In support of: Project Hope
Founded in 1958, Project HOPE is a renowned global health and humanitarian relief organization. Our lifesaving work addresses the world’s greatest public health challenges, transforming lives and uplifting communities.
Nominated by Matthew McCarthy (@Matthodical1)
“After such a world altering event like the pandemic just was, having Project Hope be able to reach communities in underdeveloped or financially struggling regions of the world and receive medical care is as vital as ever. Being able to provide aid in various disasters and danger zones and help the local population learn and administer aid is literally life changing for so many. Go Falcons and go Project Hope.“
#Project32 Menu
2020 Recap
Division: NFC South
2020 Finish: 4-12 (4th in NFC South)
2020 Tendencies:
- Passing Ratio: 61% (9th)
- Neutral Game Script: 62% (4th)
- Offensive Scheme: West Coast
Personnel Groupings:
- 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 61%
- 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 15%
- 21 Personnel (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) = 12%
- 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 6%
- 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 3%
- 01 Personnel (0RB, 1TE, 4WR) = 2%
- 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 1%
- 20 Personnel (2RB, 0TE, 3WR) = 1%
Coaching Room
Head Coach: Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith, 38, was hired as the new head coach of the Atlanta Falcons replacing Dan Quinn who is now the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator. Smith will pull double duty in Atlanta as both the head coach and the play caller on game day. Smith has spent the last two years as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee where he had one of the top offenses in the NFL. In 2020, the Titans ranked 3rd in total yards (6,343), 2nd in rushing yards (2,690), and 4th in points per game (30.7). It is clear why Arthur Smith was brought to Atlanta. The roster build is a bit different as the Falcons do not have Derrick Henry, but they do have Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, and Mike Davis. Smith ran 12 personnel more than anybody last season at 35%, which was 15% more than the league average. He also ran 11 personnel significantly less than the rest of the league in 2020. Why is this important? From a fantasy perspective it means that Hayden Hurst should out-perform his ADP, Kyle Pitts should make an immediate impact, and Calvin Ridley could finish as a top five wide receiver in fantasy points per game. You could also see more 13 personnel with the additions of Lee Smith and Jaeden Graham. Not to mention, the addition of Mike Davis gives the backfield an upgrade over Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, and Ito Smith.
Overall Rank: 19th/32
OL Room
LT Jake Matthews – PFF 75.5, Pass Blocking 84.0, Run Blocking 57.5
Jake Matthews provides stability at the left tackle position and has produced an average of 70 (PFF Overall Grade) or better in the last seven years. Matthews does an outstanding job in the passing game and should improve in the run game as Arthur Smith will lean heavily on a zone run scheme which is more suited to Matthews’ strengths.
LG Jalen Mayfield (Rookie)
Jalen Mayfield should plug in as the opening day starter at left guard for the Falcons. Some scouts had him as a first or second round grade, but he slipped to the third round and the Falcons grabbed him with the 68th overall pick. He only had 15 starts at the collegiate level and did not have a strong pro day which may have played a role in dropping to the third round. He lacks the arm length to play the tackle position, but the Falcons feel he could be a great fit at guard where he can take advantage of his power and quickness off the snap.
C Matt Hennessy – PFF 47.0, Pass Blocking 28.6, Run Blocking 59.9
Hennessy only played 225 snaps in 2020 allowing 1 sack and 10 total pressures. He did not grade well according to Pro Football Focus, but he did have some bright moments playing both guard and center in spot situations. He will have competition from Drew Dalmon who was drafted in the fourth round out of Stanford, but I believe Hennessy wins the job and will be the Week 1 starter.
RG Chris Lindstrom – PFF 77.1, Pass Blocking 70.3, Run Blocking 76.6
Chris Lindstrom ranked 9th in overall PFF grade, 20th in pass blocking, and 11th in run blocking while playing 1,122 snaps in 2020. He was very powerful and dominant at times and the Falcons have big expectations for Lindstrom entering the 2021 NFL season.
RT Kaleb McGary – PFF 64.3, Pass Blocking 58.5, Run Blocking 65.9
Kaleb McGary was drafted out of the University of Washington as the 31st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He struggled in his rookie season with an overall PFF Grade of 53.0 but improved in both the pass and run game in 2020. He can be an absolute road grader in the run game, but he does struggle against speed on the outside in the passing game.
