In this article I’m going to dive into the 2020 and 2019 tight end classes to see what we were dealing with before Kyle Pitts came to town. All stats and metrics provided by PlayerProfiler.
2020
Per ESPN’s top 70 rookies for dynasty in 2020, Adam Trautman (TE1) was ranked 37th overall, and Cole Kmet (TE2) was right behind him at 38th. Trautman was selected in the third round by the Saints but he was stuck behind Jared Cook at the time, so he lost some dynasty appeal. Kmet secured better draft capital, second round to the Bears, but he was stuck behind an infamous tight end: Jimmy Graham. It’s fair to say that the 2020 class was not nearly as exciting as the 2021 draft class boasting Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth but let’s see if the 2019 class was any better.
2019
Per ESPN’s top 80 rookies for dynasty in 2019, T.J. Hockenson (TE1) was ranked 9th and Noah Fant (TE2) slotted in at 14th, while Irv Smith Jr (TE3) wasn’t far behind at 24th. Fant and Hockenson being teammates at Iowa turned some heads as they were the first two tight ends off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft. They were each selected in the first round but Hockenson was first off the board to the Lions at pick 8. Fant lasted awhile longer as the Broncos had traded down from pick 10 to 20, where they were able to get their guy while passing on the likes of Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock. Funnily enough they ended up selecting Lock later in the draft at pick 42 in the second round.
Looking back now they nailed that decision but it’s possible they should have continued to pass on Lock. Irv Smith came in a little quieter with second-round capital from the Vikings at pick 18. His landing spot was so seemingly poor with Kyle Rudolph still there that many faded him, but we’re talking about 2021 now and plenty of things have changed. Let’s break down each player’s profile a little bit and see who comes out on top in 2021.
2020
Adam Trautman – 24 years old
Profile
Coming in at 6’5” 255lbs Trautman had great size for a tight end but he left a lot to be desired in the speed department; He ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at the combine. He did have an excellent Breakout Age (BOA) of 19.6 though and dominated in all of his years at Dayton. As a true freshman he was able to secure 3 touchdowns on just 24 catches, and he continued this efficiency all throughout college. He was able to amass 2,295 yards on 178 catches with 30 touchdowns to his name, with 13 yards per reception (YPR).
Situation
Regardless of how well he was able to perform in college, he has not lived up to expectations in the NFL. As I said before he was forced to deal with Jared Cook this past year but now that Cook has left for the Los Angeles Chargers this is a big year for Trautman.
One of the biggest question marks in New Orleans right now is the QB situation. I am hopeful that Jameis Winston will be the starter with his improved vision, but should it be Taysom Hill then expectations will be tempered for Trautman. I expect him to own the starting role for the Saints this year and I’m looking forward to him returning to his college form. As of right now I have him ranked last out of the rest of the players on this list, but Winston has turned average guys into insane fantasy producers before so watch out for him.
Cole Kmet – 22 years old
Profile
Kmet was also gifted with the size required to be an elite tight end at 6’4” 262lbs, and despite being heavier than Trautman he had much better overall speed; Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at his combine. He was not as shifty as Trautman though and it showed in his college production.
As a freshman Kmet barely saw the field at Notre Dame, but he did come alive a little in his sophomore year: 15 catches for 162 yards with no touchdowns but boasting a 94% catch rate. His junior year is when he really came alive, with 43 catches for 515 yards and 6 touchdowns. Still not as impressive as Trautman’s production, but it is important to note that even though they were drafted in the same class Kmet is two years younger.
Situation
I am giving Kmet some slack as he was stuck behind Jimmy Graham for most of the year but Week 13 a switch was flipped, and the Bears gave Kmet a 95% snap share. He finished the year with an average snap share of 91% and saw 6 or more targets in 4 of 5 games. Even though he ended up stealing the spotlight, Graham was still the goal line tight end, and this led to Kmet only seeing three redzone targets. The Bears could save 7 million dollars if they cut Graham, and I am expecting them to take advantage of this, but the NFL works in mysterious ways.
Another thing to note with Kmet is that last year he was forced to deal with Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky, but we are all excited to see what Justin Fields brings to the Bears. With the climate the way it is right now I have Kmet as the second to last player on this list, but that could change once the news of Graham being cut is dropped.
2019
T.J. Hockenson – 23 years old
Profile
It seems obvious at this point but to be touted as one of the best tight ends in your class you need to be the right size, and Hockenson continues that streak: 6’5” 251 lbs. This is our first player with no true flaws in his profile from a combine perspective, running a reasonable 4.70 40-yard dash and scoring well in all of the other metrics. Hockenson only played two years at Iowa before declaring for the NFL draft in 2019, but he instantly showed out. As a 20 year old freshman he saw almost 40 targets and was able to bring in 3 touchdowns. He improved upon this as a sophomore with 62 targets on 760 yards with 6 touchdowns. In his freshman year he struggled catching the ball some with a 63% catch rate but improved to almost 80% the next year.
Situation
Look ahead to his first NFL game and he has an insane line of 6-131-1 to secure 25 fantasy points, and at this point he has everyone’s attention. Unfortunately, he ended up regressing from that insane Week 1 production and as he came down to earth the hype died down as well. He only managed to break 50 yards one other time that year and just one more touchdown before suffering an ankle sprain; This forced him to miss 4 games at the end of the season.
