Can We Trust Rookie Running Backs: 2021 Edition
Last offseason I wrote an article on rookie running backs and whether they could be trusted to put up numbers in year one.
The premise – based on where in the first two rounds of the NFL draft they were taken, what are the chances of getting production from them in year one as a total, the first half of the year, and the second half of the year.
The conclusion – unless they’re drafted with a top 16 pick, there’s risk and that risk increases towards the end of the season. I noted that in the range where Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted, 71-percent of rookie running backs had a drop in production from the first half to the second half of the season (bingo!). And the main takeaway – recognise the risk and don’t overdraft them.
A year later and I’ve updated the numbers to include 2020 results and apply them to the 2021 rookie running backs. A reminder on my parameters if you haven’t read the initial article, this includes all running backs drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft since 2010.
Elite Tier
I’m going to keep the same tiers as last year for consistency and will describe them along the way. The Elite Tier is picks 1-16 of the first round. There were no running backs drafted in this range in either 2020 or 2021 so nothing has changed.
- 67-percent chance of an RB1 season, driven largely by a first half performance
- Noticeable drop-off in the second half of the season
- 78-percent of players in this category scored less points in the second half of the season
Late Round One
- This was Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 who put up RB1 numbers in the first half and failed to even hit RB3 numbers in the second half
- Josh Jacobs had a similar trajectory in the prior year
- The only player from this range who has put up RB3 or better numbers in the second half of their rookie season was Doug Martin
- 75-percent of players in this range score less points in the second half than in the first
For 2021, both Najee Harris and Travis Etienne were drafted in this range. Buyer beware.
Top of the Second
- Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift are in this range from 2020
- Taylor and Swift actually improved the numbers from last season, with Taylor posting the single RB1 season in this range (RB2 in the first half, RB1 in the second) and Swift posting RB2 numbers throughout
- 77-percent of players in this range scored less points in the first half than in the second, an improvement from 82-percent a year ago
For 2021, Javonte Williams was drafted in this range.
The Back-End
- Cam Akers, JK Dobbins and AJ Dillon are in this range from 2020
- Dobbins was the only player of these three to put up an RB3 season with none of them posting RB3 or better numbers in the first half, Dobbins putting up RB2 numbers in the second half and Akers putting up RB3 numbers in the second half
- Only 25-percent of players in this range score less in the second half than in the first – the base is lower so they’re more likely to improve over the course of the season
There were no players drafted in this range in 2021.
Predicted Touches
Another thing I did last off-season was to create a prediction of overall touches for a rookie running back based on their draft position (using the same data set since 2010). Here’s what it predicted and how it turned out:
- Edwards-Helaire – predicted: 194 touches; actual: 217 touches (close)
- Swift – predicted: 188 touches; actual: 160 touches (close)
- Taylor – predicted: 175 touches; actual: 268 touches (way off)
- Akers – predicted: 152 touches; actual: 156 touches (very close)
- Dobbins – predicted: 145 touches; actual: 152 touches (very close)
- Dillon – predicted: 131 touches; actual: 48 touches (way off)
Other than a couple of outliers which you can probably write a narrative for (Taylor benefited from the Mack injury; Dillon was overdrafted and stuck on the bench) this was fairly predictive.
So what does it predict for the 2021 rookie running backs?
- Harris – predicted: 211 touches
- Etienne – predicted: 209 touches
- Williams – predicted: 188 touches
Let’s see what happens shall we!
Conclusion
I’m going to repeat a portion of what I said last year.
We should be wary of the rookie running backs, and we should be very wary of their draft price. Yes, some of these guys still have massive upside and could win leagues. But history tells us that rookie running backs drafted outside of the top 16 don’t have a great track record in their first year.
And while we look back at full-season numbers with some optimism, it is a risky business to invest draft capital in a position that has historically under-performed when you need them the most.
At the right price, they’re absolutely worth drafting in redraft leagues but don’t let rookie fever get you reaching too high and forgetting about that risk.