New Toys: Josh Andrews
Old News: Alex Mack (14/14), James Carpenter (13/13)
Overall Rank: 22nd/32
QB Room
Matt Ryan (QB15)
Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts with 626 in 2020 which is the third most of his 13-year career. He also finished in the top five in red zone attempts (90), deep ball attempts (76), passing yards (4,581), air yards (5,264), and completed air yards (2,963). I don’t expect the Falcons to throw 42 times a game in 2021 with Arthur Smith calling the offense, but I don’t expect it to drop by much either. Matt Ryan lost Julio Jones in an off-season trade to the Tennessee Titans, but he gained the best tight end prospect in the history of the NFL in Kyle Pitts. The passing game is still very much alive and with Matty Ice at quarterback with a career 65.4 completion percentage, I believe he cracks the 5,000-yard mark in 2021. Yes, I know, they play 17 games now….
Fantasy Outlook
Passing: 659 attempts, 67.7%, 5261 yards, 38 touchdowns
Rushing: 27 attempts, 85 yards, 0 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 345.0
New Toys: AJ McCarron
Old News: Matt Shaub (1/0)
Position Fantasy Rank: 16th/32
RB Room
Mike Davis (RB20)
Mike Davis has a clear lane as the RB1 in Atlanta after arriving as an unrestricted free agent coming off his best year as a pro for the Carolina Panthers. In 2020 he replaced the injured Christian McCaffrey and finished with 1,015 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns paving the way for him to cash in with the Atlanta Falcons. He showed great versatility as both a runner and a receiver hauling in 59 receptions for 373 yards and an 84.3% catch rate. With the zone scheme that Arthur Smith runs and the potential in the passing game, Davis should see lighter boxes and could have his first 1,000-yard rushing season of his NFL career.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 238 attempts, 976 yards, 7 touchdowns
Receiving: 59 targets, 46 receptions, 328 yards, 2 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 230.8
New Toys: Wayne Gallman
Old News: Todd Gurley (15/15), Brian Hill (16/1), Ito Smith (14/0)
Fantasy Position Rank: 19th/32
WR Room
Calvin Ridley (WR3)
Calvin Ridley could finish as a top five fantasy wide receiver in 2021. In 2020, he was targeted 143 times and turned that into 90 receptions and 1,374 yards to go along with 9 touchdowns. He finished number one in the NFL in air yards (2,063), deep targets (40), completed air yards (1,095), and second in red zone targets (22). Ridley can win at all three levels and there is no question that Matty Ice will be looking for Ridley early and often in this offense.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 178 targets, 117 receptions, 1726 yards, 12 touchdowns
Rushing: 5 attempts, 28 yards, 0 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 364.9
Russell Gage (WR62)
Russell Gage benefited more than anybody with Julio Jones missing seven games in 2020. Gage started 8 games last season and finished with 72 receptions for 786 yards and should be the third receiver when they go 11 personnel. He will have some competition from Olamide Zaccheaus who was coming along as a deep threat late in the season before suffering a toe injury.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 92 targets, 61 receptions, 603 yards, 6 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 157.2
New Toys: Cordarelle Patterson, Frank Darby
Old News: Julio Jones
Position Fantasy Rank: 16th/32
TE Room
Kyle Pitts (TE3)
Kyle Pitts enters his rookie season as the best draft prospect ever at the TE position. With a wingspan of 83-3/8 inches at 6’6 and 245 pounds, he’s going to be a problem. Did I mention he ran a 4.44 at his Pro Day ranking him in the 99th percentile? Well, he did. The reality is he can beat you from anywhere on the field and will be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Kyle Pitts has a chance to beat the NFL record for rookie tight ends in receptions, yards, and touchdowns and I’m here for it.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 119 targets, 82 receptions, 1121 yards, 9 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 248.0
Hayden Hurst (TE27)
Hayden Hurst is another former first round draft pick at the tight end position for the Atlanta Falcons after the Baltimore Ravens selected him 25th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He was traded to Atlanta prior to last season and returned a profit immediately. Hurst finished with 56 receptions for 571 yards and six touchdowns. There will be opportunities for Hurst in the passing game even with the addition of Kyle Pitts. He will provide a security blanket over the middle of the field and at the first down marker when teams try to figure out how to take away Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 59 targets, 39 receptions, 411 yards, 3 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 98.3
New Toys: Lee Smith
Old News: Luke Stocker (16/13)
Position Fantasy Rank: 3rd/32
2021 Full Player Projections
Make Your Own Projections With Our Template!
Strength of Schedule (SOS): #25 (.479 122-133-1)
2021 Predicted Finish: 7-10 (3rd NFC South)
Note: all projections are PPR scoring