As we advance to 2020 Hockenson was able to average almost 11 fantasy points per game, with 6 touchdowns and over 700 receiving yards on 67 receptions. Hockenson has been lucky enough to play with one of the better quarterbacks in the league, Matthew Stafford, his whole career but this will be his first year with Jared Goff. In 2020 Hockenson was only able to bring in 66% of his targets and led the league with 11 drops and only brought down 25% of his contested catches. Hockenson was also privy to being the number one target on the offense this year due to Kenny Golladay’s persistent injuries but he failed to take full advantage.
I am expecting a very similar year from Hockenson in 2021, but it could be slightly worse or slightly better. The two main factors being: tight ends typically have a third year break out, but the downgrade of Stafford to Goff. Until I see something change from Hockenson or Goff I will have him as the second-best tight end on the list with the possibility to move up or down depending.
Noah Fant – 23 years old
Profile
I’m not sure if I need to keep repeating this but Fant comes in at 6’4” 249lbs, the same size we have been seeing from these top tier prospects and the same size we want to see. Fant was by far the fastest tight end on this list, running an insane 4.50 40-yard dash and he did much better in the other areas than anyone else on the list as well, Scoring in the 96th percentile or higher in every combine metric.
As I mentioned before Hockenson and Fant shared the field at Iowa, and although Fant arrived a year earlier he didn’t really see playing time until 2017 when Hockenson came in as a freshman. Fant was able to see 59 targets his sophomore year for almost 500 yards and 11 touchdowns. Yes, you read that right, 11 touchdowns. Similarly, to Hockenson he struggled to bring in all of the targets as he barely caught over 50%, but as their careers continue to parallel, he also improved on this the following year. Seeing 64 targets the next year with a 60% catch rate he was able to break that 500-yard milestone and still snagged 7 touchdowns.
Situation
Fant did not show out Week 1 like Hockenson did but he was able to post two 20-point games himself and saw a steady target share of 14% with 300 Yards After Catch (YAC) for 7th most in the league that year. I keep saying how similar their careers have been and it doesn’t stop here, Fant also missed time his rookie year but luckily it was only one game and it seemed to be a relatively minor shoulder sprain.
Advance to his sophomore year and Fant brings us two more 20-point games to Hockenson’s zero, but Hockenson was slightly more consistent as Fant only averaged 10.5 points per game. We continue to see Fant do immense work after the catch with 383 YAC for 3rd best in the league as well as increasing his target share to almost 20%. Fant boasted an incredible separation of 2.01 (how many yards from the nearest defender when targeted) and continued his streak of having a better true catch rate than Hockenson since they both entered the league.
The biggest things to look out for from Fant are again eerily similar to what Hockenson is dealing with: Third year break out and Drew Lock needs to be better. I expect both of these to occur this year, but we could see Teddy Bridgewater enter the scene and I am actually looking forward to it for Fant’s production. I have Fant as the best tight end on the list right now, but we need to watch out for Hockenson.
Irv Smith Jr – 22 years old
Profile
Alright we have come to our first tight end prospect who is outside of the size parameters, Smith is only 6’2” 242lbs. Smith did not perform as well as Fant with a 4.63 40-yard dash and had subpar scores in the other combine metrics, but he has shown some potential. To produce and see time on the field at a school like Alabama I find it hard to believe he does not have the talent to back up his draft capital. As a freshman he wasn’t on the field too much, but he did catch 14 targets for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns. We then see him explode with 44 catches for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns his sophomore year; 16 yards per reception is no small feat.
Situation
Unlike Fant and Hockenson, Smith did not have a clear path to starting. As I said before he was stuck behind Kyle Rudolph his first two years in the league so there is not nearly as much production as we would like. His rookie year was cluttered with two touchdowns and a couple weeks with five receptions but overall, it was quiet. Like Kmet’s 2020 season, Smith did see an average of 86% snap share the last three weeks of the year and this led to a Week 16 breakout where he saw 9 targets to bring in 6-53-2 for 23.3 fantasy points.
Smith’s biggest pro is that he has great hands, but his biggest flaw is that he only saw 47 targets. Which is great because with a 88% true catch rate he should handle the workload increase quite well now that Rudolph has left for the New York Giants.
I am expecting big things from Smith this year as Kirk Cousins often throws for 4,000 yards and he should be the third option this year behind Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. You may project Adam Thielen to still see good production this year, but I am far from convinced as he is almost 31 and he had an insane number of 14 touchdowns last year. I expect Smith to take over in the red zone as the lead target and hopefully sees a hefty target share increase. To end off the list I have Smith smack in the middle between the two classes.
Let’s recap what we just went over since there was a lot to decipher:
1st – Noah Fant: Third year breakout imminent and hopeful for QB progression
2nd – T.J. Hockenson: Third year breakout imminent and QB regression
3rd – Irv Smith Jr: Third year breakout hopeful and QB steady
4th – Cole Kmet: Second year advances guaranteed and QB upgrade
5th – Adam Trautman: Second year advances guaranteed and likely QB upgrade
