty managers an open window to buy low on Moore.
Elijah Moore beyond 20+ yards downfield
– 5 targets (3rd most)
– 1 catchThe other 4 targets were uncatchable passes
— Jarad Evans (@PFF_Jarad) September 20, 2021
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, Week 2: 8.8 PPR fantasy points (WR54)
Week 2 Statistics: 64% snap share, 7 targets, 6 receptions, 48 yards, 0.7 aDoT, 1.14 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 65.4
Overview: This game wound up to be a wash with Tua Tagovailoa sustaining a rib injury after just three attempts. The Dolphins were not prepared to play with Jacoby Brissett at the helm and it showed. The good news (for Waddle’s fantasy perspective) is that the Dolphins struggle to contain even four-man pass rushes, so the underneath targets will be plenty.
I like the creativity of his screen looks, bringing him in motion from the outside, closer to the offensive line. The line jailbreaks and gets out in front, but the center (no. 63) lags in turning upfield. Had he done so, he might’ve given Waddle the one extra block needed to convert this third-and-long.
Alright! Our first well executed passing play of the game here. Simple little screen out to Jaylen Waddle. Blockers get there and they almost pick up the first on a 3rd & 15. pic.twitter.com/PNKI6HQcyn
— George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) September 20, 2021
Outlook: As a Dolphins fan, I love Jaylen Waddle, but boy would it be nice to have a quarterback and an offensive line capable of protecting him right now. As seen in week 2, Waddle running screens, flats, and underneath drag routes isn’t going to move the ball efficiently. Given a full week to work with Brissett as the starter, I expect Waddle’s route tree to open back up in week 3, regressing back towards the 10.5 average depth of target (aDoT) we saw in week 1. With Will Fuller returning this week and Brissett manning the offense, I’m slotting Jaylen Waddle as a fringe WR4 against an average Raiders pass defense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, Week 2: 4.8 PPR fantasy points (WR72)
Week 2 Statistics: 60% snap share, 5 targets, 3 receptions, 18 yards, 9.0 aDoT, 0.64 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 52.1
Overview: Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that the drop concerns he came into the league with were warranted in week 2. St. Brown’s two targets that weren’t caught were both registered as drops. Additionally, as a receiver that was touted for his yards after catch (YAC) upside, St. Brown has not been able to find any space, collecting just one yard after the catch on five receptions thus far.
Amon-Ra had one target in each of the first three quarters, then two on the last possession of the game. St. Brown needs to create more separation and work zones more efficiently if he wants more quality looks. He currently ranks 49th among wide outs in average target separation with 1.56 yards, per Player Profiler.
Outlook: St. Brown is comfortably in control of the slot position for the Lions, but the targets most slot receivers see are going to the running backs and tight end in this offense. The need in this offense is on the perimeter, which isn’t part of St. Brown’s game.
Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers, Week 2: 4.7 PPR fantasy points (WR73)
Week 2 Statistics: 51% snap share, 3 targets, 3 receptions, 17 yards, -1.0 aDoT, 0.71 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 56.4
Overview: Terrace Marshall’s introduction to the league has been tough sledding. If you were a preseason believer in him, hold firm – good things could be on the horizon for him soon, much in a way that college teammate Justin Jefferson experienced last season. In week 1, Marshall was primarily the slot receiver, lining up inside for 79.2-percent of his snaps. In week 2, Marshall’s slot alignment dipped to 48.5-percent of his snaps, stationed out wide for 54.2-percent of his snaps. Interestingly enough, lining up on the perimeter did not yield more efficiency or downfield looks, as Marshall’s average depth of target went from 8.2 in week 1 to -1.0 in week 2.
Outlook: Monitor CMC’s injury from week 3’s TNF performance. I was not part of the Terrace Marshall preseason hype train because there simply aren’t enough targets in the Panthers offense to produce four fantasy relevant options (nor is Sam Darnold that guy, but that’s a different story). CMC’s absence leaves a plethora of open targets that will not go to Chubba Hubbard. With a more versatile role and more opportunity, Marshall could pick up steam in the coming weeks. Keep this in mind as we wait to hear the severity of McCaffrey’s injury.
Anthony Schwartz, Cleveland Browns, Week 2: 0.0 PPR fantasy points (WR118)
Week 2 Statistics: 49% snap share, 1 targets, 0 receptions, 16.0 aDoT
Week 2 PFF Grade: 44.5
Overview: This is exactly the performance I expected out of Schwartz in his rookie season. He’s an unpolished wide receiver who kills with his straight-line speed, but doesn’t have much else to offer. Head coach Kevin Stefanski worked fellow rookie Demetric Felton into the game plan in week 2. Felton’s game is the opposite of Schwartz’s. Felton’s targets are exclusively screen passes (-2.0 average depth of target (aDoT)), while Schwartz gets the vertical deep shots (23.0 aDoT).
Outlook: Schwartz was a nine-route decoy in week 2. After an 11.6 PPR-scoring week 1, I wrote, “I’m afraid this will be the high-end of Schwartz’s scoring variance on the season.” With Odell coming back this week, Schwartz will assume the same role he did in week 2. He’s doesn’t have the talent to win at the professional level yet.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals, Week 2: 24.4 PPR fantasy points (WR6)
Week 2 Statistics: 46% snap share, 8 targets, 7 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD, 3.9 aDoT, 4.79 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 71.5
Overview: The bulk of Rondale Moore’s production in week 2 (14.7 of his fantasy points, to be exact) came on a scramble cross-body touchdown pass from Kyler Murray. Moore caught the pass like a punt, waiting on the sideline for the ball to arrive, before turning upfield and tacking on 40 yards after the catch with no one to beat. That play, along with the fact that nearly every other target of Moore’s is a screen look, propelled Moore atop the yards after catch per reception (YAC/R) average among receivers with double-digit targets. The next closest player is Deebo Samuel, 3.8 YAC/R behind Rondale Moore.
Rondale Moore is a human highlight reel. He is underdeveloped and undersized as a wideout, but Moore possess insane athleticism with a stunning ability to decelerate and force missed tackles. Watch how he sprints to defenders, stops, sinks into his cut, and changes direction before they can even brace to hit him. Unreal.
Rondale Moore is getting his feet under him.. sky-high potential pic.twitter.com/biPiqy5QkP
— Dylan Lowe (@DylanLoweNFL) September 19, 2021
Outlook: I need more Moore. As seen by his 4.79 yards per route run (Y/RR), Moore’s utilization rate when on the field is unbelievable. He was fourth in wide receiver snap share yet first in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I don’t like his snap share at all, but Moore might be an anomaly to the “more snaps equals more productivity” theory. It’s becoming glaringly obvious that when Moore is on the field, Kliff Kingsbury wants to get him the ball.
Moore is the most difficult player to project. He doesn’t quite have the savviness as a receiver to take over as a full-time starter, but he is displaying all-time efficiency for a rookie gadget player. There will not be many more games this season where Rondale Moore out-targets DeAndre Hopkins; at least not until Rondale Moore can further develop his route tree. Give it a couple weeks and buy him high in dynasty.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans, Week 2: 4.8 PPR fantasy points (WR72)
Week 2 Statistics: 3% snap share, 1 targets, 1 receptions, 32 yards, 12.0 aDoT, 16.0 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 92.9
Overview: Collins came in and had a great catch and run on his only target. He left the game with a shoulder injury that the team considered “significant.”
Outlook: The details on Collins have not surfaced yet. Collins is now on the IR, unavailable until at least week 6.
