The Middle Round Quarterback Strategy Is The Way To Go In 2021
I recognized fairly early in my fantasy football playing career that I didn’t need to draft my quarterback in the early rounds. I knew that if I built a team with a strong stable of running backs and wide receivers, I could afford to wait to take my quarterback. Now, I didn’t just instinctively know this from the start. I learned through experience. In my first ever fantasy football draft back in the summer of 2007, I took Marc Bulger of the Rams as my quarterback. I don’t remember exactly when I took him, but I believe it was pretty early in the draft. After all, he was a Pro-Bowler the year prior. Well, it turns out 2007 was the beginning of the end for Bulger. I was forced to turn to the waiver wire for a replacement a few weeks in. I was fortunate to pick up new Browns starter Derek Anderson, yes that Derek Anderson. He had a Pro Bowl season that year and, along with Braylon Edwards at wide receiver, I won my league’s championship.
The next year, I still hadn’t learned my lesson at quarterback and took Tom Brady very early in my draft. Brady was coming off his 50 touchdown season and was ready to run it back with Randy Moss. This was 2008. Brady didn’t even make it through the first quarter of Week 1 before Bernard Pollard tackled him by the knees and ended his season. I was forced to go back to the waiver wire for my quarterback again. This time, I added Kurt Warner who resurrected his career with a Pro Bowl season and Super Bowl run with the Cardinals that year. Like Anderson and Edwards the year before, I rode Warner and Anquan Boldin to another championship. Two years later, it was Michael Vick as my waiver wire hero, leading several of my squads to league titles while he revived his career.
This taught me I can find guys late in drafts or off the waiver wire and still have success at the quarterback position. I began subscribing to the late-round quarterback strategy quite religiously, with plenty of success. It’s been almost strictly how I approach the position over the last decade. I’ve had successful seasons streaming guys like Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford. But in 2021, I’m looking at the position through a different lense. The quarterback position—and the market’s view of the position—has evolved over the last few years, and that evolution has reached a crescendo in 2021.
A New Era Of Quarterback
The rushing quarterback has almost become the “new normal” in the NFL. For the first time ever, we saw more than 2,000 rush attempts from quarterbacks in 2020. We’ve known for years that quarterbacks who run often provide an advantage—a cheat code, if you will—in fantasy football. Rich Hribar coined this phenomenon “The Konami Code.” But what is different now is that rather than having either highly efficient pocket passers or running quarterbacks, we have guys that can do both at a high level. Seven of the top-eight quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2020 had at least 55 rush attempts. The eighth was Aaron Rodgers who had an MVP season and 48 passing touchdowns to make up for it. And Matt Ryan was the only guy in the top-12 with fewer than 30 rush attempts. (4For4.com)
This is the new age of the position. We have to recognize this reality and understand what it means for our fantasy teams. The dual-threats score a lot more fantasy points because they eat up yards on the ground while also still throwing efficiently. Their ceilings (and floors) are much higher than what we are used to from quarterbacks of yesteryear. There are enough of these true dual-threat quarterbacks to make this evolution a real change in our game, but not enough to where all 32 teams are rolling out these prototypes just yet. This means it’s becoming more important to make a point of targeting these guys in fantasy drafts. And the market has recognized this as well. It’s why we see these quarterbacks going in the early and middle rounds of drafts this year. Of course, this will make it far more difficult to make the late-round quarterback strategy work or to effectively stream the position.
A study done by TJ Hernandez at 4For4, discovered that from 2015-2019, the QB10 averaged just under 18 fantasy points per game, while the QB20 averaged about 16. In 2020, however, the QB10 averaged about 21 Fantasy points per game. The QB20 still averaged 16. That’s a massive difference. These results are directly related to the increase in quarterbacks who run often. The top-10 quarterbacks last year averaged 416.5 rush yards on the season. QBs 11-20 averaged 163.8.
Late-Round QB Has Become Sub-Optimal
As I mentioned, this trend has made it more difficult to find quarterbacks outside the top-10 who we can target in the late rounds of drafts. The point of drafting a quarterback late has never been because it doesn’t matter who we roll out there. It’s been because we can find breakouts in the later rounds like Lamar Jackson in 2019 or Josh Allen in 2020. What do these guys both have in common? They are highly productive runners. It’s why we are seeing a mostly-unproven Jalen Hurts going as early as he’s been going in drafts. A few years ago, we’d be able to get him in the double-digit rounds. And you better believe Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and even Taysom Hill would be going several rounds earlier if only we knew they’d start games early in the year. Even still, we’re seeing them come off the board in the 9th/10th round on Underdog because the market understands just how dominant for fantasy football they will be whenever they get their chance.
Otherwise, we don’t really have these great late-round breakout candidates in 2021. There’s no Jackson or Allen available in the late rounds this year. Instead, we’re seeing Hurts and Joe Burrow going in the single-digit rounds when they almost definitely would’ve been rounds 12+ picks just a few years ago. Even if we do think there is a guy worth targeting late, the penalty is much greater than in years past if we miss, as indicated by the steeper drop off from QB10 to QB20 than we used to see.
Streaming Options Are Limited
Naturally, if our late-round quarterback well is dried up, the undrafted options are less appealing as well. As I mentioned earlier, the drop off in points from QB10 to QB20 is much more significant than in years past. It was the closeness in points per game that allowed us to be able to reliably stream when needed. To stream quarterback we have to be able to predict which guys available on the waiver wire will have a big game in any particular week. It’s doable, but quarterback rushing production is far more predictable than quarterback passing yards and especially touchdowns. Again, this also translates to draft day. That’s why we see all these rushing QBs coming off the board early, which makes it harder to find those late-round breakouts and, in turn, undrafted streaming options. Simply put, the supply of undrafted quarterbacks that can post high-end fantasy points in a given week (or season) is lower than it’s ever been.
Conclusion: The Optimal Strategy is Mid-round QB
It’s obvious why we need to shift our thinking about quarterback strategy this year. Middle-round quarterback is the new late-round strategy. We’re not looking for pocket passers any longer. We want these guys who can run the ball. I’m not saying to spend an early pick—I still think that’s suboptimal. But once we get past the fifth round, it’s time to consider guys like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Jalen Hurts, among others. Even guys like Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannehill provide more rushing upside than traditional pocket passers. It depends on your league format and settings, of course, but generally, you should lock-in your quarterback within the first 10 rounds.
